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Part F: Forecasts

Part F: Forecasts. Pasi Pekkinen pasi.pekkinen@navinova.com Navinova Oy . Global forecast. By 2006 LCS will generate $19,5 million Mobile LCS connections will rise from 2 million in 2001 to 565 million in 2006

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Part F: Forecasts

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  1. Part F:Forecasts Pasi Pekkinen pasi.pekkinen@navinova.com Navinova Oy

  2. Global forecast • By 2006 LCS will generate $19,5 million • Mobile LCS connections will rise from 2 million in 2001 to 565 million in 2006 • In 2006 operators total revenue will be $780 billion, of which $8 billion from LCS • Until 2004 information, tracking and call routing constitute bulk of LCS revenues at $4,7 billion • In 2005 revenues from l-commerce and advertising will be $8,4 billion, over half of all revenues

  3. Global forecast (cont.) • By 2006 most new devices support positioning • Users will mostly be interested in information: • navigational data, entertainment listings and weather forecasts • 550 million users in 2006 • Tracking and call routing more limited applications, yet 95 and 125 million users • Operators revenues mainly from information (consumers) and tracking services (vertical)

  4. Global ARPU ($) and Connections (1000s) 2001 2006 ARPU Users ARPU Users $ (1000s) $ (1000s) Information services 31 1 426 5 550 521 Tracking services 32 264 17 124 468 Call routing 5 238 5 94 307

  5. Revenues from LCS ($ million) Year 2001 2006 L-advertising 5 4444 L-commerce 61 9793 Others 545176 Total: 120 19 413 Operators share: 67 7958

  6. Regional forecasts • At the beginning of 2001 50% of LCS connections will be in Western Europe • Division of connections: Region 2001 2006 Western Europe 50% 32% Asia-Pacific 21% 18% North-America 19% 20% Middle East & Africa 9% 7% Central Asia 1% 11% Central-South America - 8% Central-East Europe - 4%

  7. Mobile LCS connections (1000s) Region 2001 2006 World 1 805 564 044 Western Europe 902 182 293 Finland 14 3 072 Sweden 23 5 331 Germany 140 34 737 France 91 24 220 Italy 137 34 566 UK 117 31 549

  8. Total revenues from LCS ($ million) Region 2001 2006 Total Operators Total Operators World 119 67 19 413 7 958 Western Europe 55 32 6 607 2 613 Finland 1 <1 116 45 Sweden 2 1 200 78 Germany 10 6 1 279 518 France 6 3 898 365 Italy 10 4 1 207 465 UK 8 5 1 200 463

  9. Mobile LCS connections (Finland) 9.10.2014 / PP Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 9

  10. Total market revenues and operators share (Finland) 9.10.2014 / PP Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 10

  11. Methodology • Forecasts include: • Applications: information, tracking, call routing, L-advertising, L-commerce • Covering: high and low precision techniques network, terminal & hybrid solutions • Mobile LCS connections: connections supporting positioning and used at least once a year

  12. Assumptions: Demand % of all LCS users per segment: Information Tracking Call Routing 2001 2006 2001 2006 2001 2006 Consumer 82% 100% 14% 22% 8% 13% Vertical 50% 79% 60% 100% 32% 51% Business 60% 80% 1% 18% 59%

  13. Assumptions: Revenues • Information services biggest proportion • Business model based on large volumes of low-priced enquiries • Increased competition from sponsored services and free content • Tracking services profitable in vertical segment • Coupons main element of L-advertising revenues • Operators revenues a proportion of L-commerce revenues 2001: 22-27% 2006: 7-10%

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