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NOAA CSI Meeting January 29 2009

° The Midwest Floods of Spring 2008 ___ Soil moisture sensitivity ---- Contribution to State of Climate Report ° “Chilly” Surface Temperatures --- Decadal cooling of Global sfcT: 1999-’08 --- US 2008 sfcT: likely lowest since 1996

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NOAA CSI Meeting January 29 2009

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  1. ° The Midwest Floods of Spring 2008 ___ Soil moisture sensitivity ---- Contribution to State of Climate Report ° “Chilly” Surface Temperatures --- Decadal cooling of Global sfcT: 1999-’08 --- US 2008 sfcT: likely lowest since 1996 ---Contribution to State of Climate Report ° October-December 2008 ___ La Nina & Npac SST effect NOAA CSI Meeting January 29 2009

  2. Is the Climate Warming or Cooling?    David R. Easterling NOAA/National Climatic Data Center Michael F. Wehner Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory   L    

  3. Contrarians • “The latest warming trend, which appears to have ended in 1998, is the result of the end of the Little Ice Age” Investor’s Business Daily, Nov., 2008      L    

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  9.     L    

  10.     L    

  11. Global Annual Surface Air Temperature, MPI-ECHAM CGCM A2 Forcing      L    

  12. Probability of 10 year Trend      L    

  13. 2008 US SFCT Annual Anomalies

  14. US SFCT Annual Anomalies:Observed C

  15. US SFCT Annual Anomalies:AMIP Simulated C

  16. 2008 US SFCT Annual Anomalies

  17. 2008 US SFCT Annual Anomalies:150 AMIP Runs C

  18. Observed October- December 2008 Anomalies

  19. Observed October - December 2008 200Z Anomalies

  20. Observed October- December 2008 Anomalies

  21. Simulated October- December 2008 Anomalies GOGA, 150-member multi-model

  22. Simulated October- December 2008 Anomalies Tropical SSTs, 150-member multi-model

  23. Simulated October- December 2008 Anomalies XTropical SSTs, 150-member multi-model

  24. Simulated OND 2008 150-member multi-model

  25. Observed October - December 2008 200Z Anomalies

  26. Simulated Response to October 2008 NPAC SSTs GFS Coupled Mixed Layer Runs

  27. Observed Conditions Since 1 January 2009

  28. Estimated Snow Depth 22 December 2008

  29. Estimated Snow Depth 27 January 2009

  30. What are the Official Forecasts for US winter climate? 0.5 month Lead JFM 0.5 month Lead DJF

  31. What are the Official Forecast for US winter climate? 0.5 month Lead DJF 0.5 month Lead JFM

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