1 / 23

Water Where is your future headed?

Water Where is your future headed?. Prof. Mike Young Research Chair, Water Economics and Management The University of Adelaide. - 1%. - 3%. Changes in rain and water supply. Sydney. - 25%. - 75%. If it gets drier. Less rain means

timothy-hayden
Download Presentation

Water Where is your future headed?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. WaterWhere is your future headed? Prof. Mike Young Research Chair, Water Economics and ManagementThe University of Adelaide

  2. - 1% - 3% Changes in rain and water supply

  3. Sydney - 25% - 75%

  4. If it gets drier • Less rain • means • much less run-off • much less water

  5. Melbourne

  6. Total River Murray System Inflows (including Darling River) WET DRY

  7. Re-live from 1938 2014

  8. Inflows plus Starting StorageSeason to date and last year > 2,500 GL storage used last year

  9. Lake Alexandrina Level - 0.5 m

  10. Salinity Lake Alexandrina

  11. Problems • Over-allocation • Over-entitlement • Interception • Inefficient storage management • Policy failure • Governance and administrative failure

  12. Mean supply 10,000 River & Storage Evap 2,000 Flow to sea 2,000 Deliverable water 6,000 Environment Use 1,500 Consumptive Use 4,500 0 Mean supply 7,000 River & Storage Evap 2,000 Flow to sea 2,000 Deliverable water 3,000 Environment Use 1,500 Consumptive Use 1,500 0 Adverse climate change In Mediterranean climates, a 10% decline in mean rainfall results in around a 30% decline in mean storage inflow 10% less rain water means a 67% reduction in allocations unless the system is resized

  13. Underlying problems • A dredge was put in the Murray Mouth in October 2002 – before the drought! Nature’s solution to this problem has been to debase the reliability of your entitlements until some-one fixes the system In a closed system when-ever one person takes more someone else or something else must get less

  14. Flow & allocation interception • Reliability debasing activities • Increased forestry • More farm dams • Increased irrigation efficiency • More groundwater development • More lined channels and more piped water • More salinity interception All high security impacts • Two Risks • Climate change • Bushfires

  15. Elements of a solution • Hydrological integrity - Complete and full accounting for all water use • Connected groundwater defined as part of the system • An amount set aside for evaporation and minimum flow to the sea • Remainder formally shared between the environment and users • A Cap such that the River gets the really big spills • Expertise-based governance

  16. Some Important Detail • An expertise-based Authority allocating according to clear objectives • A system entitlement register to define state and other entitlements • Entitlements defined as shares of high security and general security pools • Size of high security pool changes defined using a moving average • 100% carry forward of all unused allocations adjusted for evaporative losses + tradeable delivery entitlements • Entitlement trading as fast and cheaply as the ASX • Allocation trading like internet banking • One central and several independent river environmental trusts • No difference between environmental and other entitlements • Groundwater close to the river defined as surface water • Salinity credits assigned to those who create them • Distribution system managed by existing private and government corporations • Land-use control managed by states

  17. A three year agenda • Robust design and governance • A new system designed to cope with and facilitate change • Re-store reliability • Purchase and tear up water entitlements to offset the impact of interception • Re-balance the share • Water for the environment without wrecking the market • Review river-configuration • Explore opportunities to reduce evaporative losses and facilitate efficient management of environmental water

  18. Investing in the future • Putting money on the table • Pay now for a percentage reduction to be implemented in 3 years time (~$2-3 billion now) • Tear up entitlements equivalent to interception and restore reliability and integrity • Transfer the remaining entitlements to local and a central environmental trusts • Pay well above market price, say, 150% • Pay all exit fees to your water supply company • Waive all Govt. water trading charges for next 3 years • No capital gains tax if money rolled over

  19. Subscribe to our Droplets at www.myoung.net.au Contact: Prof Mike Young Water Economics and Management Email: Mike.Young@adelaide.edu.au Phone: +61-8-8303.5279Mobile: +61-408-488.538 www.myoung.net.au

  20. Mean supply 10,000 Evap 2,000 Flow to sea 2,000 4,000 Deliverable water 6,000 Environment Use 1,500 Consumptive Use 4,500 0 Adverse climate change In Mediterranean climates, a 20% decline in mean rainfall results in around a 60% decline in mean supply • Mean supply 4,000 • Evap 2,000 • Flow to sea 200 2,200 • Deliverable water 1,800 • Environment Use 1,500 • Consumptive Use 300 • 0 20% less rain water means almost no allocationunless evaporation and environment is resized

  21. Salinity and Flow

More Related