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Finding CLEWs

Finding CLEWs. Modelling the interrelated effects of Climate, Land use, Energy, and Water (CLEW) A joint approach with FAO, IAEA, IIASA, KTH, SEI-US, and UN-DESA. Aim of the CLEW approach. Develop clear indicators and quantify physical interrelations between CLEW resources

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Finding CLEWs

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  1. Finding CLEWs Modelling the interrelated effects of Climate, Land use, Energy, and Water (CLEW) A joint approach with FAO, IAEA, IIASA, KTH, SEI-US, and UN-DESA

  2. Aim of the CLEW approach • Develop clear indicators and quantify physical interrelations between CLEW resources • Develop tools to assist decision makers to verify the effects on other CLEW resources • Test the tools and calibrate them to different environments / situations / setups through data collection and Case Studies E C C C,L,E,W W Decision E L L W CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  3. Mauritius – pioneer for testing of CLEW modelling tool • Small island with clear boundaries • Producer and exporter of sugar (occupying 80 % cultivated land area) • Dependent on fuel imports for its energy requirement • Highly vulnerable to climate change • Data availability • Government vision for making Mauritius a sustainable island focussing on reducing dependence of fossil fuel and reducing GHG emission … CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  4. Aim of the case study • The CLEW modelling framework was used to assess the energy, water and land-use system in the context of different scenarios in Mauritius: • Reduce gasoline imports by producing ethanol, displacing sugar exports • 2. Considering different energy system alternatives and land use options (e.g. different crops) under uncertain future dryer climatic conditions (lower rainfall ) CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  5. Methodology • Development and calibration of water, energy and land use model using 10 years data (1996- 2005) • WEAP - water • LEAP - energy • AEZ - land production planning • Selective integration of the different models using common assumptions and “soft” linkages to calculate: • What are the changes in total costs? • What are the influences to the local water balance? • How changes the local energy balance? • What are local and externally induced GHG emissions? CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  6. Modeling Tools Used CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  7. Definition of all Catchement areas (60) • Real Climatic Data (1996 – 2005):Rainfall, min & max temperature, humidity .... • All main rivers & reservoirs plus stream flow data and reservoirs levels • Modelling of existing canals / distribution systems • Using GIS: land cover classes to calculate evapotranspiration • Water Demand data (urban and agricultural) according to national statistics and population density Result: Water availabilty for each point in the system CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  8. Results – Scenario B (40% rainfall reduction): Reservoir levels CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  9. Input Data • Supply: • All existingandplanned power plants (capacitiesand plant factors) • Hydropower Plantsandmonthlyproduction • Potential renewableenergytargets • Energyproductionfrombagasse • OilandCoalimports • In the Scenarios: 1st & 2nd generationfrombiomass plus bioethanolproduction • Demand: • from national statisticsandofficialprojections, assumptionsforpumpingwateranddesalination • Demand forethanolproductionfromsugarcane (1st and 2nd gen.) • Energyneedsforfertilzerproduction CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  10. CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  11. AEZ - The Land-Use Model ... • Input: • Climatic Data • Detailed soil map and data from soil profils • Slopes and marginal land • GIS data for landcover • Irrigated areas • Output: • Grid map of Mauritius show optimal crops, potential water use, and potential yield • Crop calendar CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  12. Maps used for AEZ ...

  13. Modeling Tools Used CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  14. Diagram of CLEW interconnections …

  15. Case Study Mauritius – Model Interconnections: CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  16. OIL+COAL external ”lost” SUGAR EXPORT [1000 US$ REAL 2005] [ton CO2eq] [1000 GJ] OIL ELECTR. GENERATION Baseline COAL Reduced GASOLINE IMPORTS TRANS-PORT emissions GASOLINE GASOLINE external

  17. Case Study Mauritius – Results: Questions: • How changes the local energy balance in case local biofuel production under different price and technology scenarios? • What are local and externally induced GHG emissions (taking into account fossil fuel savings and land use changes)? • What are the changes in total costs? • What are the influences to the local water balance? Some Findings: • Increasing water intensity in the agriculture will result in substantially increased energy demand (pumping). • Current trends of decreased rainfall may make other crops interesting for the island. • Induced external land use changes somewhere else have the largest effect on the overall GHG balance (substitution of sugar cane) CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  18. Futur Work and Potential Applications • Further development of the CLEW approach: Developing a simple „user interface“ and defining data requirements and capabilities for the tool. (Further Case Studies, with a potentially excellent applicability in SIDS) • Further development of OSeMOSYS: Designing a tool which is open source, transparent and applicable for developing countries • Include CLEW (or multi resource assessment) options into OSeMOSYS • Improve Modelling of intermittencies and fluctuating RE energy sources (for RE based island systems) CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  19. The CLEW and its Partners • Local GHG emissions (incl. fossil fuels, farming, fertilizer use or use of biofuels) • Foreign induced GHG emissions (especially: induced land-use changes) • Crop yields and related energy balance • Carbon content and storage in plants and soil • Input of water, fertilizer, energy during growth period and harvesting Climate LandUse Energy Water • Water for irrigation • Water for hydropower • Water for cooling powerplants • Water used for biofuel production • Water use during resource extraction • Local Energy use (e.g. energy for farming, production of local biofuels or hydropower) • Foreign induced energy use (imports and exports, fossil fuel extraction) CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  20. Thank You Mark Howells (mark.howells@energy.kth.se) Sebastian Hermann (sebastian.hermann@energy.kth.se) Manuel Welsch (manuel.welsch@energy.kth.se) Royal Institute of Technology – Stockholm – Sweden www.kth.se CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

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