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Biography for William Swan

Biography for William Swan.

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Biography for William Swan

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  1. Biography for William Swan Chief Economist, Seabury-Airline Planning Group. AGIFORS Senior Fellow. ATRG Senior Fellow. Retired Chief Economist for Boeing Commercial Aircraft 1996-2005 Previous to Boeing, worked at American Airlines in Operations Research and Strategic Planning and United Airlines in Research and Development. Areas of work included Yield Management, Fleet Planning, Aircraft Routing, and Crew Scheduling. Also worked for Hull Trading, a major market maker in stock index options, and on the staff at MIT’s Flight Transportation Lab. Education: Master’s, Engineer’s Degree, and Ph. D. at MIT. Bachelor of Science in Aeronautical Engineering at Princeton. Likes dogs and dark beer. (bill.swan@cyberswans.com) • Scott Adams

  2. RJs – Smaller than You Think A Review of the Evidence: RJs are eroding 100-seat market Small plane market growing slowly

  3. RJ Share is Exaggerated • Share of added airplanes* = 38% • Share of scheduled departures = 16% • Share of scheduled airplanes = 14% • Share of seat departures = 7% • Share of seats = 5% • Share of ASK = 3% *airplane count from scheduled departures and miles. Added 2003 to 2004.

  4. Macro View: Below 120-seats is Small

  5. ASKs Below 120 seats Growing Slowly(1.3% since 1991)

  6. New RJs Retiring Props, Old RJs, & 100-seats

  7. 6-8% of ASKs not Boeing or Airbus

  8. Asia Not Featuring RJs: Too Poor & Too Far

  9. Europe Favoring 100-seat Jets

  10. N. America is King of the New RJ

  11. Other Regionals are Similar to Asia

  12. New RJs Since 1995 • Market for <120-seats growing at 1.3%/year • Compared to 4.6% for total ASKs • New RJs have grown to 28% of these ASKs • Old RJs are still 9%, from 8% in 1995 • Props are still 13%, from 18% in 1995 • Jet-100s (90-120 seats) are still 51% • Down from 73% in 1995 • Most of this is in North America • Where Union Pilot Contracts favor RJs • Still room to grow within this market

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