Higher Population

1. Higher Population

2. Topic two: Population Census Counting the People

3. Counting the people • Nearly all countries produce demographic data • Counting people is expensive and time consuming • Information is vital for planning resources, education, employment, housing and other Government services

4. Methods of counting • Vital registration • Census • Sample Survey (10% of the population)

5. Civil Registration

6. Death certificate

7. Benefits and problems of vital registration • Regularly updated • Population monitored at local level • No account for migration

8. Census • A ten yearly count of all the people in a country • The most accurate method of population count • Records a variety of social, health and economic information

9. Problems with Census • Very expensive and time consuming • Low literacy in Developing Countries means extra enumerators • Difficult terrain and poor communications

10. Problems with census • Different Languages • Political instability • Migration • War • Distrust of what figures are used for.

11. Examples • Nomads in the Sahara cross borders • India’s 1 billion people speak 15 languages. India required 1.7 million enumerators in 1991 • Illegal immigrants, I.e Mexicans in USA • Ethnic tensions I.e Nigeria had rivalry between North and South • China has one child policy- females not registered • Rural – urban migration I.e. 300 families migrate into Mumbai (Bombay) daily

12. Topic three: Population Change BBC Video Global population growth • At present, the world's population is growing fast - though this has not always been the case. • Until the 1800s the world's population grew steadily but slowly for thousands of years. • In 1820 the world's population reached one billion. • 150 years later, in the early 1970s, the world's population reached three billion. • In 1999, less than 30 years later, the population doubled to six billion. • The global rate of population growth is now very fast (rising by about one billion every 15 years).

14. The population of any place changes over time. There are three main causes of population change: Births - usually measured using the birth rate (number of live births per 1000 of the population) Deaths - usually measured using the death rate (number of deaths per 1000 of the population) Migration - the movement of people in and out of an area

15. Rate of change • Births and deaths are natural causes of population change. The difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a country or place is called the natural increase, and you calculate the natural increase by subtracting the death rate per 1000 population from the birth rate per 1000 population:natural increase = birth rate - death rate. • The rate of natural increase or growth rate of a population is given as a percentage, calculated by dividing the natural increase by 10. If for example the birth rate / 1000 pop = 14, and the death rate / 1000 pop = 8, thengrowth rate = 14 - 8 = 6 / 1000, or 0.6%.

16. EMDCs • Have a look at the birth and death rates for Bulgaria. The birth rate is 9/1000 and death rate is 14/1000. The birth rate is less than the death rate which gives Bulgaria a declining population. • Now look at the figures for South Africa. The birth rate is 25/1000 and death rate is 15/1000. South Africa has an increasing population with a population-growth rate of 1. ELDCs

17. Intro Video Topic four: Demographic Transition Model Web link

18. The demographic transition model shows population change over time. The model studies how birth rate and death rate affect the total population of a country. It is divided into four stages: • Stage one - the total population is low but it is balanced due to high birth rates and high death rates. • Stage two - the total population is starting to rise as death rates start to fall, but birth rates remain quite high. • Stage three - the total population is still rising rapidly, but the gap between birth and death rates narrows. Now the natural increase is high. • Stage four - the total population is high, but it is balanced due to a low birth rate and a low death rate.

19. Topic five: Implications of Population change As we have seen already different parts of the world have wide variations in population. Throughout history the population of states has varied for many different reasons. Population change is highly dynamic, and depends on changes in fertility, mortality and migration.

20. Components of Population Change Fertility and mortality

21. Components of Population Change + + Immigrants Births Total population Deaths Emigrants

22. Changes • Natural Change : Natural increase when births exceed deaths, Natural Decrease when deaths exceed births • Migration : Movement of people

23. Fertility and mortality • Birth rate = No of births per thousand people • Death rate = No of deaths per thousand people • These figures allow comparison between countries

24. Fertility Rates • Children are used as workers • Children can look after old relatives • High child mortality rate • Social and religious reasons

25. How can governments influence population change? • Various governments have attempted to influence population change by adopting pro-natalist policies or anti-natalist policies

26. Pro-Natalist (AIM: To increase in BR) Promoted before World War Two by states such as Italy, France and Germany, partly to compensate for the loss of many solders and civilians during World War one and also for economic and military reasons. • Nazi Germany is an extreme example • of a pro-natalist policy. • The Nazi regime suppressed information • regarding contraception. • Taxed unmarried couples. • Prosecuted people for having abortions

27. Anti-Natalist Policy (AIM: to reduce the BR) • China launched its one child policy in 1979. • Women where forced to have abortions • Massive contraception campaigns where waged • Early marriages where discouraged • Food and clothing rations were withheld. “Little Emperors” Many baby girls are abandoned in orphanages

28. Topic six: Population Pyramids Be able to describe and explain the population of a country

29. POPULATION STRUCTURE The population pyramid displays the age and sex structure of a country or given area FEMALES To the right MALES To the left OLD DEPENDANTS ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE YOUNG DEPENDANTS Population in Five Year Age bands Usually, but not always, In % to make for easier comparisons between countries

30. What Population Pyramids Show Us KEY Economically More Developed Country Economically Less Developed Country slope of pyramid indicate the death rate width of the base is related to birth rate/fertility rate proportions of men and women can suggest male or female migrations height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end of the wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority) "kinks" indicate dramatic reductions in birth rate or increases in death rate in the past area of graph indicates total population - compare areas of differentpopulation age groups or different sex on one graph The overall shape of the population pyramid can indicate whether it is an Economically More Developed Country or Economically Less Developed Country

31. Population Pyramids related to the Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS Both birth rates and Death rates are High, so population growth rates are slow but population Is usually restored Due to high birth Rate. Short life Expectancy EXAMPLES Population continues to grow but at slower rate. Low C Death Rate. Dramatically declining Crude Birth Rate. EXAMPLES Low Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate Higher dependancy ratio and longer life expectancy Crude Death Rate does Rise slightly because of The ageing population EXAMPLES Population starts to grow at an exponential rate due to fall in Crude Death Rate. More living In middle age. Life expectancy rises Infant mortality rate falls. EXAMPLES Scotland today. Japan, USA Scotland before 1760 New Guinea Remote parts of Amazonia Scotland 1870 -1950 Algeria, Tunisia Morocco Scotland 1760 - 1830 Republic of Congo There is some merit in including or considering a Stage 5 today with a declining population

32. Developing Country World Population pyramids

33. Developed Population Structure • Narrow base, low birth rate, birth control • Constant Width, low infant mortality • Doesn’t narrow until age 70, high life expectancy

34. Developing Population Structure • Wide base, high birth rate • Narrows quickly, high infant mortality • Narrow above 50, low life expectancy

35. Migration The movement of people

36. Push Pull War Soil Erosion Education and healthcare Famine Bright lights Drought, floods or other natural disasters Jobs Climate New Opportunity Unemployment

37. Reasons for migrations • Political • Social • Economic • Environmental

38. Voluntary or Forced • A voluntary migration involves people wanting to go I.e. migrants leaving U.K for Australia or Turks going to work in Germany • These are usually due to economic and social factors

39. GNP £134 per capita 5% employed in manufacturing 230 per 1000 infant mortality Natural increase 27% GNP £891 per capita 35% employed in manufacturing 50 per 1000 infant mortality Natural increase 6% Comparison of standard of living in Turkey and Germany

40. Voluntary Migration, Turks to Germany, Push Factors • Difficult hot climate • Unemployment largely due to mechanisation • Low wages • Natural Disasters (Earthquakes) • Poverty, most farming on steep Slopes with poor soil Mainly males of working age migrated

41. Voluntary Migration, Turks to Germany, Pull Factors • High Wages • Education • Political Stability • Job Prospects

42. Effects on Germany • Positive • Gastarbeiters did menial jobs • Solved employment shortages • Enriched culture • Negative • Discrimination • Language difficulties • Housing shortages • Difficult to repatriate

43. Effects on Turkey • Positive • Relieved unemployment • Foreign Currency • New Skills • Less crowding • Negative • Brain Drain • Lack of male workers • Social Problems • Damaged Turkish Economy

44. Forced Migrations • People are forced to leave an area often on fear of death • Slavery • War in Kosovo, Rwanda and Bosnia I.e. Ethnic Cleansing. Jews in Nazi Germany • Famine in Ethiopia • Political Refugees, People having to flee a country because of political beliefs : Zimbabwe

45. Forced Migration • Major forced migrations in the 1980s and 1990s are Rwanda, Afghanistan, Bosnia, Kosovo and Chechnya. And more recenlty from Dafur in Sudan and Iraq and Afghanistan • UNHCR estimated 21 million in 2007 • A refugee is defined as “someone who has a well founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion or political belief”

46. Refugees • Mixed migration I.e. not age or sex selective • Refugees experience loss of relatives and property and experience hostility in receiving country

47. Consequences of migration • Refugees can add to local problems such as food shortage. They can bring disease • Resentment from locals • Environmental problems caused by influx of people

48. Answer these questions • What is the difference between voluntary and forced migration • For a named example of each describe the push and the pull factors • For each example describe the effects on the donor and the host country. • Explain why migrants often do not want to leave their new country.