Climate Change Policies: The Road to Copenhagen

1. Climate Change Policies: The Road to Copenhagen Dr Robert K. Dixon

2. Energy and Climate Policy: The Road to Copenhagen Dr. Robert K. Dixon September 2009

3. Trends in Total CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion: 2000-2005 Change in Real GDP Most Improved Germany (3.2%) United Kingdom (12.8%) Russia (33.0%) United States (12.6%) France (7.7%) Japan (5.2%) Canada (15.2%) European Union (10.8%) Korea (24.7%) Italy (5.5%) Brazil (9.8%) Mexico (9.5) South Africa (11.8%) Australia (17.5%) India (37.0%) Indonesia (20.7%) China (58.1%) 2.0% Least Improved Data Source: International Energy Agency, CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion, 2007. Produced using energy balances and the default methodologies and emissions factors from the revised IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.

4. Improvements in CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion Real GDP Intensity: 2000-2005CO₂ from Fuel Combustion / Real GDP (KG CO₂ per 2000 US$ at PPP) Change in Real GDP Most Improved Russia (33.0%) Korea (24.7%) India (37.0%) United Kingdom (12.8%) Canada (15.2%) United States (12.6%) European Union (10.8%) Germany (3.2%) Australia (17.5%) France (7.7%) Japan (5.2%) South Africa (11.8%) Brazil (9.8%) Mexico (9.5) Italy (5.5%) Indonesia (20.7%) China (58.1%) 9.2% Least Improved Data Source: International Energy Agency, CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion, 2007. Produced using energy balances and the default methodologies and emissions factors from the revised IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.

5. Important Transitions in Emitting Countries Over the Coming Decades: CO2 Emissions1 Reference Emission Projections to 2050 and Percent of Global Total OECD Countries Non-OECD Countries Non-OECD 67% 65% CO2 Emissions (Gt CO2/yr) 62% 58% 53% 49% 51% 47% 42% 38% 35% 33% OECD 1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO2. Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007.Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (Estimates based on MINICAM model results and other data).

6. Global CO2 Emissions1—2000, 2050 Reference Case, and 2050 at 50% of 2000 +97% (24.9 Gt/yr) 50.6 Gt/yr CO2 Emissions (Gt CO2/yr) -75% (-37.7 Gt/yr) 25.7 Gt/yr 12.8 Gt/yr 2000 Emissions 2050 Reference Emissions 2050 Global Emissions at 50% of 2000 Emissions 1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO2. Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007.Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (Estimates based on MINICAM model results and other data).

7. Energy CO2 Emission1 Reductions Needed to Achieve a 50% Global Emissions Reduction Below 2000 by 2050 Under Three Different Reduction Goals for OECD Countries Annual Gigaton CO2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference2 OECD Countries Non-OECD Countries 2050 Projection (50.6 Gt Total) OECD Emissions at “0” OECD Emissions at 20% 2000 Emissions OECD Emissions at 50% 2000 Emissions CO2, Emissions (Gt CO2/yr) -62% (-21.1 Gt) 2000 2000 -70% (-23.7 Gt) -61% (-10.2 Gt) -81% (-27.6 Gt) -84% (-14.1 Gt) -100% (-16.7 Gt) 2050 Non-OECD Emissions (10.2 Gt) 2050 Non-OECD Emissions (6.3 Gt) 2050 Non-OECD Emissions (12.8 Gt) 2050 OECD Emissions (267 Gt) 2050 OECD Emissions (6.5 Gt) 2050 OECD Reference Emissions (16.7 Gt) 2050 Non-OECD Reference Emissions (33.9 Gt) 2050 OECD Emissions (0 Gt) 1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO2. 2 Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., OECD or Non-OECD). Source: Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007.Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (Estimates based on MINICAM model results and other data).

8. Technology Actions that Provide One Gigaton CO2/ Year of Mitigation or Offsets Coal-Fired Power Plants Build 273 “zero-emission” 500 MW coal-fired power plants* Equivalent to about 7% of estimated current global installed coal-fired generating capacity of 2 million MW Geologic Sequestration Install 1,000 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sleipner project (1 MtCO2/year) Only 3 sequestration projects of this scale exist today Nuclear Build 136 new nuclear power plants of 1 GW each instead of new coal-fired power plants without CCS Equivalent to about one third of existing worldwide nuclear capacity of 375 GW Efficiency Deploy 273 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of 20 mpg - or at 17 km/L instead of 8.5 km/L Wind Energy Install about 270,000 1 MW wind turbines (operating at a capacity factor of 45%), roughly 3 times the global total installed wind capacity at the end of 2007. Solar Photovoltaics Install about 750 GW of solar PV, which is 125 times current global installed capacity of 6 GW* Biofuels Using existing production technologies, convert a barren area about 2 times the size of the UK (for a total of over 480,000 km2) CO2Storage in New Forest Convert a barren area greater than the size of Germany and France together (for a total of over 900,000 km2) How Big is One Gigaton of CO2? Gigatons = 109 Metric tons (1000 Kilograms) *Instead of coal-fired power plants Source: Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, September 2006.

9. Major Economies Process • Reinforce and accelerate discussions under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and contribute to a global agreement under the Convention by 2009. • Long-term Global Goal • National Plans • Technology Development/Cooperation • Financing • Forests, Adaptation

10. Thank You rdixon1@thegef.org

11. Upcoming Event: Irish Research Council for Science, Engineering and Technology Conference For more information see www.ircset.ie