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11 CTMs from 10 institutes in Europe and the US: University of L’Aquila, Italy

Radiative forcing in the 21 st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere JGR, Vol 108, No.D9, 4292, doi:10.1029/2002JD002624, 2003

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11 CTMs from 10 institutes in Europe and the US: University of L’Aquila, Italy

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  1. Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphereand the lower stratosphere JGR, Vol 108, No.D9, 4292, doi:10.1029/2002JD002624, 2003 M. Gauss, G. Myhre, G. Pitari, M.J. Prather, I.S.A. Isaksen,T.K. Berntsen, G.P. Brasseur, F.J. Dentener, R.G. Derwent,D. A. Hauglustaine, L.W. Horowitz, D.J. Jacob, M. Johnson, K.S. Law, L.J. Mickley, J.R. Müller, P.-H. Plantevin, J.A. Pyle, H.L. Rogers, D.S. Stevenson, J.K. Sundet, M. Van Weele,and O. Wild

  2. 11 CTMs from 10 institutes in Europe and the US: University of L’Aquila, Italy University of Oslo, Norway University of California, Irvine, USA IASB, Belgium KNMI / IMAU, The Netherlands Cambridge University, UK NCAR / CNRS, USA / France NCAR, USA Harvard University, USA UK Met Office, UK

  3. Focus on future ozone changes: Model simulations for the years 2000 and 2100 keeping the stratosphere “fixed” (OxComp / IPCC-TAR). Two additional model simulations (L’Aquila and Oslo models) including stratospheric ozone changes up to 20 km.

  4. Radiative forcing due to modeled ozone changes in the 21st century

  5. Radiative forcing due to modeled ozone changes in the 21st century (cont’d)

  6. Radiative forcing due to modeled ozone changes in the 21st century (global averages)

  7. Problems in the Gauss et al. 2003 publication • The two first authors were not involved in OxComp • Too long time lag between model simulations and writing of the paper (2-3 years) • Fixing the stratosphere was done in different ways • Vertical coordinate (z*) was not applied consistently in the models • Format specifications were not strictly followed

  8. Suggested new study should include both past (since preindustrial times) and future (year 2100 and 2050?) ozone changes. To be discussed: • Participating groups • Preindustrial emissions (largest uncertainties in previous RF estimates) and present emissions • Scenario(s) to be used for future simulations • Grid (T21 vs T42, 1km vertical?, sigma-p?) • Output species, file format (as in SCENIC?) • Include stratospheric change?

  9. Schedule for IPCC – AR4 Model simulations should be finished by November 2004 (!) Paper should be written by May 2005 and accepted by Dec 2005. Suggestions: “Core group” meeting in July or August 2004 for definitions of model simulations.

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