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PRIORITISATION OF OCCUPANT SURVIVAL FACTORS Ray Cherry Graham Greene Stèphane Deharvengt

CABIN SAFETY RESEARCH TECHNICAL GROUP. PRIORITISATION OF OCCUPANT SURVIVAL FACTORS Ray Cherry Graham Greene Stèphane Deharvengt. PRIORITISATION OF OCCUPANT SURVIVAL RESEARCH TOPICS. “ To ensure that the available resource is used to maximum benefit in improving occupant survivability”.

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PRIORITISATION OF OCCUPANT SURVIVAL FACTORS Ray Cherry Graham Greene Stèphane Deharvengt

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  1. CABIN SAFETY RESEARCH TECHNICAL GROUP PRIORITISATION OF OCCUPANT SURVIVAL FACTORSRay Cherry Graham Greene Stèphane Deharvengt

  2. PRIORITISATION OF OCCUPANT SURVIVAL RESEARCH TOPICS “To ensure that the available resource is used to maximum benefit in improving occupant survivability”

  3. PRIORITISATION METHODS Methods explored: • Perceived Benefit • Questionnaire to Specialists • Cost Benefit • Difficulty in assessing cost for all the Survivability Factors considered • ICPTF Methodology used but considered to be too inaccurate • Benefit

  4. LIMITED BENEFIT ANALYSIS • Considered limited number of Occupant Survival Research Topics • 37 • Using a Representative Set of past accidents selected from the CSRTG Accident Database • 115 • 34 Survivable Accidents • 81 Non-Survivable Accidents

  5. BENEFIT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY • Dividing the accident into “Scenarios”

  6. EXAMPLE ACCIDENT DIVIDED INTO SCENARIOS

  7. BENEFIT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY • Dividing the accident into “Scenarios” • Reassessing the the likely number of Fatalities and Serious Injuries in the accidents studied had the aircraft been configured to the latest requirements • Statistical modelling using Survivability Chains

  8. EXAMPLE OF A SURVIVABILITY CHAIN

  9. LIMITATIONS • Sample size of Accidents • Level of detail in Data • Accuracy appropriate to High, Medium and Low Categories

  10. LIMITATIONS • Sample size of Accidents • Level of detail in Data • Accuracy appropriate to High, Medium and Low Categories

  11. LIMITATIONS • Sample size of Accidents • Level of detail in Data • Accuracy appropriate to High, Medium and Low Categories

  12. COMPARISON OF ASSESSED BENEFIT

  13. HIGHER PRIORITY TOPICS

  14. A European application example :JAA SAFETY STRATEGY INITIATIVEJSSI Occupant Safety and Survivability ad-hoc working group

  15. JSSI Background • Purpose of JSSI: • Focused safety agenda based on structured data analysis • Employ resources in the most effective manner • Continuation of past efforts to improve safety Ideal fit for prioritisation activity undergone with CSRTG

  16. JSSI OSS Tasking • Identification of bodies working on OSS • Emergency operations • Routine operations issues • Hazards induced by payload • Recommendations

  17. Emergency operations Working method • Based on work performed by JAA OS PAG / international CSRTG • Use of CSRTG database • Analytical analysis to identify and prioritise survivability factors • Correlated with Fokker data and NTSB findings

  18. Emergency operations : results • CREW DRILLS (EMERGENCY & EVACUATION) (Effect of Flight or Cabin Crew procedures on occupant survival) • CREW TRAINING (Effect of Flight or Cabin Crew training on occupant survival, including training knowledge retention) • SEAT/FLOOR STRENGTH (Seat deformation, seat detachment , or floor disruption) • CABIN CREW / PASSENGER COMMUNICATION (The effectiveness of communication between the cabin crew and passengers during an emergency situation) • EFFECTIVENESS OF SEAT BELTS (Includes the protection of occupants from injury and the ability to release) +Review evacuation in a holistic approach to exit performance

  19. Summary of recommended topics • Crew Drills (Emergency & Evacuation) • Crew Training • Seat/Floor Strength • Cabin Crew / Passenger Communication • Effectiveness of Seat Belts • Review Evacuation in a Holistic Approach to Exit Performance • Dangerous goods • Reliable on-board mass and balance systems • Unruly / Aggressive Passengers • Smoking in Lavatories • Oven Fires Emergency operations Payload induced hazards Routine operations

  20. Recommendations and action plan Action plans under development • Crew Drills (Emergency & Evacuation) • Crew Training • Seat/Floor Strength • Cabin Crew / Passenger Communication • Effectiveness of Seat Belts • Identify the JAR requirements for these issues • Need to identify relevant documents (research reports, Investigation boards recommendations, etc... • Identify the appropriate experts • Review Evacuation in a Holistic Approach to Exit Performance • Proposed by JAA for JAA/FAA harmonisation activity

  21. On-going activity • The development of recommendations will benefit from the inputs (research, documents) discussed / disseminated within the CSRTG successful • The recommendations will also be discussed with the Authorities’ members represented in the CSRTG • A SUCCESSFUL CO-OPERATION PROCESS

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