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Comparison of the Structure s and Interdependences in the Slovak economy in 2000 and 2005

Comparison of the Structure s and Interdependences in the Slovak economy in 2000 and 2005. Mikuláš Luptáčik Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien Martin Lábaj Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences , Bratislava Input-Output-Workshop 2010 18th – 19th March Halle.

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Comparison of the Structure s and Interdependences in the Slovak economy in 2000 and 2005

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  1. Comparison of the Structures and Interdependences in the Slovak economy in 2000 and 2005 Mikuláš Luptáčik Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien Martin Lábaj Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava Input-Output-Workshop 2010 18th – 19th March Halle

  2. Structure of the presentation • Database and methodology • Basic structure of the Slovak economy • Multipliers – final demand effects on: • production, value added, import and employment • Structural decomposition – methodology • Structural decomposition • Employment • Import • Concluding remarks

  3. Database and Methodology • Input – output tables for Slovakia 2000, 2005current prices • Input – output tables for Slovakia 2005, constant prices (2000) • commodity x commodity technology (Eurostat methodology) • Version B (without import) – effects on domestic production • Data in SKK • Leontief I-O model • Structural Decomposition – Dietzenbacher, Los

  4. Changes in employment, import, value added and final consumption components in the Slovak economy between 2000 and 2005 (constant prices 2000, billions SKK)

  5. Export structure in Slovakia, 200010 most important commodities

  6. Export structure in Slovakia, 200510 most important commodities

  7. Contribution to export growth10 most important commodities

  8. Final demand effects on production Production multipliersin Slovakia, 2000 and 2005

  9. Final demand effects on value added, Value added multipliers in Slovakia, 2000 and 2005

  10. Final demand effects on importsImport multipliers in Slovakia, 2000 and 2005

  11. Changes in import requirementsinduced by final demand categories between 2000 and 2005

  12. Final demand effects on employmentEmployment multipliers in Slovakia, 2000 and 2005

  13. Changes in employment induced by final demand categories between 2000 and 2005

  14. Structural decomposition techniques Dietzenbacher, E. – Los, B.: Structural Decomposition Techniques: Sense and Sensitivity. Economic Systems Research, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1998. • Polar decompositions – taking average • All decompositions – average and standard deviation • Approximate decomposition with mid-point weights

  15. Structural decomposition with two determinants Two alternative ways (taking average) Excact solution – only in the case of two determinants

  16. Import and employment determinants m 57x5 matrix of induced import w 57x5 matrix of induced labor v 57x1 vector of import intensity (direct) u 57x1 vector of employment intensity L 57x57 Leontief inverse B 57x5 final demand structure f 5x1 vector of final demand (volume by categories and total) 57x57 complex import intensity 57x57 complex employment intensity F 57x5 final demand (volume by categories and total)

  17. Decomposition of changes in imports, in billions SKKDietzenbacher – mid-point weightsTwo determinants

  18. Decomposition of changes in imports, in billions SKKPolar decomposition – weight for import intensity from 2000Two determinants

  19. Decomposition of changes in employmentDietzenbacher – mid-point weightsTwo determinants

  20. Decomposition of changes in employmentPolar decomposition – weight for labor intensity from 2000Two determinants

  21. Decomposition of changes in imports, in billions SKK

  22. Decomposition of changes in importsCorresponding effects direction

  23. Share of final demand categories on import changes induced by particular component

  24. Contribution of particular components to changes in import induced by final demand categories

  25. Decomposition of changes in employment

  26. Decomposition of changes in employmentCorresponding effects direction

  27. Share of final demand categories on employment changes induced by particular component

  28. Contribution of particular components to changes in employment induced by final demand categories

  29. Concluding remarks • Export – fastest growing final demand category between 2000 and 2005 – 51,4 % • High import intensity of export unchangend – 0,52 • Export – important for employment – in 2000 – every third employee worked for export, in 2005 every second till third employee worked for export • Export – main source of empolyment growth between 2000 – 2005 • Importance of I-O tables in constat prices – allows us to analyse structural changes in economy and distinguish technology and price changes • Structural decomposition – importat tool for analysis of changes that are not visible at first glance • Evaluate contradicting effects – which of them is higher (stronger)

  30. Thank you for attention ...

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