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Providing Environmental Awareness for the Urban Ocean

Providing Environmental Awareness for the Urban Ocean. Alan F. Blumberg and Nickitas Georgas Davidson Laboratory August 22 -23, 2013. New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System. Integrated system of observing sensors and forecast models TO OBSERVE TO PREDICT TO COMMUNICATE

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Providing Environmental Awareness for the Urban Ocean

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  1. Providing Environmental Awareness for the Urban Ocean Alan F. Blumberg and Nickitas Georgas Davidson Laboratory August 22 -23, 2013

  2. New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System Integrated system of observing sensors and forecast models TO OBSERVE TO PREDICT TO COMMUNICATE Weather Currents Water Level Salinity Temperature Waves

  3. sECOM Hydrodynamic Model. NYHOPS App. 3D Circulation Model (ECOM/POM-derived): Boussinesq, Hydrostatic, Primitive Equation, Sigma Coordinate Model Mode Splitting: 10 external/internal steps, Δte=1sec. Smagorinksy lateral diffusion: HORCON=0.01, Prandtl Number=1000! Mellor-Yamada 2.5-Kl vertical closure: UMOL=10-6 m2/s. Bottom stress: CDmin=3x10-3, z0=10-3m, everywhere! *Modified by dynamic wave boundary layer (Grant-Madsen)! Surface Wind Stress: Large and Pond 1982. Barometric Pressure Gradient forcing: Switched off. 2D Surface Heat Fluxes: Ahsan and Blumberg, QUAL-2E-type. *Modified for 10m winds, generalized for UTC or local time coordinate. Robust, explicit, wetting and drying. Dynamically Coupled, Surface Wind Wave Model (GLERL-derived): Empirical Wave Momentum Model, JONSWAP spectrum. Wind-wave growth equation: γ=2.8%, CDs=0.7x10-3, ,z0w=σ/5. Incl. Bottom dissipation: fw=0.04 Incl. Depth-induced breaking: γB=0.8261 (Longuet-Higgins and Fenton, 1974). *Dynamic depth from circulation model. Incl. Offshore wave boundary condition. Adopted new dispersion eqn. for shallows. Included and validated Thin Dams (obstruction grids). Standardized, CF-protocol-compliant, NetCDF Outputs.

  4. NYHOPS Forecast Model _ it is all about realism! • 3D General Circulation Model dynamically coupled with Surface Wind-Wave model • Input forcing: • (O): Observed • (F): Forecasted • (H): Historic • Tides (O+F) NOS • Offshore Surge and Steric (O+F) NOS • Offshore Waves (O+F) • Surface Winds (O+F) NAM 12km • Heating and Cooling (O+F) • 239 Rivers and Streams (O+F) NERFC • 280 Major Dischargers (H) • River Ice (O+F) • Output: hindcasts+forecasts • 4x/day Results every 10min, • since 2006. • Total water level. • 3D Currents, Salinity, Temperature. • Significant wave height and wave period. Colored DOM and light absorption. + + Real time Observations External data and models Distributed Inflows and Effluents RI CT NY NJ DE Bathymetry: Over 1M soundings! Resolution: 4km -> 25m NYC 1967

  5. New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System A fully automated system of systems 0.5 hrs + 1.5 hrs + 2.0 hrs

  6. Validation • Every model has errors. Validation tells us that they are sufficiently small. • Adopted NOAA/NOS Model Evaluation Software (DB-MEE). • 2 years of recent in situ data: 2007-2009; 6+ years of real-time experience • Over 100 local stations (Georgas and Blumberg ‘10, DiLibertoet al ’11, etc.) • T/S vertical transect profiles from gliders (Georgas and Blumberg ‘08) • Satellite SST comparisons (Bhushan ‘09, Bhushan, Blumberg, Georgas ‘10) • HF-radar (Gopalakrishnan ‘11) and surface drifters (Blumberg et al, forthcoming).

  7. New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System NYHOPS supports: • Marine Search and Rescue (SAR) Missions………… • NY/NJ Harbor Commercial Pilots & Schedulers (Harbor Pilots Associations, Marine Transportation)…………… • Recreational Boaters (Regattas, Kayaks,…)……………….. • Coastal Flooding Responders (PD, FEMA, NWS)…… • Scientists/Engineers……

  8. Sandy surge Post-Sandy Nor’easter Totals for Sandy’s forecast period: 30,334 unique hits. • The NYHOPS/SSWS forecast water elevation (posted Saturday at 6am): • Along coast of NJ/NY and all of the Hudson River were within 5%, • the Battery, NY was low by 20%, • Long Island Sound was low by 10% 1

  9. Conclusions • NYHOPS established as an urban ocean forecast system – large following – extensive validation • MARACOOS assets a blessing – hf radar, drifters, gliders and “met forcing” • Need more robust assimilation – bring in mobile sensors, including truncated fisheries data • Need better offshore boundary forcing • Study wave and wave-driven set-up modeling • Faster code… offsite mirroring… online data store • Thank you NWS & NCEP & NOS– great operational products • Links needed to National Hurricane Center collection of hurricane models; • Include infrastructure ensembles/probabilistic forecasts;

  10. Thank You! ablumberg@stevens.edu

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