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Addressing double counting of mitigation for diverse contribution types

Addressing double counting of mitigation for diverse contribution types. Christina Hood (IEA). Presentation to SBSTA 8 June 2014. OECD/IEA papers on UNFCCC emissions accounting options. Concepts relevant pre- and post-2020. Outline. Double counting of mitigation

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Addressing double counting of mitigation for diverse contribution types

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  1. Addressing double counting of mitigation for diverse contribution types Christina Hood (IEA) Presentation to SBSTA 8 June 2014

  2. OECD/IEA papers on UNFCCC emissions accounting options Concepts relevant pre- and post-2020

  3. Outline • Double counting of mitigation • Mitigation transfers with single-year targets • Potential rules/criteria for “opt-in” to use of market or non-market mitigation transfers

  4. Outline • Double counting of mitigation • Mitigation transfers with single-year targets • Potential rules/criteria for “opt-in” to use of market or non-market mitigation transfers

  5. Which transfers matter for accounting? • Two conditions under which transfers of mitigation matter for UNFCCC accounting: • Could include credits (offsets), allowance units from domestic emissions trading systems, or non-market transfers “Used” by a Party as counting directly towards a contribution under UNFCCC + Originating outside the boundary of that contribution(geographic, scope or temporal)

  6. Double counting of mitigation • “Double issuance” = more than one unit issued for the same emissions reductions • “Double selling” or “double retirement” = same unit used more than once towards emissions obligations • “Double claiming” against pledges/targets = same mitigation claimed by two jurisdictions • “Double coverage” of transferred mitigation by GHG and non-GHG targets leading to double counting

  7. Double claiming example • Emissions inventory total = 90+110 = 200Mt • If Party A DOES NOT account for export but party B DOES account for import, then declared total = 90+100 = 190Mt -10Mt Party A Party B 10Mt Inventory granularity? --------90Mt Emissions 100Mt Emissions 100Mt --------110Mt

  8. What do Parties want to “prevent” ? • Prevent double counting in aggregate ex post reconciliation of total mitigation ? • track actual unit and non-market use Enables understanding of double claiming to prevent double counting of aggregate emissions reductions • Also prevent or limit double counting in ex ante estimates of expected mitigation ? • requires rules for market or non-market use • e.g. quantitative limits on use of transferred mitigation from jurisdictions that do not account for unit flows (i.e. limit double claiming) • e.g. GHG goals must account for unit flows (i.e. prevent double claiming)

  9. Double counting via “double coverage” of GHG/non-GHG targets Understandby tracking/reporting transfers

  10. Outline • Double counting of mitigation • Mitigation transfers with single-year targets • Potential rules/criteria for “opt-in” to use of market or non-market mitigation transfers

  11. Annual unit purchases Actual reported inventory emissions Multiple-year target 2030 inventory 100Mt 90Mt Multi-year emissions target 80Mt 2030 target 2020 2025 2030 • Multi-year target avoids risk that emissions in single target year are unrepresentative of general trend • Facilitates use of market mechanisms

  12. Actual reported inventory emissions Single-year target 2030 inventory 100Mt 90Mt 80Mt 2030 target 2020 2025 2030 • Ex ante uncertainty over total emissions due to unknown path to target

  13. 2030 inventory Actual reported inventory emissions Single-year target 100Mt 90Mt 80Mt 2030 target 2020 2025 2030 • Ex ante uncertainty over total emissions due to unknown path to target • Ex ante uncertainty amplified by use of units in target year • Gets complex when we think about “vintages” of units

  14. Options for use of mitigation transfers with single year targets

  15. Outline • Double counting of mitigation • Mitigation transfers with single-year targets • Potential rules/criteria for “opt-in” to use of market or non-market mitigation transfers

  16. Packages of rules for Parties “opting in” to use of market or non-market transfers 1.Transparency Approach Ex-ante clarity on expected total abatement and national goals • Ex post reporting of flows • Provide ex ante estimate of expected flows • Quantitative limit on units issued by Parties with GHG goals that do not account for flows. • Units in single-year targets must be reflective of continuous action 2. Enhanced clarity • Ex post reporting of flows* • Provide ex ante estimate of expected flows • Ex post reporting of flows • Provide ex ante estimate of expected flows • GHG based contributions must account for flows, must be multi-year. 3. Avoidance of double claiming *flows = issuance, retirement, transfers, banking [PLUS: governance of systems, registry and tracking arrangements]

  17. Thank you for your attention GHG or not GHG: Accounting for diverse mitigation contributions in the post-2020 climate framework Christina Hood (christina.hood@iea.org) Gregory Briner(gregory.briner@oecd.org) Marcelo Rocha www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg.htm

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