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Proposed Change to Methodology regarding Regulation Service

This document compares the current methodology of dividing Regulation Up and Down requirements into hourly blocks with the proposed methodology of calculating the 98.8th percentile without hourly blocks. The proposed changes aim to enhance efficiency and reliability by setting an exhaustion rate target of 1.2%. The historical data analysis supports the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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Proposed Change to Methodology regarding Regulation Service

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  1. Proposed Change to Methodology regarding Regulation Service ROS 5/10/2007

  2. Current Methodology • Divides the Regulation Up and Down requirements into blocks of Hours • Calculates the average and standard deviation of deployed Regulation Up and Down by hourin the previous month and same month of the previous year. • Targets an exhaustion rate of 1.2% or 35 settlement intervals/month

  3. Proposed Methodology • Removes the requirement to Block Hours for procurement of Regulation Up and Down • Calculates the 98.8 percentile of deployed Regulation Up and Down in the previous month and same month of the previous year by hour • Targets an exhaustion rate of 1.2% or 35 intervals/month • Adds a back-cast requirement that allows ERCOT to adjust when the exhaustion rate exceeds 1.2%.

  4. Historical Regulation Procurement

  5. SUMMARY • A 98.8th percentile method using the same historical data with no grouping among hours appears to produce results that are more efficient and closer to the reliability objectives • Utilizing the back-cast in a feedback loop will allow ERCOT to adjust if the exhaustion rate exceeds 1.2%.

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