Katja Chkalova (CBS) 16 May 2013

1. Labour market performance of surviving relatives in the Netherlands: applying sequence analysis on SSD data Katja Chkalova (CBS) 16 May 2013

2. Summary 1. Introduction 2. Data & analysis methods 3. Results

3. Introduction • Changes in social security policy • National Survivors Benefits Act (Anw) and recent research • Research questions • What routes and trajectories do survivors of bereavement adopt on the labour market after the event (typology)? • What routes and trajectories lead to withdrawal from the labour market and Anw - dependence • Discriminating effects

4. Sequence analysis in a nutshellSequence properties and general statistics • Most analysis methods focus on only one state or transition/event • The average labour market career often contains multitudes of states and transitions (E/UB/U) • Sequence analysis offers the possibility to examine labour market careers as a whole of states, transitions and events • # distinct states, events and transitions • Length / duration of distinct states (mean / total duration / duration of separate spells) • Most common patterns / searching for particular patterns • Entropy, turbulence, complexity • Timing of events

5. Sequence analysis in a nutshellPairs of sequences: distances, similarities and dissimilarities • Edit-distances • Hamming distance (substitution costs) • Optimal Matching (indel costs) Quantified Common Attribute • Longest Common Prefix • Longest Common Suffix • Longest Common Sub-sequence • # of Distinct Sub-sequences • # Matching Sub-sequences

6. ResultsOperationalising and alphabet • Research population: persons who have lost their partner in 2002-2003 • Sequences of the same length of 61 months: 12 months before the event (death of the partner), the month of the event and 48 months after the event

7. ResultsOperationalising and alphabet • EmphasisingAnw- benefits as a separate state • Three integrated tracks of sequences • Job • Benefits (AO/WW/WWB) • Anw benefits • 65 years and older as a separate category for labour market state

8. ResultsOperationalising and alphabet Starting position: • working • inactive • receiving benefits • working with benefits • Other

9. ResultsSteps in the analysis • Construct sequence strings • Distinguish between the starting positions • Determine general statistics of sequence strings • Calculate distances between sequence strings separately for every starting position • Find clusters of distances within every group with a distinct starting position • Do a regression analysis with typology as dependent variable

10. ResultsGeneral statistics Visualisation of the sequence data: The state distribution plot of the labour market states of the survivors during 61 months

11. ResultsGeneral statistics Inactive Benefits Working Working with benefits

12. ResultsGeneral statistics # transitions per period

13. ResultsTypology Starting position: working Longest common subsequence

14. ResultsTypology Starting position: working Work > work with Anw Work > Anw

15. ResultsImportant conclusions • There is an evident impact of the event on the labour market performance of the surviving relatives • Gender differences in types of trajectories adopted • Significant differences in behaviour between survivors in different life course phases • The starting position is of great importance for outcomes (typology) • Anw is being used by different groups of survivors: • - Long-term Anw assistance with little chance of reconnecting with the • labour market • - Complementary Anw-assistance

16. Labour market performance of surviving relatives in the Netherlands: applying sequence analysis on SSD data Questions? Katja Chkalova (CBS) 16 May 2013