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1. What is New Hampshire?Vesta Roy Excellence in Public Service SeriesJanuary 18, 2007Dennis DelayDeputy Director, NHCPPS “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

2. All of our reportsare available on the web:www.nhpolicy.org New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Board of Directors Martin L. Gross, Chair John B. Andrews John D. Crosier Gary Matteson Todd Selig Donna Sytek Georgie A. Thomas James Tibbetts Brian Walsh Kimon S. Zachos Staff Steve Norton Dennis Delay Ryan Tappin Doug Hall “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

3. Topics for Presentation • New Hampshire’s People • New Hampshire’s Environment • New Hampshire’s Economy • State Budget • Public Education • Public and Private Health Care Spending • Corrections and Drug Abuse • Local and County Governance 1

4. Starting in the 1960’s, New Hampshire Population Grew Faster Than the Rest of New England Population Growth Index – New England and US Source: Chart from Fed Bank of Boston

5. New Hampshire Growth Highest in I-93 Corridor Source: NH Office of State Planning Estimates

6. Three NH Counties Had More Deaths Than Births. Source: US Census Bureau

7. Most of NH’s Migrants Come From Massachusetts

8. The New Hampshire population age makeup is shifting, along with the region and the rest of the US. Source: US Census Bureau

9. New Hampshire is estimated to have a relatively high median age of the population, exceeding the US median age by 3.1 years Only Maine and Vermont, among the New England States, have higher population median ages All New England states have higher population median ages than the United States

10. The New Hampshire workforce is getting older, but population growth will continue with high “quality of life” and job opportunities Source: US Census Bureau and New Hampshire Office of Energy and Planning

11. Religious and secular giving, by U.S. Census Region, 2002 (Center on Philanthropy Panel Study Data) 1000 900 New England 800 700 Pacific 600 Secular Giving: Average/household (inc. non-donors) SE:Atlantic Mountain:SW 500 Mid-Atlantic Plains states 400 Oil States Great Lakes 300 SE:Gulf States 200 100 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Religious giving: average/household (inc. non-donors) New England donors give more to secular causes but less to religious causes

12. Topics for Presentation • New Hampshire’s People • New Hampshire’s Environment • New Hampshire’s Economy • State Budget • Public Education • Public and Private Health Care Spending • Corrections and Drug Abuse • Local and County Governance 1

13. Global Warming? : Average ‘ice out’ day trend for 27 lakes in the Northeast, 1926-2000

14. Winter Recreation, Global Warming and New Hampshire • Warm slushy winters mean 6,000 fewer jobs, a loss of 4 percent of North Country winter employment. • 33 percent fewer skiers visit NH. • Snowmobile registration license fees drop by almost 30 percent. • Total loss in ski ticket, fishing license and snowmobile registrations is $13 million. Source: www.carboncoalition.org

15. Topics for Presentation • New Hampshire’s People • New Hampshire’s Environment • New Hampshire’s Economy • State Budget • Public Education • Public and Private Health Care Spending • Corrections and Drug Abuse • Local and County Governance 1

16. NH Income per person grew faster than US in 1970-80’s. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

17. ..but wealth is not evenly distributed among counties. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

18. New Hampshire Growing Faster than US or Region Since 2001 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

19. Real Estate Eclipses Manufacturing in Contribution to GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

20. New Hampshire affordability better than the 1980’s. Sources: Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

21. Northern New England Scores Well

22. Topics for Presentation • New Hampshire’s People • New Hampshire’s Environment • New Hampshire’s Economy • State Budget • Public Education • Public and Private Health Care Spending • Corrections and Drug Abuse • Local and County Governance 1

23. 4

24. Comparison of Aggregate Growth (1997-2007) 7

25. Change in Inflation Adjusted Per Capita Appropriation 1997-2007 10

26. Feast and Famine: 1997-2007 Change in General Fund Appropriations (in $2007 per capita) 11

27. Summary: NH General Fund Spending 1997-2007 • Budget up 55.4% in 10 years • Slightly more than inflation and population growth … and less than economy. • Programmatically: • In real terms: “Feast AND Famine” • 5 entitlement functions driving expenditure growth • Aside from 5 growth areas, net reduction in real spending for remainder of budget. 26

28. General Fund Revenue by Source FY 2005 29

29. General Fund Revenue ($ million) New Versus Old Revenues Compound annual rate of increase: 3.4% 33

30. $881 34

31. 35

32. 36

33. Does New Hampshire Have a Structural Deficit? “New Hampshire can be characterized as having a long-term structural deficit in the sense that for a given scope of programs and revenue system, expenditures grow automatically faster than revenues.” KPMG Peat Marwick February 13, 1992 44

34. So What? • Recognize need to scale back on state activities OR recognize the necessity to raise tax rates or add new taxes to maintain a constant level of services. • Results in more detailed review of all state programs every biennium because there is always a looming shortfall. • Reduces possibility of surpluses for investment in desirable one-time projects. • Makes long-term strategic planning more difficult. 45

35. Budget Conclusions? • Absent significant policy changes, historic growth in primary drivers of state budget will continue. • Over the past 15 years, ‘natural’ revenue growth has been outpaced by appropriations  constant changes to tax structure including increased rates and new taxes. • Absent significant policy changes which slow growth in primary drivers, appropriations likely to outstrip revenue growth  revenue structure changes or ‘tinkering.’ • Both revenue and expenditure side driven by economic changes …. 46

36. Topics for Presentation • New Hampshire’s People • New Hampshire’s Environment • New Hampshire’s Economy • State Budget • Public Education • Public and Private Health Care Spending • Corrections and Drug Abuse • Local and County Governance 1

38. The “Adequacy” Reform Began in 1998 • Legislature passed HB999 - new state “adequacy” aid in response to NH Supreme Court ruling in Claremont II • Old “Foundation Aid” of $66 million was repealed • Raised/introduced taxes for education • Re-introduced statewide property tax for schools in tax year 1999 at $6.60 rate • Distributed $407 million for school year 1999/2000 • Legislature has regularly amended and changed the amount of aid and the distribution formula. • Reform sought to comply with ‘Claremont II’ thru: • greater pupil equity • greater taxpayer equity

39. Change in Pupil Equity How have the differences in spending per pupil among the school districts that were cited by the Supreme Court changed since the reform?

44. Change in Taxpayer Equity How have the differences in tax rates among the towns that were cited by the Supreme Court changed since the reform?

49. Change in Taxpayer Equity The initial increase in taxpayer equity in 1999 has nearly all eroded away. Change in Pupil Equity No change in pupil equity ever occurred.

50. New Hampshire's high school dropout rates have begun to decline Source: New England Public Policy Center