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Global Oil & Gas Study: Annual Production vs Discoveries since 1985

This presentation analyzes the trend of annual oil and gas production versus yearly discoveries since 1985. It questions the narrative of impending doom and gloom and explores the optimistic forecasts by agencies, analysts, and IOC's. The study also examines URR estimates and scenarios for the future of oil supplies.

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Global Oil & Gas Study: Annual Production vs Discoveries since 1985

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  1. TrendLines Researchpresentation to the2007 USA (NPC)Nat'l Petroleum Council'sGlobal Oil & Gas Study Aug 24, 2007 Freddy Hutter Updates at www.TrendLines.ca/npc.htm (867) 660-5533 fax/tel graphs@trendlines.ca Marsh Lake, The Yukon ~ Canada

  2. 2007 version of ASPO-IE Discovery graph: Chart #1 With this and its predecessor versions, ASPO-Ireland has unwittingly assisted in creating a culture ofurgencyand/ordespairin a small but growing portion of the populace. Has Annual Production outpaced Yearly Discoveries since 1985? Are Discoveries truly only one-third of Annual Production? And it’s getting worse? This hallmark forecast graphic of pending doom & gloom amid the rhetoric of economic collapse are not helpful to meaningful discussions. How does one square this dismal familiar picture with the reality of growing annual production & optimistic forecasts by Agencies/Analysts/IOC’s? Forecasts that say this advancing trend shall continue for a couple of decades. This query goes to the very heart of the Oil supplies segment of the NPC Study … when it states that "the world is not running out of energy reserves".

  3. Chart #2 Below is a TrendLinesadaptation of the ASPO-IE Discovery Graph updated with Colin Campbell’s July 2007 2600-Gb URR data. It attempts to replace the current illusion of pending collapse by illustrating the pre-backdating (behind-the-scenes) reality of URR growth. Each year ASPO-IE et al backdate most of the new Discoveries & Reserve Growth (as shown in yellow, where Black bars = 1995). The bright yellow/black hashes illustrate the “before” (backdating) picture! Red = future Conv Discoveries & RG … Lime = Non-Conv D & RG

  4. Chart #3 In 2006,Trendlines premièred its URR Estimates presentation: In June, we (conveniently for NPC) explored its bottom two and mostly imperceptible graph lines: "Annual Growth & Annual Consumption" This is timely ‘cuz that data relates to the previous Annual Discovery/Reserve Growth controversy. For supply chain, planning & marketplace stability purposes, the petroleum industry has long been comfortable with a 40-yr Reserve/Production ratio measure of future inventory. This ratio has been maintained for two decades. Below, tracking by BP, OGJ & the Trendlines 19-Estimate AVG illustrate that the market is supplied well in advance when “called”. There is NO apparent need to commence the 50-yr or 60-yr R/P ratio that ASPO infers is needed.

  5. Chart #4 Most everyone agrees that URR is not a problem and most would agree with that a Hubbert type bell curve is in play wrt Supply. URR becomes an issue for those that believe URR is less than 3-Tb. With 1.1-Tb consumed, a 3-Tb global URR would mean that only 400-Gb is available ‘til the midpoint crossover … less than 12 years ‘til maximum supply (Peak Rate). TrendLines most recent 19-Estimates AVG is 3392-Gb and presently growing at a 190-Gb/yr rate (using 3yr avg). The NPC Study made converts of some in the belief that URR’s greater than 3-Tb do not mean the Peak Year is pushed out in bell curve fashion. Most new oil Discoveries will likely be Non-conventional but its supply is likely to dampen the Post Peak Decline Curve Slope … not significantly raise Peak Rate nor push out the Peak Date. In 2007, we have incorporated increased URR Estimates from OPEC, ASPO-IE, BP, Saudi Aramco, IEA & OGJ.

  6. Chart #5 ASPO-Ireland Scenarios 1991-2007: In July 2007, Colin Campbell raised his Peak Rate towards 94-mbd. This is a career high that surpasses his Estimated of 93-mbd (for 2009) made in 1999. Problematic of strict bottom-up forecasting is that New Project announcements for the 7-12 year range are historically absent and thus are outside of the medium/long term parameters of those analysts relying on facts rather than supposition. IOC’s, Agencies & some Analysts (e.g. Michael Lynch) seem to build in a slush component that precludes the upward revision issues of strict bottom-uppers. While not perfect, we are grateful to this pattern of upward/outward revisions of Peak Rate & Peak Date as the consistency is an intuitive and beneficial tool. Rather than ridicule such revisions, these Outlooks serve the purpose of setting a baseline for policy-makers. For NPC purposes, it's important to monitor the rate of their (real) changes moreso than the absolute numbers. If the revisions cease or turn downward … it's a sign!

  7. Chart #6 TrendLinesScenarios Avg remains 95-mbd in 2020: • The models & Outlooks continue to merge … • Pessimists continue to raise forecasts for Peak Rate & Peak Date in 2006/2007 • And Optimists are sharpening their pencils with increased their data being (instantly) scrutinized much more by media, peers, analysts & pundits • Thanx for your attention today ~ See our website for monthly updates to these charts!

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