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The state of messaging in the marketplace and the implications of the transition to IP messaging. An interview presentation prepared for AT&T by Abbot Moffat November 2011. Agenda. Introduction Messaging today Opportunities with IP Messaging Risks with IP Messaging Conclusions
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The state of messaging in the marketplace and the implications of the transition to IP messaging An interview presentation prepared for AT&T by Abbot Moffat November 2011
Agenda • Introduction • Messaging today • Opportunities with IP Messaging • Risks with IP Messaging • Conclusions • Questions / Discussion
Introduction • Abbot Moffat • Candidate for position on Paul O’Shaugnessy’s team • background • PC software (Microsoft, Lotus, start-ups) • Solar energy • about this presentation
Which messaging topics? • Voice & Voicemail • SMS & MMS • Email • IM • PoC/PTT
Messaging today - background Global mobile phone subscribers per country from 1990-2009. The growth in users has been exponential since they were first made available. Source: Wikipedia(modified by author)
Messaging today - background Mobile phones in use by country, recent dataSource: Wikipedia
Messaging today – rough statistics Active mobile phones in US 328 M Wikipedia 6/2011 83% of US adults use mobile phones 260 M Pew Internet 8/201175% of US teens (12-17) own mobile phones 19 M Pew Internet 4/2010 80% of US is connected to the Internet 250 M US Census Bureau 2010 92% of US Internet users are on email 230 M US Census Bureau 2010 Send/receive on average >150 emails/user/day, Royal Pingdom 1/2011majority of received email is spam25% of email users are corporate, 110 emails/day, 18% spam Radicati 2010 75% of US adult mobile phone users use SMS/MMS 195 M Pew Internet 9/2011 average of 41 texts/user/dayvs. average of 10 voice calls/user/day 88% of teen mobile phone users use SMS/MSM 18 M Pew Internet 4/2010 46% of US Internet users use Instant Messaging 115 M US Census Bureau 2010 average 50+ messages/user/day Royal Pingdom 4/2010
Messaging today Social web is biggest driver of messaging Users have many messaging choices, butmessaging is fragmented into separate silos • Each message type is accessed differently • Features like ability to save messages are inconsistent Email remains the most-used message type • Web-based email users declined 6% from 2009 to 2010 ComScore 1/2011 • Mobile-accessed email increased 36% in the same period SMS dominates messaging for mobile users • Roughly 2 to 1 over email, 4 to 1 over IMmobiThinking 7/2011 • CAGR has been ~100% for years, may be slowing Steven White 9/2010 MMS is driven by camera phones (photo & video) • Similar growth rate to SMSComverse 11/2009 • 50x to 60x fewer messages, 400x to 4000x more data IM is likely to grow. Seen as ‘free’ alternative to SMS • iMessageand similar offerings • Companies are offering support via IM
Messaging trends Next billion Internet users will be on mobile devices • leap-frog computers to Internet-connected mobile devices Mobile users prefer browser-based activities mobiThinking 7/2011to dedicated apps (except for games) • consistent UX • perceived cost • adoption of HTML5 will accelerate this Social web will continue to drive usage & features • browser use • presence • group calling, IM • device forwarding
What’s the difference with IP messaging? Goal for the customer experience: • no loss of current functionality (no difference) • new valuable services and features • always connected to ‘all my people, all my stuff, wherever I am’ • privacy / security concerns & mitigations For the operator • new infrastructure • mapping mobile phone numbers (identity) to IP addresses • everything is data • easier device integration, more kinds of devices • easier app/data integration, enabling 3rd-party developers • new / different security issues For the web • more people on the web • mobile-first page designs • reformatting tools, ‘on the fly’ auto-reformatting
Opportunities with IP Messaging • Integration of content (it’s all data) • Universal inbox • email • voicemail • SMS / MMS / offline IM • initiate IM / video chat / voice • conversation storage • merged address book • Carrier as ISP, delivering ‘Internet dial-tone’ • Fixed Internet provider (solution to the ‘last ¼ mile’ problem) • Mobile Internet provider • Single trusted provider for all services: voice, data, Internet • Single billing • Single support • ‘All services - all devices’ account view • Cross-device parental/usage control
Opportunities with IP Messaging ‘Native’ mobile phone text and multimedia messages actually use multi-protocol IM, fallback to SMS/MMS • also alerts and notifications Conversation hand-off between devices • Mobile phone to tablet or computer , voice to video chat • Computer to mobile device, interactive document sharing to voice Conversation delivered on multiple devices • IM on phone, share image or video on tablet or DNLA TV • Video chat on IP TV, document on tablet or IP/DNLA printer
Risks with IP Messaging • Competition from other operators • New competitors – cable, DSL, ??? • New hardware, new issues • Old features may not map 1:1 onto new capabilities • leads to customer dissatisfaction • IP-based IM will displace SMS / MMS • revenue impact • embrace early to gain market share? • Time to market, time to market share will be key differentiators
Conclusions Quality of Experience will be even more important than QoS Single provider for all services • Fixed voice & Internet • Mobile voice & Internet • with AT&T reliability • interoperating devices and integrated applications • Simplified ‘single account’ billing • Online account status / control = customer satisfaction & loyalty
Email projections from Radicati Source: Radicati
IM / IRC / Chat market share from billionsconnected Source: billionsconnected
SMS & MMS growth from Converse Note different scales for SMS & MMS Source: Converse