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Earthquake Early Warning Where we are and where we are going

Earthquake Early Warning Where we are and where we are going. Principal Collaborators Caltech Hauksson, E., Böse, M., Heaton, T. UC Berkeley Allen, R., Hellweg, P. Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Clinton, J., Cua, G. U. of Washington Vidale, J., Bodin, P.

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Earthquake Early Warning Where we are and where we are going

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  1. Earthquake Early WarningWhere we are and where we are going • Principal Collaborators • Caltech Hauksson, E., Böse, M., Heaton, T. • UC Berkeley Allen, R., Hellweg, P. • Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Clinton, J., Cua, G. • U. of Washington Vidale, J., Bodin, P. • SCECJordan, T., Maechling, P. • Moore Foundation Atherton, C. • USGS Given, D., Cochran, E., Oppenheimer, D. Doug GivenUSGS Earthquake Early Warning Coordinator CISN Steering Committee March 25, 2013

  2. ShakeMap CISN Display ShakeCast Pager ENS And more… CISN Post-seismic Earthquake Products

  3. Anza M4.7 .avi

  4. Receiving alerts today: • >50 scientists • CalEMA • Google.org • BART • LA Metro • Metrolink • San Francisco DEM • Amgen • So Cal Edison • UC Berkeley OEP • L.A. City • L.A. County • Riverside Co. • San Bernardino Co. • more… Current CISN EEW Status • Status today: • Demonstration system Next three years: Production Prototype Thanks to partnerships…

  5. Potential Uses of Early Warning? • Human Response • Drop, cover, and hold on • Evacuate hazardous areas • Brace for shaking(surgeons, dentists, etc.) • Automated Response • Slow or stop trains, traffic • Close valves, gates • Stop elevators • Open firehouse doors • Slow or stop machinery • ?

  6. Main Components of EEW System Sensors Users Processing Field telemetry Notifications • Dense sensors (seismic & GPS) • Reliable field telemetry • Fast processing to determine: • Location, magnitude • Fault extent & slip • Fast mass notification • End user interaction & education

  7. West CoastCenters Pacific Northwest • EEW is a natural extension of ANSS & CISN core capabilities • Leverage… • Technical • Management • Community engagement Northern California Southern California

  8. CISN will be transformed by EEW • More stations, upgraded stations • More robust telemetry • Tighter integration with (inclusion of) GPS • Need for more rigorous testing and monitoring for EEW than current products • More staff at Tier 1 centers • More interaction with users • More partnerships • Funding?

  9. CISN Funding (2011)Not including EEW Total ~$10.4M (USGS $8.9M, CalEMA $1.5M) Does not include CSMIP

  10. Investments in EEW “The USGS has directly funded research and development toward earthquake ‘early warning’ since 2006 with the goal of creating an operational warning capability in the highest-risk regions of the United States.” – Director, USGS • External grants R & D for EEW • Phase I & II (2006-2012) $2,093,851 • Phase III (2012-2015) 1st yr  $ 450,000 • ARRA California (2009-2011) $4,426,110 • Network equipment upgrades • MultiHazards Project (2008-2012) $1,618,150 • San Andreas sensors, digital upgrades,production computers, personnel Moore Foundation (2012-2015) USGS • Caltech $1,996,888 • UC Berkeley $2,040,889 • Univ. of Washington $1,848,351 • USGS $ 594,406 TOTAL $8,588,111 TOTAL $6,480,534

  11. Technical Progress on EEW • Dense sensors • Reliable telemetry • Fast processing for: • Location, magnitude • Fault extent & slip • Fast mass notification • End user education • Installing/upgrading sensors • Redesigning telemetry • R & D continues • Improving algorithms • Fin-Der, GPS techniques • IPAWS-WEA, phone app • Beta user outreach, UD v2.4, social science, web sites Sensors Users Processing Field telemetry Notifications

  12. ShakeOut finite fault - .avi

  13. Implementation Summary(with current modest funding levels) • Upgrade network infrastructure as opportunities arise • Continue algorithm development and implementation • Gordon & Betty Moore funding  R&D • USGS EEW funding (Phase III)  implementation • Create production thread - “operationalize” current demonstration thread • Develop West Coast architecture for redundant, fail-safe operation • Develop operational performance metrics and monitoring • Continue user interaction, create new partnerships • Complete implementation plan, cost benefit analysis, telemetry plan, etc. Alert Shake

  14. Full West Coast Implementation(estimate) • Personnel to bring ANSS (CISN) network staffing up to robust levels • Personnel at each center for EEW operation and user outreach • Personnel for EEW central implementation and testing • Support for continued algorithm & software development • 700 new or upgrades seismic stations & 300 GPS stations • Significant field telemetry upgrades

  15. California SB 135 on EEW

  16. Other Recent EEW Developments • BART “live” since Aug. 2012 • Production system is being built • UD v2.4 released, alpha phone app • ShakeAlert being installed at UW • Web sites created: shakealert.org & at partner sites • 1st draft of implementation plan with budget completed • Los Angeles area UASI funding for new & upgraded station • Partners developing strategy for congressional support

  17. Summary • USGS & CISN partners are committed to building and operating EEW for highest risk areas of CA • ShakeAlert has been sending test EEW notifications since January 2012 • Work has begun on the “production” system • Significant progress is being made in all parts of the system despite limited resources • Partners are coordinating to build support at federal and state levels Alert Shake

  18. Thank You

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