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Project Team Paul Worrlein Matt Steffan Josh English Azadeh Yazdani Brent Sullivan

Project Team Paul Worrlein Matt Steffan Josh English Azadeh Yazdani Brent Sullivan. Introduction. The Portland Streetcar runs on a 7 mile loop route connecting Northwest Portland, the Pearl District, Downtown, Portland State University and South Waterfront. Image courtesy of NextBus.

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Project Team Paul Worrlein Matt Steffan Josh English Azadeh Yazdani Brent Sullivan

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  1. Project Team Paul Worrlein Matt Steffan Josh English Azadeh Yazdani Brent Sullivan

  2. Introduction • The Portland Streetcar runs on a 7 mile loop route connecting Northwest Portland, the Pearl District, Downtown, Portland State University and South Waterfront.

  3. Image courtesy of NextBus

  4. NextBus • How accurate are the predictions? • NextBus claims the margin of error is less than one minute within five minutes of arrival • Within ten minutes of arrival, the margin of error is less than two minutes • These values were used as a basis for verification of arrival times

  5. Portland Streetcar Inc. • Streetcar headways are listed for three time blocks throughout day • Weekdays 9 am to 8pm 13 minute headway • All other hours 14-20 minute headway • These values were used as a basis of comparison for headways

  6. The issue • Passenger and Portland Streetcar Citizens Advisory Committee have expressed concern about the accuracy of arrival predictions displayed at streetcar stops

  7. Project goals • Collect sufficient data in order to provide a thorough analysis • Produce recommendation for Portland Streetcar Inc. regarding use of timing system for streetcar arrivals

  8. Methodology • Collect data at various stops along streetcar route North of Max line • Analyze/reduce data to confirm or refute accuracy claims of NextBus system

  9. Data Collection • Ideal conditions result in low deviation from expected arrival • Poor conditions result in large deviation from expected arrival

  10. Data Reduction • Compared predicted arrival times with actual arrival times • Found average discrepancies between actual and predicted arrival times • Looked at average values of headway between cars and distribution of headways throughout day

  11. Results

  12. Headway Results

  13. Headway Results

  14. Headway Results

  15. Observations • Weather • Unannounced street car arrivals • Traffic • Loading and unloading conditions • Problems with car door/ADA ramp extension • Route blockages

  16. Conclusion • Prediction of arrival times are within the margin of error claimed by NextBus • Observed headways confirmed those posted by Portland Streetcar Inc. • Problems with headway and arrival predictions were usually attributed to isolated uncontrollable events such as weather or emergency vehicles blocking streets.

  17. Recommendations • Portland Streetcar Inc. could petition NextBus to look into refining the prediction algorithm for delays from unpredictable events such as accidents and emergencies • System map showing current stop location and location of next streetcar, similar to NextBus website

  18. Proposed interactive streetcar display Image courtesy of NextBus

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