Does College Education Impact Health ? Evidence From Pre-Lottery Vietnam War Draft

1. Does College Education Impact Health ?Evidence From Pre-Lottery Vietnam War Draft Bo MacInnisInstitute for Social Research, University of Michigan E-Mail: macinnis@umich.edu

2. Motivations • Health behaviors and morbidities as potential mechanisms for • Understanding education-mortality relation • Curbing rising health care costs • College education • Steepest gradient observed • Steady declining males’ college enrollment

3. Preview of Main Findings • Strong instrument for college education • 3.1% increase in college enrollment rate • 3.7% increase in college completion rate • College completion • Reduce obesity, hypertension, Type 2 diabetes • College enrollment and completion • Smoking: reduce initiation & increase cessation • Serious psychological distress

4. A Quasi-Natural Experiment • Pre-lottery draft: 1965-1969 • Most draftees were aged 19-22 • Deferments were easily obtainable • College attendance • Children and other family hardship • High inductions • Consequence for males of cohorts 1945-50

5. A Quasi-Natural Experiment (cont.) • Draft lottery institutionalized in 1970 • Random Sequence Number (RSN) • 1970 lottery for cohorts 1946-50 • 1971-3 lottery for cohort 1951-3 respectively • Much reduced inductions • College deferments effectively eliminated • Consequence to males of cohorts 1951-1953

6. Annual Number of Inductions

7. Induction Risks and College Education

8. Induction Risks and Male-Female Difference in College Education

9. Treatment Exposure

10. Education-Health Literature • Instruments for college education • Arkes (2001): Unemployment rate. Reduce work-limiting health conditions • Currie and Moretti (2003): College opening. Increases infant’s birth weight • Lleras-Muney (2002), Adams (2002): Compulsory school law. Reduces mortality; increases good health

11. Education and Smoking • De Walque (2004), Grimard & Parent (2005) • Vietnam War draft: Card and Lemieux (2001) • Reduce smoking initiation • No evidence on smoking cessation • Contributions • Validity of counterfactuals • Discontinuity as research design • Endogenous effect of veteran status

12. National Health Interview Survey • NHIS 1998-2003 • Personal characteristics (veteran status) • Health outcomes: chronic conditions • Lifestyle behaviors: smoking • Body weight and height • Base sample • Males and females U.S. born of birth cohorts 1942-1953

13. Smoking Initiation and Cessation

14. DID Specifications Health = b*educ + b1*veteran + X*B + b2*trend + error • Linear probability model for educ, veteran, health • IV for educ = male * cohorts 1946-1950 • IV for veteran = male * draft age eligibility • Difference of age in 1967 and 19 (quartic terms) • trend = no/linear/quadratic trend • X = age, gender, race, survey year, and interactions • Estimator: Difference-in-Difference (DID)

15. Mean shift in females Male Male * Age (quartic) Age (quartic) Survey year Age * Survey year Age * Male * Survey year Region White White * Age (quartic) White * Male * Age (quartic) White * Male * Age * Survey year Specification: X

16. First Stage: College Education sample = U.S. born males and females of cohorts 1942-1953; sample size = 30,158; standard errors are in parentheses. ***, **, *: significant at 1%, 5%, 10%.

17. Impact on Smoking Initiation & Cessation

18. Impact on Health Outcomes

19. Robustness Checks • Control for linear and quadratic trends • Use various measures of induction risks as instruments for schooling and veteran

20. Costs & Benefits of College Degree

21. Costs & Benefits of College Degree

22. Conclusions • Quasi-natural experiment & RDD • Strong instrument for college education • Impact of college education on smoking, obesity, and diabetes • Policy implications • Increase college enrollment/completion rates