Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

1. Climate Change 2001:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Overview of WGII Findings Neil Leary IPCC Special Event, CoP6 Part II, Bonn-Germany, 17 July 2001

2. Preparation of the WGII Report • Written by 183 Lead and 243 Contributing Authors • Authors met multiple times during the 2 1/2 year assessment • Peer Reviewed • by scientific and technical experts • by governments • Report revised to address reviewer comments • 33 Review Editors oversaw the review/revision process • Accepted at 6th Session of IPCC WGII as “a comprehensive, objective, and balanced view” • Session attended by government delegates of 100 nations

3. Preparation of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) • 60 authors of the WGII Report drafted the SPM • A first draft was circulated to all lead authors, external reviewers and governments prior to a meeting of authors • The SPM was revised by authors based on written comments and discussion at the meeting • The revised draft was circulated to all governments for their consideration • Written comments submitted again • The authors met and revised the SPM again

4. Approval of WGII SPM • The SPM was approved at 6th Session of IPCC WGII • Approval signifies agreement that the SPM is consistent with the full report • Changes were made to the SPM at the WG Session • to clarify the language and • to highlight material of particular relevance to policymakers • 40 authors participated in the WG Session • Authors ensured that changes were scientifically valid and • that the final document was consistent with the full report

5. General Findings from WGII • Temperature increases have already affected physical and biological systems • Preliminary indications that human systems have been affected by increases in floods and droughts • Natural systems are vulnerable and some will be irreversibly damaged • Many human systems are sensitive to climate change and some are vulnerable • Projected changes in climate extremes could have major consequences • Risks of large-scale and possibly irreversible impactsare yet to be reliably quantified • Adaptation is a necessary complement to mitigation • Those with least resources have least capacity to adapt and are most vulnerable • Adaptation, sustainable development, and enhancement of equity can be mutually reinforcing.

6. Temperature changes have already affected many physical and biological systems

7. Types of Changes Seen Hydrology and Glaciers Glacier shrinkage Permafrost thawing Later freeze & earlier break up of river and lake ice Animals and Plants • Range shifts (latitudinal or altitudinal) • Abundance changes • Change in growing season length • Earlier flowering; emergence of insects; migration and egg-laying in birds • Morphology shifts (e.g. body & egg sizes)

8. Numbers of species or processes changing 90% of physical and 80% of biological cases identified are changing in the direction consistent with well-established temperature relationships. Birds Glaciers/ hydrology in direction expected Vegetation Invertebrates Amphibians Mammals opposite to direction expected

9. There are preliminary indications that some human systems have been affected by increases in floods and droughts

10. Catastrophic weather-related losses increased 10-fold from 1950s

11. Natural systems are vulnerable to climate change and some will be irreversibly damaged

12. Some Threatened Systems • Endorheic lakes: e.g. Caspian, Aral seas • Tropical glaciers and related water flows • Ecosystems with migration barriers - e.g. Montane ecosystems, Cape Floral Kingdom • Coral Reefs (1% of ocean area, 30% of marine species) • Mangroves- e.g. Sundarbans, last habitat of Royal Bengal Tiger • Endangered species

13. Many human systems are sensitive to climate change and some are vulnerable

14. Human Systems • Sensitive Systems • Water resources • Agriculture, forestry, fisheries • Human settlements • Industry, energy, financial services Vulnerabilities • Food and water security • Incomes and livelihoods • Human health • Infrastructure

15. Projected changes in climate extremes could have major consequences

16. Changes in extreme events (temperature) Higher maximum temperatures, more hotdays and heat waves over nearly all landareas (Very likely) • Increased death and serious illness in older agegroups and urban poor • Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlife • Shift in tourist destinations • Increased risk of damage to a number of crops • Increased electric cooling demand and reduced energy supplyreliability • Higher [Increasing] minimum temperatures,fewer cold days, frost days and cold wavesover nearly all land areas (Very likely) • Decreased cold-related human morbidity and mortality • Decreased damage to a number of crops, andincreased risk to others • Extended range and activity of some pest and diseasevectors • Reduced heating energy demand

17. Changes in extreme events (hydrological) More intense precipitation events (Verylikely, over many areas) • Increased flood, landslide, avalanche, and mudslide damage • Increased soil erosion • Increased flood runoff could increase recharge of some floodplain aquifers • Increased pressure on government and private insurance systems and disaster relief • Increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associatedrisk of drought (Likely) • Decreased crop yields • Increased damage to building foundations caused by ground shrinkage • Decreased water resource quantity and quality • Increased risk of forest fire

18. Risks of large scale and possibly irreversible impacts are yet to be reliably quantified

19. Very low likelihood in 21st century but increases with rate, magnitude and duration of climate change

20. Synthesis Article 2: The ultimate objective of this Convention … is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceedin a sustainable manner. Reasons for concern • Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems • Risks from Extreme Climate Events • Distribution of Impacts • Aggregate Impacts • Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities A multi-dimensional basis for providing scientific and technical information relevant to policy decisions on “dangerous” levels of interference with the climate system.

21. Comparing reasons for concern Global mean warming oC Year I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems II Risks from Extreme Climate Events III Distribution of Impacts IV Aggregate Impacts V Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities

22. The WG II contribution to the IPCC Third Assessment Report provides the clearest evidence yet that the effects of climate change will be widespread and should be taken seriously. Summary • For larger amounts of change, projected benefits diminish, projected damages increase, and risks associated with large scale discontinuities become more important • For small amounts of climate change, benefits are projected for some sectors and regions, although the majority of people are likely to be adversely affected