1 / 17

Urbanization, Climate Risks and Uncertainties

Urbanization, Climate Risks and Uncertainties. 2014 NCAR Uncertainties in Climate Research An Integrated Approach Paty Romero Lankao. URBAN FUTURES * * * * * * * * * * * www.ral.ucar.edu/csap/themes/urbanfutures. Goal. Motivation

trey
Download Presentation

Urbanization, Climate Risks and Uncertainties

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Urbanization, Climate Risks and Uncertainties 2014 NCAR Uncertainties in Climate Research An Integrated Approach Paty Romero Lankao • URBANFUTURES • * * * * * * * * * * * • www.ral.ucar.edu/csap/themes/urbanfutures

  2. Goal • Motivation • Research on urban areas, urbanization and risk to explore (un)certainties • Urbanization and urban areas • Scale • Beijing geographyblog.eu Shanghai • Mexico City 2012

  3. Urban Riskand Vulnerability Capacity Romero-Lankao, Hughes, Rosas, Qin, Borquez, Lampis (2014)

  4. 1. Why urbanization, urban areas and risk? Motivation • Research focus on • Exposure, vulnerability neglected • Negative impacts of urbanization • Different definitions of urbanization and urban areas • Limit our understanding of current/future differences in urban risk across and within countries

  5. Rooted in place context, Urbanization: shifts in No standardized definition of urban areas Politico-administrative boundaries Built-environment lay out (urban form) Economic, mobility, informational and operational connections (urban function) Socio-institutional, ecological and built-environment systems • Economic dynamics and capital accumulation • Demographics • Culture and political influence • Built environment and infrastructure • Changes in ecosystem services and functions

  6. What do we know about urbanization and urban areas? • Scale • A five-fold increase of urban populations (1950-2011) • In 2003, 3 billion urban dwellers; by 2030, 5 billion Romero-Lankao and Gnatz: 2011

  7. Rate • In 1950 we had 75 cities of 1-5 million people • In 2011,447 • By 2020, 527 Romero-Lankao and Gnatz: 2011

  8. Urban population projections, by region (2010–2020) Romero Lankao and Gnatz (2011)Data UN (2009) countries own reporting • Location • Currently most urbanization is happening in • Asia/Pacific and Africa • Small and medium cities • Challenges and opportunities

  9. Variations in urban form (risk-scapes) What are we uncertain about? Recent and future Variations in urbanization and development paths • Across and within countries • Within urban areas • Some stabilizing, while others follow different development trajectories • Built-environment, infrastructure • Across and within countries • Within urban areas Romero-Lankao, Gurney, Seto et al., 2014

  10. Why scale? Urban vulnerability and risk vary • With the spatial, temporal, or analytical dimension used by scholars • Across urban households, neighborhoods and cities • Scale can influence a study’s findings (uncertainties) Mexico City (Photo by Romero-Lankao)

  11. Dynamics of urbanization shape risk (regional to global) Country groups 8 • Not only exposure but also sensitivity and capacity • Urbanization and economic indicators to cluster countries • Cross-correlation of clusters with national-level normalized sub-indices of hazard exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (World Risk Index 2012 ) • Not only levels but also rates of urbanization influence vulnerability 10 6 Sensitivity Lack of Adaptive capacity Exposure Source: Garschagenand Romero-Lankao2013 Climatic Change

  12. Mexico: Risks and Challenges to urban adaptation across urban areas Data Methods Ordered Weighted Averaging to aggregate Hazard exposure index Vulnerability index Plotting of each urban area in a two-dimensional space Y-Axis = hazard exposure X-Axis = vulnerability Construction of single metric of risk Data Envelopment Analysis • Hazard exposure • Floods, droughts, storms… • (Desinventar database) • Socio-demographic micro-census (12 million people) • Education, income, employment, age, gender,.. • Access to infrastructure • Municipalities spatially aggregated into urban areas

  13. Preliminary results

  14. Preliminary results

  15. Vulnerabiliby/Capacity and Adaptation vary across scale (Bogota, Buenos Aires, Mexico & Santiago) Note: blue= determinants of vulnerability/adaptation capacity black = actual adaptation actions • Romero-Lankao (NCAR), Hughes (EPA), Hardoy(IIED), Qin (Missouri), Rosas-Huerta (UAM), Bórquez(Chile), Lampis (U. Colombia) (2014)

  16. Informality shapes exposure, capacity and actual responses • Wealthy forms of growth, • enjoy state sanction • receive infrastructural protections (in detriment of poor neighborhoods) • Households in “illegal neighborhoods” • Low, precarious income and benefits (buffers vs. hazards) • Informal tenure of land and housing • Prevents from accessing credit lines and insurance, stigmatizes • Households with legally acknowledged ownership tend to invest more in home improvements Buenos Aires

  17. Uncertainty related to • Research questions we ask • Methods and data we use • Scale: spatial, temporal, or analytical dimension of analysis

More Related