Climate and Cities Understanding the Risks and Costs

1. Climate and CitiesUnderstanding the Risks and Costs Warren Evans, Director, Environment Department The World Bank

2. Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation • Cities and urban areas consume 75 per cent of the world’s energy and produce nearly 80 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. • The battle to prevent catastrophic climate change will be won or lost in our cities. • Millions of urban dwellers and businesses will be adversely impacted by climate change • Minimizimng devastating social, economic and environmental impacts requires action NOW to increase climate resilience

3. Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation At the World Bank 1993 Began implementing / leveraging GEF funding for climate change 1999 Pioneered carbon finance through $180m prototype Carbon Fund- now at over $2 billion carbon funds 1999 ”Fuel for Thought” Environment Strategy for the energy sector 2001 Environment Strategy with climate change pillar 2006-8 Clean Energy Investment Framework (CEIF): • increased energy access, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa; (ii) accelerated transition to a low carbon energy economy; (iii) adaptation to climate variability and change. 2007 IDA and Climate Change Paper 2008 Strategic Framework on Climate Change and Development; Sustainable Infrastructure Action Plan

4. World Bank Strategic Framework on Development and Climate Change Six Areas for Action • Support climate actions in development processes • Mobilize concessional and innovative finance • Facilitate development of innovative market mechanisms • Leverage private finance • Accelerate development and deployment of new technology • Step up policy research, knowledge and capacity building

5. Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response Low Income High Income Middle Income Six Climate ThreatsTop 12 Countries Most at Risk from Each Source: World Bank staff.

6. Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response Climate Risks Are Higher for Poor Countries Source: World Bank staff.

7. Impacts on Agriculture… Adaptation: the example of Africa • Where will rural families go?

8. Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response How Much Does Adaptation Cost?There Are Some Estimates, but the Ranges Are Wide and Uncertain Developing Countries — Estimated Cost of Adaptation by 2030 • The implied change in temperature is 1.5º C for 2030 • Cost estimates based on expert opinion

9. Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response Good Adaptation is Cost-Effective Investment in physical infrastructure • Sea level rise likely to carry high costs • Adaptation (dark green) buys a large reduction in climate change costs (light green) Source: European Environment Agency.

10. Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response Available Resources Mitigation(Total Needs est.$170bn+ / year) Carbon Market: CDM&JI < $ 8 billion for FY09 Both GEF $ 0.25 blln for FY09 World Bank Group (IBRD/IDA/ IFC/MIGA) $1.9 billion for FY09 GEF $ 0.25 blln Climate Investment Funds by MDBs $ 6 billion Main Resourcesto addressClimate Change Adaptation Fund $ 0.3-0.5 blln UNDP $ 0.90-120 blln for adaptation Other MDBs$3 billionfor FY09 EUGlobal ClimateChange Alliance€ 0. 3 blln GFDRR $ 0.07 blln Adaptation(Total Needs est. $28-67bn / year) FY09 estimates are projections Huge Gap

11. URBAN RISKS - Resilience Understand vulnerabilities including displacement Understand structural relationships> potential failures in urban systems Understand conflicts between built and natural environment Understand capacity to recover> Livelihoods and poverty

12. Where People are going… • To cities • To coasts • Of 30 largest cities, 20 in coastal areas • Thousands of smaller cities and towns at risk • Coasts will be moving • Should be considering provision of infratructure for cities on new coastline • Should be considering space for “new” natural areas

13. Barriers • Complexity- lack of knowledge • Lack of awareness • Lack of integration between and across government and other stakeholders • Lack of resources

14. Revitalizing Spatial Planning • Surge in informal settlements • Economic pressures • Short-sighted development • Optimizing mitigation and adaptation actions • Harmonizing natural and built infrastructure • Political leadership

15. Ecosystem-based vs Infrastructure Solutions

16. Two Major New InitiativesClimate Resilient CitiesA Primer onReducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters and Climate Change Impact and Adaptation In Asian Coastal Cities

17. Climate Resilient CitiesA Primer onReducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters • The Primer outlines city typologies • It integrates climate change with DRM • It presents a “hot spot” tool for identifying city-specific priorities for action • It identifies both adaptation and mitigation strategies at the local level, based on learning from regional and global sound practices • The Primer is applicable to a range of cities - from those starting to build awareness on climate change to those with climate change strategies and institutions already in place

18. Objectives of the Primer • To understand the issues and impact of climate change at the city level • To engage in a participatory approach to establish vulnerabilities to potential climate change impacts • To learn about the why and the how through illustrative examples from other cities • To build resilience to future disasters into planning and design through no-regrets endeavors • To understand the requirements for moving from theory to practice • To engage in partnerships and shared learning with other cities facing similar problems

19. Program Components A. Develop local resilience action plans • Populate Hot Spot risk assessment matrix and compile City Information Base (Primer tools) • Identify priorities for action & design feasible programs B. Strengthen national and local partners for implementation scale-up in initial countries • Identify and engage national/ local partners at outset C. Scale up implementation of resilience action plan development to 100 cities in East Asia

20. Climate Change Impact and Adaptation In Asian Coastal Cities • Joint World Bank, ADB, JICA (formerly JBIC) Institute study • Future climate-change induced flood implications for 2050 • Bangkok, HCMC, Kolkata, Manila Objectives • Strengthen the understanding of the economic, social and environmental impacts of climate variability & change, and the vulnerabilities of the urban community • Provide a set of options to mayors, national level decision makers and urban planners on key policy measures needed to address adaptation to climate change in coastal cities

21. Area affected by regular floods driven by heavy monsoon rains and high tides willand flood duration will increase • Salinity intrusion will increase • Extreme events will increase • Storm surge the key driver for extreme events and the most damaging and influential of climate change parameters

22. Significant risk of water shortages during the dry season due to water quantity and quality. • Urban population likely to be much higher than projections, in part due to climate change refugees • Surface and ground water treatment plants are at risk of flooding and salinity • Transportation network affected