Trends in Video Delivery

1. Trends in Video DeliveryMichael AdamsVP, Application Software Strategy March 2008

2. Agenda • How is the delivery of video changing? • Drivers • Trends • The future – 8 years out • Summary

3. How is the video delivery model changing • Trends • From One-way to Two-way • From Broadcast to On-demand • From TiVo to nPVR • From TV to TV, PC and mobile (3 screens) • Why? • Customers are demanding it • Web leads them to expect it • Targeted advertising requires it • What are the delivery network bandwidth consequences?

4. From One-way to Two-way • HFC enabled real-time, two-way by segmenting the network into small service groups with manageable ingress noise characteristics. • Real-time, two-way signaling was first deployed in digital cable deployments starting in late 1990’s. • Real-time, two-way was a key enabling technology for VOD • It also enables High Speed Internet and Voice over IP services • Transition completed by 2005 (large operators)

5. From Broadcast to Unicast • TV is gradually moving from a broadcast to a unicast delivery model. • This trend started with on-demand programming for example movies on-demand and subscription on-demand (e.g. HBO on demand). • Even for live programming, such as sports and news, there are advantages to unicast delivery: • Advertising can be targeted according to individual customer demographics and preferences • Splicing technology (called VOD play-listing) is now being incorporated into VOD servers • nPVR services can be seamlessly added without the need for an expensive DVR

6. From TiVo to nPVR • TiVo is the service so loved by consumers it was even profiled in “Sex in the City”, but it does have drawbacks: • You have to remember to program it • Only so many tuners • Only so much storage • Prone to failure (spinning memory) • Cost • Network Personal Video Recorder (nPVR) emulates a DVR and solves most of these problems. • TWC pioneered an effort to obtain programming rights successfully with their “Start Over” service.

7. From TV to TV, PC and mobile devices • For subscribers who had graduated college by 2005, PC is seen as an additional way to view video programming. • For those younger, it is seen as a replacement! • Comcast and TWC are starting to realize that their emerging new competitors are iTunes, NetFlix, and Blockbuster. • Mobile video is the latest craze in Asia, and will likely spread in Europe and America. It is dependent on deployment of next generation wireless protocols (e.g. WiMax and LTE).

8. Delivery network bandwidth consequences? • At 100% unicast, the network must be able to support concurrent sessions to every active device at peak busy hour. • By segmenting the network into smaller service groups (typically 250 homes-passed or less), this is eminently achievable. • For example, using HD MPEG-4 AVC at 8 Mbps, and 50% peak-usage: 250 * 80% penetration * 1.7 STBs/home * 50% * 8 Mbps = 1360 Mbps = 36 * 6 MHz channels @ 38 Mbps per channel = 216 MHz of downstream capacity.

9. Analog Longevity and Dual Must-Carry • Under the FCC’s report and order, Cable Operators will be required from Feb 18 2009 to Feb 17 2012 to: • Carry a local broadcaster’s digital signal in analog and digital formats; or, • Carry the signal only in digital format, provided that all subscribers have the “necessary equipment” (digital set-top boxes) to view the broadcast content. • Carry the high-definition signal of broadcasters in high-definition format. • But this is “only” signals from local broadcasters; there is no legal obstacle to migration of cable programming to all-digital.

10. Historical Peak Modem Throughput Trends* Bandwidth (bps) The Era of Wideband Cable Modems 100G 100 Gbps The Era of Cable Modems 10G 10 Gbps ??? 1G 1 Gbps The Era of Dial-Up Modems 100 Mbps 100M 50 Mbps 12 Mbps 10M 10 Mbps ??? 1 Mbps 5 Mbps 1 Mbps 1M Peak Modem Throughput (bps) 256 Kbps 100 Kbps 512 Kbps 56 Kbps 100K 28 Kbps 128 Kbps 90 Kbps 33 Kbps 9.6 Kbps 30 Kbps 10K 14.4 Kbps 1.2 Kbps Average per-sub bandwidth 2.4 Kbps 1K 300 bps 100 10 * with thanks to Tom Cloonan, ARRIS 1 Year 2016 2010 2014 2006 1986 1998 1982 2002 1994 1990

11. Trend Predicts 200 Mbps Modems in 2016* Bandwidth (bps) The Era of Wideband Cable Modems Constant Increase = ~1.4835x every year 100G 100 Gbps The Era of Cable Modems 10G 10 Gbps 1 Gbps 1G The Era of Dial-Up Modems 200 Mbps 100M 50 Mbps 12 Mbps 11 Mbps 10M 1 Mbps 5 Mbps 1 Mbps 1M Peak Modem Throughput (bps) 256 Kbps 100 Kbps 512 Kbps 56 Kbps 100K 28 Kbps 128 Kbps 90 Kbps 33 Kbps 9.6 Kbps 30 Kbps 10K 14.4 Kbps 1.2 Kbps Average per-sub bandwidth will increase by a factor of ~100 over the next 8 years! 2.4 Kbps 1K 300 bps 100 10 * with thanks to Tom Cloonan, ARRIS 1 Year 2016 2010 2014 2006 1986 1998 1982 2002 1994 1990

12. Comparison of DOCSIS Bandwidth Per Fiber Node (over time)* Year 2008 Year 2016 Change Homes Passed per Fiber Node 1024 256 x0.25 DOCSIS Take-rate 30% 40% X1.33 # DOCSIS subs/Fiber Node 308 102 x0.33 Average Per-Sub DOCSIS DS BW 100 Kbps 11 Mbps x110 VoIP Take-rate 15% 25% X1.67 # 150-Kbps VoIP subs/Fiber Node 154 64 x0.42 Offered Erlangs/Fiber Node w/ 14% utilization 22 9 x0.41 VoIP DS BW for P(B)=0.5% 5.1 Mbps 2.7 Mbps x0.53 DOCSIS DS BW/Fiber Node 36 Mbps 1.125 Gbps x31 # DOCSIS QAMs/Fiber Node 1 QAM 26 QAMs x26 Average Per-Sub DOCSIS US BW 44 Kbps 4.8 Mbps x109 DOCSIS US BW/Fiber Node 14 Mbps 480 Mbps x34 * with thanks to Tom Cloonan, ARRIS

13. Summary • We are seeing a compounding of trends: • From One-way to Two-way • From Broadcast to Unicast • From TiVo to nPVR • From TV to TV, PC, and mobile devices • Delivery network consequences are manageable with today’s technology

14. Thank You Questions? ------------- Thank You!