Water-Energy-Environment Nexus in Central Asia

1. Water-Energy-Environment Nexus in Central Asia U.S. Embassy Tashkent

2. Central Asian Water-Energy-Environment Nexus News Tajikistan Offended By Russian Leader's Remarks On Water Use In Region 02/11/2009 Regional Politics Get In Way of Bringing Power to the People 03/03/2009 World Bank Group Statement on Water-Energy in Central Asia 03/11/2009 Tajikistan Warns Of Possible Water Shortage Crisis 01/21/2009 Tajikistan: Water Is Weapon In Uzbek Electricity Talks 01/21/2009 Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Build Hydro Power Station, Despite Uzbekistan’s Objection 04/12/2009 Uzbekistan Will Halve Energy To Tajikistan 02/12/2009 Examination of Allies: What Side of the Fence will Moscow Take in the Water Dispute? 04/22/2009 Battle Lines Drawn In Central Asian Water Dispute 04/19/2009 Thaw in Tajik-Uzbek Relations 03/12/2009 Tajik President Asks UN to Help Solve Central Asia’s Water Problem 04/15/2009

4. Amudarya and Syrdarya Rivers (116 km3) Total (129 km3=100%) Natural losses (6.5 km3=5%) Return water 33 km3=29% Back to rivers (18 km3=55%) Reused water (5 km3=15%) Discharged into depressions (10 km3=30%) Losses due to poor water management (55-70%) Groundwater (13 km3) Total withdrawals (120 km3=93%) 24 million people depend on irrigation Irrigation, 90% Estimated 1.7 bln/yr of economic losses Industry, 5.4% Drinking, 3.2% Env. flow, 1.4% Aral Sea (N/A)

5. Total water resources: 116 km3/year 50% 52% 25% 20% 10% 10% 2% 5% 11% 1% 5%/ 12%

6. New dimensions of regional security in Central Asia 90% and 95% of energy in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan come from hydro Energy Security Food Security Food security/Water scarcity/Access to Water/Pro-poor Irrigation Water Security Environ-mental Security Environmental refugees (Environment and Security Initiative) Water security is a common feature

7. Afghanistan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Afghanistan Water Water Kazakhstan Coal Kyrgyzstan Water Electricity Water Tajikistan Electricity Electricity Water Water Turkmenistan Electricity Uzbekistan Electricity Gas Gas Electricity Gas Regional Inter-Dependence: Water-Energy Nexus CONSUMER SUPPLIER

8. Key Issues Unilateral developments Transboundary impact Compliance with treaty obligations Increasing demand Impact of global climate change

9. TAJIKISTAN 1 ROGHUN UZBEKISTAN Shurob 2 ROGHUN Status: Under construction Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation Volume: 13 km3 Capacity: 3600 MW Cost: 2.2 Billion USD NUREK 3 Baipaza 4 TURKMENISTAN 5 Sangtuda-1 6 Sangtuda-2 SANGTUDA 1 & 2 7 Golovnaya Status: Under construction Purpose: Hydropower Duration: 2005-2010 Capacity: 670+220 MW Cost: 650 and 182 Million USD Perepadnaya 8 10 DASHTIJUM DASHTIJUM Tsentralnaya 9 Status: Proposed Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation Volume: 17.6 km3 Capacity: 4000 MW Cost: 3.2 Billion USD AFGHANISTAN

10. Kambarata I&II Projects in KG Fergana Reservoirs in UZ Koksaray Reservoir in KZ Unilateral developmentsSyrdarya Basin: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan Status: Under construction Status: Under construction Status: Under construction Purpose: Hydropower Volume: 4.7 km3 Duration: 2005-2010 Capacity: 190+360 MW Cost: 2.2 Billion USD Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releases Volume: 2.5 km3 Duration: 2004-2010 Cost: N/A Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releases Volume: 3 km3 Duration: 2007-2010 Cost: 200 Million USD

11. Karashor Depression: Golden Century Lake site Status: Under construction Purpose: Agricultural development Duration: 2002-2012 Volume: 132 km3 Cost: 9 Billion USD Golden Century Canal Amudarya River Karakum Canal Unilateral developmentsGolden Century Lake of Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Iran Afghanistan

12. [possible] Unilateral DevelopmentAmudarya River Basin: Afghanistan STATUS-QUO • According to the 1946 agreement between the Soviet Union and Afghanistan, Afghanistan is entitled to use up to 9 km3/yr from the River Pyanj, a tributary of the Amudarya. Afghanistan currently uses about 2 km3/yr. POTENTIAL IMPACT • Full use of Afghanistan’s quota for water use from the Pyanj (9 km3/yr), fixed by the 1946 agreement, could radically change the water flow along the Pyanj and would have a significant impact on the downstream flow regime of the Amudarya. PROPOSED PROJECTS • Proposed 15% expansion of irrigated lands in the northern Afghanistan region, which contribute to the Amudarya flow, may require an increase of withdrawals by 6 km3/yr.

13. Downstream view of upstream developments • New dam projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan violate existing agreements and against to international law. Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan must receive prior-consent of downstream countries. • Upstream countries are under obligation to prevent, control and reduce transboundary impacts (1992 UNECE Convention on Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes) • Upstream countries can save energy through electricity loss reduction programs. For example, only 65% of the energy produced in Kyrgyzstan reaches the end consumer. If losses in the electricity systems were cut to 10% from 35%, the annual saving in winter energy would be about 2,000 GWh (63% of the annual energy deficit in the country). • Upstream projects should not to cause significant harm and provide adequate protection of transboundary ecosystems (1997 UN Convention on the Law of Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses)

14. Upstream response • New projects will benefit the whole Central Asian region. Downstream countries are invited to participate in the construction of upstream projects. • Downstream countries should invest into new irrigation technologies to make the use of water in irrigation more efficiently. Right to development under international law – hydropower development is the only viable option for energy security and economic growth 14

15. Date/place Parties Title Governing Rules Institutions 02/18/1992 Almaty, Kazakhstan Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Agreement on Cooperation in Management of Use and Protection of Water Resources of Interstate Sources Soviet time water allocation rules prevail; joint decision making; not to cause harm ICWC; BWO Amudarya; BWO Syrdarya 03/26/1993 Kyzylorda, Kazakhstan Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Agreement on Joint Activities to Address the Aral Sea Issues Sustainable development; obligation to cooperate ICAS/IFAS 01/16/1996 Charjev, Turkmenistan Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Agreement on Cooperation in Water Management Issues 50/50 division of Amudarya flow at Kerki river post TM Ministry of Water, UZ Ministry of Ag and Water 04/17/1998 Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan Agreement on Use of Water and Energy Resources of Syrdarya Basin Irrigation-energy trade-offs BWO Syrdarya UDC Energy Central Asian Water Related Agreements

16. EC IFAS Branch in Nukus, Uzbekistan International Fund to Save the Aral Sea (IFAS) President IFAS Board of Directors IFAS Executive Committee EC IFAS Branch in Kyzylorda, Kazakhstan Interstate Commission for Water Coordination EC IFAS Branch in Dashauz, Turkmenistan Interstate Sustainable Development Commission BWO Syrdarya BWO Amudarya Secretariat SIC ISDC SIC ICWC Central Asian Regional Institutions HEADS OF STATE COUNCIL

17. Impact of global climate change “…Central Asia is another region severely affected by climate change. An increasing shortage of water, which is both a key resource for agriculture and a strategic resource for electricity generation, is already noticeable. The glaciers in Tajikistan lost a third of their area in the second half of the 20th century alone, while Kyrgyzstan has lost over a 1000 glaciers in the last four decades. There is thus considerable additional potential for conflict in a region whose strategic, political and economic developments as well as increasing trans-regional challenges impact directly or indirectly on EU interests…” Council of European Union Report 7249/08, “Climate Change and International Security” - ‘Solana Report’ (March 3, 2008)

18. GDP (109 USD) (2007) Dependence on transboundary waters (%) Self-sufficiency in energy (%) Military spending (106 USD) Official development assistance (106 USD) (2006) Kyrgyzstan 5.2 3.5 0 73 40 311 Tajikistan 6.7 3.7 0 69 52 240 Upstream 11.9 7.2 0 71 92 551 Kazakhstan 15.5 103.8 42 100 1,220 172 Turkmenistan 5.0 12.9 94 100 113 26 Uzbekistan 26.9 22.3 77 100 902 149 Downstream 47.4 139 71 100 2,235 347 Central Asia 59.3 146.2 18 86 2327 898 Factors affecting regional relations on water allocations Countries Population (106 ) (2007)

19. 1991 2003 2001 1991 1999 1991 1992 1992 2000 2004 1992 2002 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2005 2006 2007-08 Timeline of Water-related Institutional and Treaty Events 1991-2008 1993: Commonwealth of Independent States 2001: Eurasian Economic Community 1998: UN Special Program for Economies of Central Asia 1994: Central Asian Economic Cooperation 2001: TW Framework between KZ and CN 1995: Nukus Declaration of Heads of State 2000: KZ accedes to 1992 UNECE Water Convention Collapse of USSR 1993: Kyzylorda Agreement: ICAS / IFAS 1998: Syrdarya Framework Agreement 2002: Dushanbe Declaration of Heads of State 2006: MoU between AG and TJ 1992: Almaty Agreement: ICWC, BWOs 1996: Amudarya Agreement between UZ and TU 2000: Chu-Talas Agreement between KG and KZ 2006: Framework Agreement on EP and SD in CA 1999: Agreements on (1) Hydrometeorology and (2) Parallel Operation of Energy Systems 2007: UZ accedes to 1992 UNECE and 1997 UN Water Conventions 1994: Aral Sea Basin Program Phase I 2002: Aral Sea Basin Program Phase II 1992: Economic Cooperation Organization 1997: Central Asian Economic Cooperation Organization 2001: Shanghai Cooperation Organization

20. The Aral Sea August 18, 2008 March 4, 2010