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Population Ageing and the Labour Market: Some Insights From Australia

Population Ageing and the Labour Market: Some Insights From Australia. by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centre, The University of Adelaide

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Population Ageing and the Labour Market: Some Insights From Australia

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  1. Population Ageing and the Labour Market: Some Insights From Australia by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centre, The University of Adelaide Presentation to Population Ageing and the Labour Market International Research Workshop, Gallagher Academy of Performing Arts, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand 2nd February 2012

  2. Outline of Presentation • Introduction • Demographic Dimensions of Ageing in Australia • The Intergenerational Report • Labour Market Impacts • Where Will the Future Workforce Come From? • Baby Boomers and Work • Conclusion

  3. Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency RatesSource: World Bank, 2006

  4. Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) Source:ESCAP 2011; Population Reference Bureau 2010 and 2011; ABS 2011; Statistics New Zealand, 2011

  5. Contemporary Dynamics of Australian Population Change • Mortality • Fertility • Migration • Ageing

  6. Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947 to 2011Source: ABS 1997 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

  7. Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2009Source:Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins Expectation of Life at Birth Males Females 1947 66.1 70.6 2009 79.3 83.9

  8. Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2009Source: ABS

  9. Fertility Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2009Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues

  10. ABS Projections of the Population of Australia, 2005 and 2008Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008

  11. Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data

  12. Baby Boomers 2006 • 27.5% of Australian Population • 41.8% of Australian Workforce

  13. Australia: Differences Between Age Groups at 30th June, 2010Source: ABS 2011, Australian Demographic Statistics September Quarter 2010, p.19

  14. Structural Ageing:Australia: Change by Age: 2006 – 2021; 2031 (Series B)Source: ABS 2008 Projections

  15. The Third Intergenerational ReportSource: Swan 2010, p.xi

  16. The Third Intergenerational Report (cont)Source: Swan 2010, p.xvi

  17. Responding to the Implications of an Ageing PopulationSource: Swan 2010, p.xiii

  18. Population and Workforce Change, 2000-2010(McDonald 2011) • Net increase in jobs 207,000 or 2.1% p.a. • Net increase in population 1.5% p.a. • Components of change - 12% increased participation - 88% population increase, mainly migration

  19. Future Demand for Workers • 2011-12 Budget: 200,000 net new workers per year • If 2000-10 pattern is continued – 2.55m extra jobs by 2020 • Skills Australia projects around an extra 4.36m workers by 2025

  20. Where Will the Extra Workers Come From? Internal • Entrants to the workforce outnumbering those leaving it • Increased participation levels External • Net permanent migration • Temporary migration

  21. “Population” Issues • Not just numerical – crucial to productivity • Importance of training – productivity • Impact on training system

  22. Australia: Population Aged 18-24, Actual 1961 to 2006 and Projected 2011 to 2031Source: ABS Censuses and ABS 2008 Projections, Series B

  23. Increase in Post School Training Participation Levels • Demands for a more skilled and better trained labour force • Government objective to lift percentage of 25-34 year olds with a university education from 32 to 40% • Added pressure of education export industry currently valued at AUD$17.2 billion

  24. Australia: A Country of Immigration • 24 percent born overseas • 26 percent Australia-born with an overseas-born parent(s) • 924,520 persons temporarily present at 30/6/10 • 140,610 incoming permanent settlers in 2009-10 • 68,311 “onshore” settlers in 2009-10 • 86,277 permanent departures in 2009-10 • Around 1 million Australians living in another country

  25. Higher Degree Qualification by Australia- and Overseas-Born, 1981-2006Source: 1981 to 2001 Census One Percent files, ABS 2006 Census

  26. External Sources of Workers • Permanent Migration • Temporary Migration

  27. Source: Hoffmann, 2011

  28. Source: Hoffmann, 2011

  29. Source: Hoffmann, 2011

  30. Source: Hoffmann, 2011

  31. Participation Issues • Recent increase only in older ages • Need to increase participation among excluded groups • Need to increase transition from disability to work • Need to increase older worker participation • 60% of older persons leaving the workforce do so involuntarily (Knox 2003)

  32. Australia: Labour Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex, March 2000 and 2011Source: ABS Labour Force Australia, March 2011

  33. Baby Boomers and Work • Compared to previous generations • Current workforce perspectives • Health and welfare participation

  34. Educational Attainment Baby Boomers and their Parents at Age 45-54 Source: ABS 1981; 2006

  35. Employment Status by Gender Baby Boomers and their Parents at Age 45-54 Source: ABS 1981; 2006 NB: Not stated excluded

  36. Employment and Volunteering Status – Baby Boomers 1946-1965Source: NWAHS TFU Survey 2 (CATI), 2007

  37. Employment Status by Each Baby Boomer Age Cohort and by GenderSource:NWAHS TFU Survey 2 (CATI), 2007

  38. Hours per Week in Paid Work by Age Cohort and by GenderSource:NWAHS TFU Survey 2 (CATI), 2007

  39. Employment by Self Rated Health Status – Baby Boomers 1946-1965Source:NWAHS TFU Survey 2 (CATI), 2007

  40. Baby boomers with Poor Self Rated Health by Labour Force Status, Age Cohort, and GenderSource:NWAHS TFU Survey 2 (CATI), 2007 1 In the labour force=f/time, p/time, casual, unemployed; 2 Not in the labour force=retired, home duties, unable to work **p<.001

  41. Australia: Percentage of Population Overweight or Obese by Age and Sex, 2004-05Source: ABS 2008, p.7

  42. Conclusion • Australia is well placed demographically to meet challenges of next two decades - fertility level - positive attitude towards immigration - excellent immigration infrastructure - economic buoyancy - ageing is manageable • However to capitalise on these advantages will require sound policy intervention and development across a range of areas

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