NAACP CIVIC ENGAGEMENT 2019 PROGRAM OVERVIEW

1. NAACP CIVIC ENGAGEMENT 2019 PROGRAM OVERVIEW Leon Russell, National Chair NAACP National Board of Directors Karen Boykin-Towns, National Vice Chair NAACP National Board of Directors Derrick Johnson, President and CEO NAACP Sheila E. Isong, National Political Director NAACP Dominik Whitehead, National Civic Engagement Director NAACP Jamal R. Watkins, Vice President of Civic Engagement NAACP

2. Building Political Power Through Civic & Unit Engagement Alignment 5 Years and Beyond Membership Is Power Build Back Power ElectionsHave Consequences

3. MID-TERM ELECTIONS 2018 • FAIR LINES (REDISTRICTING) • STAND UP AND BE COUNTED – CENSUS 2020 GROUND GAME To avoid a Constitutional Convention (28 States so far out of the needed 34), to ensure that our communities are being fully supported and to move a winning agenda we have to reclaim our states. 2019 • 59th QUADRENNIAL U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION • 2020 DECENNIAL CENSUS 2020 • FAIR LINES (REDISTRICTING) 2021 • MID-TERM ELECTIONS 2022

4. Theory of the Case: Grow A Candidate & Operative Pipeline

5. NAACP By The Numbers: • 2.4 Million members, activist, and advocates who we can mobilize both online and offline. • 2,600 Units that house our most dedicated volunteers. • 1,200 Youth and College units for members under the age of 25. • 50States where we have a field presence. • 400k Followers on Twitter. • 500k Followers on Facebook. • 110Year old membership based advocacy organization.

6. Our Civic Engagement Mission 1. PRODUCE WINNING OFFENSIVE AGENDA: Move from legislative and electoral defense to offense that produces key wins (Data driven program). 2. OPTIMIZE INCREASED CAPACITY OVER TIME: Use what we build cycle to cycle to win legislative breakthroughs and grow political power. 3. CREATE SUSTAINABLE MAJORITY: Develop long term structural and strategic advantages to sustain wins.

7. CIVIC ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM RESEARCH & CONTINUED METHODS

8. CONTINUE – Dual Data Driven Program Program Structure and Implementation • Paid Program • Treatment methods: • Canvass (doors) • Sites, events • Digital • Phones • SMS GOTV & VR Treatment: Voter Registration GSSA Data: Goals, Geographies, Targets & NAACP: Membership, Infrastructure, Treatment Fundraising Treatment: Engagement (activist base) Messaging Research: Messages and Messengers NAACP Leadership: organizes and coordinates PARITY IN VOTER REGISTRATION AND TURNOUT • Volunteer Program • Treatment methods / Relational organizing: • Canvass (doors) • Sites, events • Digital • Phone banking • SMS Treatment: GOTV GOTV & VR • Social Networks • NAACP Membership • Churches • Pan-Hellenic Orgs • Neighbors • Family, Friends • Social Media Treatment: GOTV

9. NAACP/GSSA: 2018 DEMONSTRATION PROJECT CONTINUE – Original Research SECONDARY RESEARCH Research Vehicles • Polling Consortium • Community Database Project • Data and Analytics Hub (Kellogg) PRIMARY RESEARCH Phase I Polling Topics • Vote likelihood • Turnout persuasion messages • Turnout slogans • Messengers • Institutions • Individuals • Demographics • Information sources Phase II Polling Topics • Motivating Factors to Vote • Persuasion messages that worked • Key Messengers/Influencers • Institutions • Individuals • Demographics • Information Sources

10. CONTINUE - GIS Mapping We are able to produce a range of maps and show locations to critical races and other civic engagement goals.

11. CONTINUE – Social Pressure Communications • Mail • Radio • Digital • Social Media • SMS (Text Messaging) • Infrequent Voters • State Targets • Research Driven

12. CONTINUE – Member Materials • VISIBILITY MATERIALS • T-Shirts • Hats • Church Fans • Stickers • Buttons • Pledge Cards • Door Hangers

13. CONTINUE – Strategic Partnerships • PARTNERSHIP PRINCIPLES • Members are the core of our power. • Collective power is transformational power. • Long-term investments are essential. • Resource optimization is ideal. • Transformative relationships are key. • Strengthening Core Capacities. • Moving a shared agenda is required. • OUR PARTNERS • Unidos US (NCLR) • Advancement Project • Urban League (NUL) • APIAHF (Additional Allied AAPI Organizations) • National Congress of American Indians • Faith In Action (PICO) • The Links Incorporated • African Methodist Episcopal Church • African Methodist Episcopal Zion Church • National Baptist Convention • Church of God in Christ • Christian Methodist Episcopal Church • The Shriners • National Action Network • National Coalition on Black Civic Participation • Black Women’s Roundtable • National Pan Hellenic Council

14. CIVIC ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM APPROACHES

15. CIVIC ENGAGEMENT (DIRECT VOTER CONTACT): • Direct Voter Contact • Information Dissemination • Data Collection • Persuasion • Ask (Act, Join, Give)

16. CIVIC ENGAGEMENT (DIRECT VOTER CONTACT): • Door Canvass • Street/Event Canvass • Tabling • Email • Social Media • Text Message (SMS) • Phone Bank • Mail

17. CIVIC ENGAGEMENT (DIRECT VOTER CONTACT): • Door Canvass • Street/Event Canvass • Tabling • Email • Social Media • Text Message (SMS) • Radio • Digital • Phone Bank • Mail

18. DEMOCRACY ADVOCACY WORK • Voter Protection/Voting Rights • Census • Redistricting • National Democracy Project • State Democracy Project • Democracy Initiative

19. RELATIONAL ORGANIZING WHAT IS RELATIONAL ORGANIZING? • Volunteers use their own pre-existing relationships with friends, family, and neighbors to effect desired outcomes • EXAMPLE: Instead of a campaign operative, a friend of a low-propensity voter calls to encourage the target to vote WHY DOES IT WORK? • Trusted messenger • Higher-quality, personal interaction • More contact opportunities, higher contact rates • Flexible messaging

20. RELATIONAL ORGANIZING IS IT EFFECTIVE? • Experimental research showed that relational organizing led to the largest mobilization effects in 2016 relative to other mobilization strategies (see For Our Future, Battleground Texas, and PICO experimental results). The problem has been growing to scale. NAACP MEMBERS AS IN-NETWORK MESSENGERS • Other organizations have found it challenging to design large-scale relational programs, but the NAACP is uniquely positioned to leverage the breadth and enthusiasm of its members • RECOMMENDATION: Pilot a simple relational organizing program in 2019 in targeted geographies and measure its impact on turnout • What’s the alternative to this recommended approach? Arguably, an ad hoc effort with limited success

21. NAACP/GSSA: Civic Engagement Campaign 2019 Black Voter Registration and Mobilization Analysis CONFIDENTIAL AND NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

22. METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY: IDENTIFYING NAACP TARGETS (1 of 3) The Phase I analysis of the five 2019 priority states, and fifty 2020 states, is comprised of a series of metrics, including non-black and black population and registration estimates, historical election results, and modeled probabilities of past, current and projected Democratic performance levels. These metrics are calculated for all states, congressional districts, state senate and state house districts, counties and county-equivalents. Several of these metrics are analyzed in tandem to identify which races and geographies are projected to be competitive in the 2019 and 2020 elections: • CURRENT REGISTRANTS' VCI AVERAGE >= 45% • 2015/2016/2017/2018 VOTERS' VCI AVERAGE >= 45% (2015 and 2017 are not used for the 2020 analysis) • HISTORICAL 2-WAY RESULT >= 45% • CURRENTLY OR RECENTLY HELD BY A DEMOCRAT If a race or geography meets any one of these criteria, it must also then meet the following screening criteria to be classified as competitive: • AT LEAST 1 COMPETITIVENESS METRIC < 55% A race or geography classified as competitive has the potential to be a competitive contest in the 2019 or 2020 elections and can then also be classified as a NAACP target, if it meets additional criteria that indicate increases in black registration and/or turnout can have a significant impact on the election outcome in that race or geography.

23. METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY: IDENTIFYING NAACP TARGETS(2 of 3) To be classified as a target, a race or geography must be classified as competitive, and the projected 2-way election result of that race or geography must be increased by at least .5% (or .3% for 2020) in at least one of three categories: • VOTER REGISTRATION • VOTER TURNOUT • COMBINED VOTER REGISTRATION AND TURNOUT A targeted race or geography is assigned a target ranking for any of the three categories for which the increase in competitiveness is equal to or exceeds .5%. For all races and geographies in the Phase I analysis, the default increase in black registration and turnout is set to 5%, an ambitious yet realistic goal for many races in the near-term and other races over a longer time horizon. The rankings are classified by the following increases in competitiveness: • TIER 1: >=1% increase in competitiveness • TIER 2: .75% to 1% increase in competitiveness • TIER 3: .5% to .75% increase in competitiveness A TIER 1 ranking is the highest priority ranking. The rankings are determined by a series of data-driven, quantitative steps and additional qualitative, race-specific, and contextual research is encouraged for all targets.

24. METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY: IDENTIFYING NAACP TARGETS(3 of 3) There are two types of county targets: • COUNTY TARGETS: These are competitive counties where increases in black registration and/or turnout can have a significant impact on county-level elections, such as county sheriff and judicial races. • PRIORITY COUNTIES FOR STATEWIDE VOTER REGISTRATION AND TURNOUT: These are counties where increases in black registration and/or turnout can have a significant impact on competitive statewide races, such as the governor’s races in Mississippi and Louisiana. Multi-member districts: Metrics for multi-member districts (in New Jersey’s legislative districts, for example) incorporate all data for all seats in a given district. For example, the projections in multi-member districts are calculated using the average number of votes for D candidates divided by the average number of votes for D candidates plus the average number of votes for R candidates (not the total number of votes).

25. ANALYSIS: 2019 STATES STATE-LEVEL TARGETS: DATA DICTIONARY The following data elements are included for statewide, state senate, state house, and county targets: • DISTRICT or COUNTY: Identifies a race or geography. • HELD BY: Identifies if the seat is currently held by a Democrat or Republican. Counties are excluded. For statewide rows, it includes the governor’s race and legislative chambers. Louisiana is purple and labeled as “Mixed,” for example, because it has a Democratic governor and a Republican-controlled legislature. • PROJECTED 2-WAY RESULT W/OUT REG & TURNOUT INCREASES: Shows the projected 2-way result, if there are no increases in black registration or turnout. • PROJECTED 2-WAY RESULT W/ REG & TURNOUT INCREASES:: Shows the projected 2-way result, including the combined impact of 5% increases in both black registration and turnout. • REGISTRATION TARGET CLASSIFICATION: Indicates the priority level for voter registration. A blank cell means the race or geography does meet the minimum threshold for classification as a target. • TURNOUT TARGET CLASSIFICATION: Indicates the priority level for turnout. A blank cell means the race or geography does meet the minimum threshold for classification as a target. • COMBINED REG AND TURNOUT CLASSIFICATION: Indicates the impact of increases in both registration and turnout, and the priority level of the race or geography. A blank cell means the race or geography does meet the minimum threshold for classification as a target. Only included in PRIORITY COUNTIES FOR STATEWIDE VOTER REGISTRATION AND TURNOUT tables: • PROJECTED INCREASE IN NEW REGISTRANTS: Estimates of the number of new black registrants from a 5% increase in voter registration. • PROJECTED INCREASE IN NEW VOTERS (TURNOUT): Estimates of the number of new black voters from a 5% increase in voter turnout.

26. ANALYSIS: VIRGINIA VIRGINIA

27. ANALYSIS: VIRGINIA VIRGINIA: STATE SENATE TARGETS

28. ANALYSIS: VIRGINIA VIRGINIA: STATE HOUSE TARGETS

29. ANALYSIS: VIRGINIA VIRGINIA: STATE HOUSE TARGETS cont’d

30. ANALYSIS: VIRGINIA VIRGINIA: COUNTY TARGETS

31. ANALYSIS: VIRGINIA VIRGINIA: COUNTY TARGETS cont’d

32. ANALYSIS: VIRGINIA VIRGINIA: PRIORITY COUNTIES FOR STATEWIDE VOTER REGISTRATION AND TURNOUT

33. ANALYSIS: VIRGINIA VIRGINIA: SUMMARY NOTES • State Senate (21R, 19D): The state senate can be flipped by Democrats in 2019 and increases in black turnout and registration (SD6 and SD1, in particular) could have a significant impact on competitive races and help Democrats re-gain majority control of the chamber. The Democrats must protect as many as 7 seats, with 2 of those seats (SD21, SD6) projected to be especially competitive. 10 Republican-held seats have been identified as targets and several of them are projected to be close races (SD10 and SD7, followed by SD13 and SD17) where increases in black turnout will be critical. • State House (51R, 49D): Like the state senate, the Democrats need to flip just 1 seat to achieve a tie in the state house and just 2 seats to gain a majority, but unlike the state senate the Democrats must also protect several seats with conservative projections (HD72, HD73, HD10, HD85, HD 51, HD68, HD50, HD13, HD31, HD42, HD67, HD21 and HD32). Democratic performance in the best pick-up opportunities (HD100 and HD94) can be significantly increased by increases in both black registration and turnout. • County and county-equivalent: Increases in black turnout and/or registration could have a significant impact on races in 45 counties and county-equivalents, and 11 counties should be prioritized for statewide registration and/or turnout efforts. There are no statewide races in 2019 but increasing engagement and mobilization statewide will be important for 2020.

34. ANALYSIS: ADDITIONAL STATES 2019 PRIORITY STATES

35. ANALYSIS: 2019 STATES 2019 SUMMARY *Counties classified as competitive.

36. Contact Us • Jamal R. Watkins • jwatkins@naacpnet.org • Sheila E. Isong • sisong@naacpnet.org • Dominik Whitehead • dwhitehead@naacpnet.org