A New Approach to Regional Transportation Plan Development and Analysis: Transportation 2040

1. 2010 DESTINATION 2030 Update A New Approach to Regional Transportation Plan Development and Analysis Transportation Research Board May, 2009 Jeff Frkonja, Matthew Kitchen, Mike Cummings, Maren Outwater, Larry Blain, Mark Simonson, Chris Johnson

2. Overview • Context: Regional Transporation Plan Update (new name: Transportation 2040) • Analytic Toolkit (Focusing on New Features) • Land Use Forecast Model • Travel Demand Forecast Model • Emissions Model • Benefit-cost Analysis (BCA) Tool • Evaluation Criteria • Planning & Analysis Application • Process • Analytic Results • Status

3. Destination 2030 becomes Transportation 2040 “Umbrella” Regional economic, land use, and transporation vision plan adopted under GMA: VISION 2040 Transportation Plan Update Scoping High Points: FundingShould user fees/tolls, potentially including a vehicle miles traveled charge, be a major source of future revenues to fund transportation investments? If so, how should they be applied, and how and where should revenues be spent? EnvironmentHow important are these issues in developing the (GHG/VMT)plan? Congestion How should the plan approach congestion & mobilityissues?

4. Transportation 2040 Alternatives Analysis • Analytic Tools

5. Analytic Process Tasks • Evaluation Criteria Design • Alternatives Construction • Pricing Concepts • Subject Areas: Literature, Sketch Planning • Action Strategies • Alternatives Modeling • Regional Economic Forecast • Travel Demand Forecast • Land Use Forecast • Emissions • Alternatives Evaluation (applying the criteria) • BCA accounting • policy review • Environmental Review • Synthesizing Preferred Alternative • sensitivity tests

6. Analytic Tool Suite Integrated models simulating persons, vehicles, and land use at a parcel level PSEF Geodatabase Regional Economic Forecasts Transport System UrbanSim Land Use Forecasts Travel Forecasts Activity-based EPA MOVES BCA Air Quality Analysis Benefit-Cost Analysis 6

7. Land Use Forecasting: Urbansim Key feature: integrates market behavior and public policy to forecast land use. Services Governments Transportation Land Housing Developers Floorspace Labor Households Business Flow of consumption from supplier to consumer. Regulation or pricing. 7

8. Travel Demand Forecast Model Home-based work • Hybrid Activity/4 step model: • Workplace Location Choice (in Urbansim) • Activity Generator: creates tours (rest of model uses trip-level data from the tours) • Trip distribution: non-work trip O’s and D’s • Mode Choice • Assignment • Key feature: • Trip generation can vary across alternatives Work Home Non-home-based 1 Home-based work 3 Non-home-based 1 Home-based other Home-based other Gas Station Other Model Components See 5 Trips Daycare Center Non-home-based Non-home-based Grocery Store Activity Generator creates one tour

9. Urbansim-Travel Model Integration • Key features: • Land use responds to transportation system change • Transportation system responds to land use change Start End * LU model runs every year Travel Demand Model TAZ-to-TAZ utilities (logsums) Land Use Model Pop. and Emp. by TAZ

10. Emissions Forecasts EPA MOVES EMISSIONS FACTORS Alternatives Travel Demand Forecast VMT by vehicle class and speed bin BCA • EMISSIONS • EMISSIONS COSTS Key feature: GHG (and other) emissions factors by speed bin

11. Benefit-Cost Analysis Travel Demand Forecast Model Benefit/Cost Accounting

12. BCA Key Feature: Consumer Surplus Accounting

13. Producing Metrics for Evaluation Criteria Criteria Transportation Growth Management Environment Quality of Life Equity Finance Economic Prosperity Metrics Land Use and Demographics Economic Development Vehicle Emissions Impervious Surfaces Open Space Health Safety Security Geographic Socio-Demographic Freight Travel Time Benefits Reliability Benefits Operating Costs Maintenance Costs Capital Cost Travel Model URBANSIM MOVES Benefit Cost Analysis Model 13

14. Evaluation Criteria • Mobility (M) • Travel Time Savings • Reliability Benefits • Vehicle Operating Cost Savings • Other User Costs • Finance (F) • Facility Operating Costs • Capital Costs • Operating Revenues • Influence of Finance on the Economy • Growth Management (GM) • Population in Regional Geographies • Employment in Regional Geographies • Jobs and Housing Balance in Counties • Population and Jobs in Regional Growth Centers and Jobs in MICs • Economic Prosperity (EP) • Accessibility to High-Wage and Living Wage Employment • Accessibility to Cluster Employment (15 clusters) • Accessibility to Freight Generators • Environmental Stewardship (ES) • Vehicle Emission Cost Savings • Runoff From Impervious Surfaces • Ability to Retain Open Space • Quality of Life (QL) • Accident Cost Savings • Non-Motorized Travel • Redundancy • Equity (E) • Geographic Equity • Income Equity • Distribution of Benefits to Passenger and Freight Users • Special Needs and EJ Populations

15. Transportation 2040 Alternatives Analysis • Applying Tools to the Planning Process

16. Overview: Analysis and Alternatives Construction VISION 2040: Regional Growth Strategy, Multicounty Planning Policies, Environmental Objectives Literature and Empirical Data Gathering across Modes and Potential Actions Take in Project & Program “Concepts” (Including Those in Existing Plan) Design Criteria Test Tolling Concept as Preliminary for Alternative Design Design Action Strategies across all Modes Step 1: Model Tolling Concepts Step 2: Model Alternatives Step 3: Produce Criteria Results (BCA, other quantitative, and policy) Alternatives Evaluation Report Analysis Tool Enhancements

17. Summary of Alternatives Strategies • Baseline • Uses adopted revenue sources to substantially fund committed projects • Starting point for comparing other alternatives • Alternative 1 • Designed to make our existing transportation system more efficient with traditional funding sources • Includes High Occupancy Toll lanes network on most of the highway system • Alternative 2 • Adds substantial roadway and transit capacity and 2 HOTlanes on much of the freeway system • Closest to our current plan and funded with traditional funding sources • Alternative 3 • Uses tolls to pay for a major portion of the most critical roadway improvements • Traditional funding would support new transit, and a better connected bicycle and pedestrian network • Alternative 4 • Uses tolls from the highway users to manage the roadway system and to fund a broad array of programs • Improves the system including roadway choke points, transit and non-motorized travel options • Alternative 5 • Largest expansion of high capacity transit, bus service, and dedicated bicycle and pedestrian facilities • Investments would be funded and roadway efficiency improved through tolling freeways and arterials • Uses all the traditional strategies from the other alternatives plus tolling to reduce carbon emissions

18. Evaluation Report Overview • VISION 2040 Policy Framework Environment Economy Development patterns Transportation • Transportation Objectives and Measures Improve mobility Protect environment Efficient land use Promote quality of life Promote prosperity Distribute costs and benefits • Evaluation Criteria Seven categories, 25 measures

19. Evaluation Report Findings: Emissions • Does reducing congestion reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Speed and the amount of travel are the key components for the amount of emissions produced – improving the flow of traffic* and reducing vehicle miles will reduce emissions. * Each pollutant has a specific “speed curve” – the optimal speed for reducing emissions is around 45-50mph

20. Evaluation Report Findings: Emissions

21. Mobility Benefits

22. Subarea Subarea Per Trip Benefits

23. Evaluation Report Findings: Funding Alt 1: One-lane HOT Alt 2: Two-lane HOT Alt 3: Freeway Tolling (fund projecs) Alt 4: Freeway Tolling (system management) Alt 5: Full System Tolling

24. Evaluation Criteria Summary

25. Benefit Cost Results

26. Questions?

27. Reserve Slides

28. Evaluation Report Findings: Congestion & Mobility

29. UrbanSim Model Structure

30. Transportation and Growth Strategy Transportation Concepts & Strategies Screening Alternatives Analysis • Travel Demand Model • UrbanSim • MOVES • Benefit Cost Analysis • Criteria • V2040 RGS • V2040 MPP Analysis • Regional Economic Strategy • Environmental Review • Public Comment V2040 Regional Growth Strategy Pricing Alt. 1 • Growth Distribution Consistent TDM Alt. 2 Multi-County Planning Policies • Policy Analysis System Management. Alt. 3 Inconsistent Impacts Strategic CapacityInvestment • EIS Impacts Alt. 4 Alt. 5 Preferred Alternative DRAFT PLAN 30

31. Overview: Turning Alternatives Into a Plan VISION 2040: RGS, MPP’s, Impacts Schedule TBD Criteria Prioritization Framework • Draft Transportation Plan Document: • Prioritized Projects & Programs • Financial Strategy • MTS definition • Planning Guidance • Other Elements Gather current plans & CIP investment info Prioritize Proposed Investments Transportation System Design based on Investment “Concepts” (from Preferred Alternative) Other Plan Elements

32. General Plan Update Schedule 2007 2008 2009 2010 1. Background 2. Tool Development: 3. Scoping A 4. Criteria 5. Alternatives Development B 6. Analysis 7. Recommendation C 8. Approval Public Involvement and Environmental Analysis Concurrence Points