Assessment Strategies and Decision Making Tools

1. Assessment Strategies and Decision Making Tools Draft Report 4´2002 Martin Wirts Kooperationsstelle Hamburg

2. Enterprise Policy Guidance Substance Lists - Substance ID - Substance Inventory - Collect / Assess Classification - Hazard Analysis Intrinsic Data - Measurements or Limit & Thresholds - Exposure Analysis practical assessments - Risk analysis and Risk Assessment - Binding Rules communication Risk Reduction Measure - Various Techn. / Various Instruments & Measurements - Org. Measures Ass. Tools - Choice of Measure - Decision Tool--> Decision

3. Enterprise Policy Risk Assessment X Best Measure Decision

4. Screening Method: Quick Scan* *Dutch Strategy on Management of Substances, 2001

5. Assignment of „in principle“ measures Substance acceptable?* Consumer Applications Open prof. use Industrial use Site limited use very high concern No, unless No high concern Yes, provided No, unless concern Yes, provided No, unless low concern Yes Yes, provided No data: No, unless *Dutch Strategy on Management of Substances, 2001

6. Enterprise Policy Risk Assessment X Best Measure Decision

7. Guidance Manual for prof. Users of Chemicals* Substance Data I II III IV IVa MAK III A1, A2 R45, R46, R49, R60, R61, R64 MAK III B R40, R62&63 -- Example Category MCR R 48 Exposure Analysis Example Use pattern ”closed system” --> ”open to environment” Example Volume of Chemical > 0,01 > 1 > 10 > 100 HPV *Published by Umweltbundesamt (UBA), Germany

8. Guidance Manual for prof. Users of Chemicals* Risk Assessment I II III IV IVa 1. Biol. degradability 2. Abiotic degradability ..... 9. Substance volume 10. Pattern of disposal Substance Profile *Published by Umweltbundesamt (UBA), Germany

9. Enterprise Policy Risk Assessment Best Measure Decision X X

10. Decision Matrix for Multi-Criteria problems Disaggregative Aggregative Criteria A Criteria B Criteria C ...... x1 y1 z1 Alternative 1 ...... K1 ...... x2 y2 z2 Alternative 2 K2 Alternative 3 x3 y3 z3 ...... K3 Alternative 4 x4 y4 z4 ...... K4 ..... ..... ..... .....

11. Dominated ? Dominated ? Dominated ? A number of non-dominated alternatives remain Concept of Dominance Analysis ...... Criteria A Criteria B ...... x1 y1 Alternative 1 ...... x2 y2 Alternative 2 ...... Alternative 3 x3 y3 ...... Alternative 4 x4 y4 ..... ..... ..... .....

12. Rank criteria in order of importance Select most important criteria Criteria C z1 z2 z3 ..... Decide on basis of most important criteria Concept of Positional Analysis Criteria A Criteria B Criteria C ...... x1 y1 z1 ...... Alternative 1 ...... x2 y2 z2 Alternative 2 ...... Alternative 3 x3 y3 z3 ..... ..... ..... .....

13. Establish cut-off values for each criterion Start with most important criterion 2 3 1  co?  co?  co? ..... Remaining alternatives fulfil most important cut-off values Concept of Elimination by Aspects (EbA) Eliminate alternatives not meeting cut-off values (co) Criteria A Criteria B Criteria C ...... x1 y1 z1 ...... Alternative 1 ...... x2 y2 z2 Alternative 2 ...... x3 Alternative 3 y3 z3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....

14. Material price Public Health Alt. 1 Alt. 1 Investments Risk of death Alt. 2 Alt. 2 Research Environment ..... ..... Occ. Health Staff training .. .. Risk (descriptive) Benefit (monetary) Alt. 1 Alt. 2 Risk (descriptive) Benefit (monetary) ... ..... ..... ..... Concept of Risk Benefit Analysis Risk Costs

15. Concept for applying decision aid methods* Collect data and use a procedure with no preference or criteria level information (qualitative, no k.o. criteria); • If this procedure does not lead to a consistent decision, • use procedure quantitative in each criteria but disaggregative; • If this procedure does not lead to a consistent decision, • use procedure with i.e. ranking of criteria in order of importance; Complexity and time consumption • If this procedure does not lead to a consistent decision, • use aggregative method • * from TemaNord 1997:622, Nordic Council of Ministers

16. Enterprise Policy Risk Assessment Best Measure Decision X

17. Enterprise A Enterprise B

18. !!Decision Aiding!! 7 Steps in Decision Making* 1 Formulate the problem 2 • Identify Alternatives 3 • Identify Impacts 4 • Identify Criteria 5 • Evaluate Criteria outcomes for each alternative • Compare alternatives 6 • Present Results - Decide 7 • * from TemaNord 1997:622, Nordic Council of Ministers

19. Key Questions for Assessment Tools Which criteria do we have to consider? • Which are the most relevant ones? • How do we agregate them? • What are the individual views of different stakeholders in the field?