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Parametric Estimation for rel iable IT Project Estimates

Parametric Estimation for rel iable IT Project Estimates. Frank Vogelezang Manager Pricing Office – Ordina MPC Member – COSMIC . Introduction Frank Vogelezang. 17. 120 km new railway. Extending the support for the method by by targeted guidelines and improved documentation.

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Parametric Estimation for rel iable IT Project Estimates

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  1. ParametricEstimationforreliableIT Project Estimates Frank Vogelezang Manager Pricing Office – Ordina MPC Member – COSMIC

  2. IntroductionFrank Vogelezang 17 • 120 km newrailway • Extending the supportfor the methodbybytargetedguidelines and improveddocumentation • Pricing Office • Setting commercial priceforour service offerings • Challenginginternalestimateswithparametrics

  3. AgendaParametricEstimationforreliableIT Project Estimates 17 • Estimating Getting a grip on IT cost and schedule • FunctionalSize Translatingrequirements to manageablenumbers • The power of parametrics Building on proven reference dataforcost and scheduleestimationfrominternalorexternalsources

  4. Estimating Getting a grip on IT cost and schedule

  5. Estimating IT projectsTwo essential routes 17 Parametrics Objective Size Effort Schedule & Cost The Expert

  6. Definition of an estimateGetting grip on IT cost and schedule 17 Anestimate is • ananalytical and unbiasedprediction • of how long ittakes • and whatitwillcost The bias comes from the interplaywith targets, commitments and plans

  7. Viable estimation = Reliable estimatesGetting grip on IT cost and schedule 17 Analytical • Canyouverify in somewaywhatyour experts tellyou? Unbiased • Will an expert give the sameanswertwice? Prediction • 100% certaintycoststoomuch time and resources!

  8. 2.7M FunctionalSize Translatingrequirements to manageablenumbers

  9. Functional Size : Function Point AnalysisTranslating requirements to manageable numbers 17 • FPA stands forFunctionPointAnalysis • What the software shouldbeable to do (functionality)Functionexpressed in a numberPointbasedonanobjectivelydescribedmethodAnalysis • Somethingintangiblelikefunctionalitybecomes a physicalnumberthatcanbeusedforcalculations • Five ISO/IEC standards: COSMIC, FiSMA, IFPUG, Mk II & NESMA

  10. COSMIC Function Point Analysis : ISO/IEC 19761Translating requirements to manageable numbers 17 Exit (X) Entry (E) Write (W) Read (R)

  11. The power of parametrics Building on proven reference data

  12. Parametric reality checkBuilding on proven reference data Paul Masson’s Law Parkinson’s Law Effort / Cost Brooks’ Law Schedule 17 Realistic Minimal time Productivity Optimal effort

  13. How much certainty do you needBuilding on proven reference data 17 0% € 750.000 50% € 1.000.000 75% € 1.250.000 90% € 1.900.000 Probability 75% forfixedpriceprojects 90% forsafetycriticalsystems Schedule / Cost 50/50 medianresult, for a balanced portfolio First likelyoption, overlyoptimistic

  14. Keep track of the actual projectWherewillit end? Time Variance Budget Variance Cost Variance Schedule Variance 17 Actualcost Earnedvalue

  15. Forecast of the outcomewithparametricsBuilding on proven reference data forcost and scheduleestimation Cost Overrun Schedule Slippage 17 Actualcost Earnedvalue Total cost (forecast) Total value (planned)

  16. The power of parametricsViableestimates and cost-effectiveprojects 17 • Estimate & Plan • Create a baseline parametricestimate • Develop a Project Plan • Monitor and Control • Document actuals • Createforecastbasedonparametrics • Re-estimate and establishnew baseline • Measure and Analyse • Establishvariancesfor the whole project • Determineparametric parameters • Incorporatethisknowledge in futureestimates and plans Estimate & Plan Baseline Monitor & Control Actuals Experience & Knowledge Measure & Analyse Baseline(s) vs FinalActuals

  17. www.cosmicon.com ThePriceofIT.blogspot.com @FrankVogelezang FrankVogelezang frank.vogelezang@ordina.nl www.linkedin.com/in/frankvogelezang 17

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