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Smuggler Interdiction Model Based On Yosemite

Smuggler Interdiction Model Based On Yosemite. Major Ed Masotti. Movement. N. The Model. Dual st. Assumptions. Road Blocks Require S ustained logistical support Are ineffective around smuggler’s Haven Add a delay Patrols Can patrol along all arcs Will capture the smuggler.

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Smuggler Interdiction Model Based On Yosemite

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  1. Smuggler Interdiction Model Based On Yosemite Major Ed Masotti

  2. Movement N

  3. The Model • Dual • st

  4. Assumptions • Road Blocks • Require Sustained logistical support • Are ineffective around smuggler’s Haven • Add a delay • Patrols • Can patrol along all arcs • Will capture the smuggler

  5. Movement N Smuggler Haven Coalition Friendly

  6. Nodes N1 NE1 N CP1 CP3 CP2 N2 CP4 NE2 N3 W1 CP5 N4 NE3 E1 W6 Smuggler’s Haven E2 W2 Coalition Friendly W5 CP6 S5 CP7 E3 S4 W3 S2 S1 S3 CP9 CP8 W4

  7. Nodes and Edges N1 NE1 N CP1 CP3 CP2 N2 CP4 NE2 N3 W1 CP5 N4 NE3 E1 W6 C1 E2 W2 W5 C2 CP6 S5 CP7 E3 S4 W3 S2 S1 S3 CP9 CP8 W4 W4

  8. Full Model N1 11K 38K 12K NE1 N CP1 16K 9K 9.5K CP3 CP2 N2 12K 11.5K CP4 6K NE2 N3 19K 13.5K 18K 5.5K 19K W1 CP5 19K 20K N4 4K 15K 19K 9K 16.5K NE3 E1 W6 5.5K 10.5K 26K 10K 10K C1 E2 11K 8K W2 24K 11K 13K 9K W5 C2 CP6 14K 10K S5 5.5K 12K CP7 8.5K E3 S4 12K W3 16.5K 13K 9K 19K 19K 10K 10K 13K S2 S1 6K S3 CP9 7.5K CP8 10K 5K W4 W4

  9. Full Model N1 11K 38K 12K NE1 N CP1 16K 9K 9.5K CP3 CP2 N2 12K 11.5K CP4 6K NE2 N3 19K 13.5K 18K 5.5K 19K W1 CP5 19K 20K N4 4K 15K 19K 9K 16.5K NE3 E1 W6 5.5K 10.5K 26K 10K 10K C1 E2 11K 8K W2 24K 11K 13K 9K W5 C2 CP6 14K 10K S5 5.5K 12K CP7 8.5K E3 S4 12K W3 16.5K 13K 9K 19K 19K 10K 10K 13K S2 S1 6K S3 CP9 7.5K CP8 10K 5K W4 W4

  10. Full Model N1 11K 38K 12K NE1 CP1 16K 9K 9.5K CP3 CP2 N2 12K 11.5K CP4 6K NE2 N3 19K 13.5K 18K 5.5K 19K W1 CP5 19K 20K N4 4K 15K 19K 9K 16.5K NE3 E1 W6 5.5K 10.5K 26K 10K 10K C1 E2 11K 8K W2 24K 11K 13K 9K W5 C2 CP6 14K 10K S5 5.5K 12K CP7 8.5K E3 S4 12K W3 16.5K 13K 9K 19K 19K 10K 10K 13K S2 S1 6K S3 CP9 7.5K CP8 10K 5K W4 W4

  11. Arc Modeling N NE2 19K E1

  12. Patrol Edges N1 NE1 N CP1 CP3 CP2 N2 CP4 NE2 N3 W1 CP5 N4 NE3 E1 W6 C1 E2 W2 W5 C2 CP6 S5 CP7 E3 S4 W3 S2 S1 S3 CP9 CP8 W4 W4

  13. Road Block Edges N1 NE1 N CP1 CP3 CP2 N2 CP4 NE2 N3 W1 CP5 N4 NE3 E1 W6 C1 E2 W2 W5 C2 CP6 S5 CP7 E3 S4 W3 S2 S1 S3 CP9 CP8 W4 W4

  14. Initial Path N1 NE1 N CP1 CP3 CP2 N2 CP4 NE2 N3 W1 CP5 N4 NE3 E1 W6 C1 E2 W2 W5 C2 CP6 S5 CP7 E3 S4 W3 S2 S1 S3 CP9 CP8 W4 W4

  15. Road Blocks Only • Why the jump between 7 and 8 roadblocks? • After 8 POE steadily declines • Network is saturated at 21 • Can not Completely stop smuggler

  16. 7 Road Blocks N1 NE1 N CP1 CP3 CP2 N2 CP4 NE2 N3 W1 CP5 N4 NE3 E1 W6 C1 E2 W2 W5 C2 CP6 S5 CP7 E3 S4 W3 S2 S1 S3 CP9 CP8 W4 W4

  17. 8 Road Blocks N1 NE1 N CP1 CP3 CP2 N2 CP4 NE2 N3 W1 CP5 N4 NE3 E1 W6 C1 E2 W2 W5 C2 CP6 S5 CP7 E3 S4 W3 S2 S1 S3 CP9 CP8 W4 W4

  18. Patrols Only • Steady Decline until between 5 and 6. • Network is saturated at 6 • Can Completely stop smuggler

  19. 5 Patrols N1 NE1 N CP1 CP3 CP2 N2 CP4 NE2 N3 W1 CP5 N4 NE3 E1 W6 C1 E2 W2 W5 C2 CP6 S5 CP7 E3 S4 W3 S2 S1 S3 CP9 CP8 W4 W4

  20. 6 Patrols N1 NE1 N CP1 CP3 CP2 N2 CP4 NE2 N3 W1 CP5 N4 NE3 E1 W6 C1 E2 W2 W5 C2 CP6 S5 CP7 E3 S4 W3 S2 S1 S3 CP9 CP8 W4 W4

  21. Road Blocks and Patrols • Combinations effective but specific • Network is saturated at 6 patrols • Can Completely stop smuggler

  22. Bad Weather Model N1 NE1 N CP1 CP3 CP2 N2 CP4 NE2 N3 W1 CP5 N4 NE3 E1 W6 C1 E2 W2 W5 C2 CP6 S5 CP7 E3 S4 W3 S2 S1 S3 CP9 CP8 W4 W4

  23. Bad Weather • Bad Weather favors Coalition • Only Need I Patrol

  24. No Patrols or Road Blocks N1 NE1 N CP1 CP3 CP2 N2 CP4 NE2 N3 W1 CP5 N4 NE3 E1 W6 C1 E2 W2 W5 C2 CP6 S5 CP7 E3 S4 W3 S2 S1 S3 CP9 CP8 W4 W4

  25. 1 Patrol N1 NE1 N CP1 CP3 CP2 N2 CP4 NE2 N3 W1 CP5 N4 NE3 E1 W6 C1 E2 W2 W5 C2 CP6 S5 CP7 E3 S4 W3 S2 S1 S3 CP9 CP8 W4 W4

  26. Conclusions • If you have the ability to maximize patrols do so. • Best case is 6 patrols • Otherwise use this as a tool to determine tradeoff versus cost of each type of asset. • A useful tool for commander’s • Versatile Model • adaptable to many regions of the world. • Can expand to include multiple assets. • Can easily accommodate a larger network.

  27. With More Time • Analysis of Varying delay based trafficability • Weighting locations that the smuggler would tend towards or avoid • Differences by season • Expansion of different types of assets

  28. QUESTIONS?

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