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Economic Indicators Quarterly Analysis - Riksbank Forecasts and Uncertainty Bands

Explore Riksbank's quarterly forecasts for GDP, inflation, interest rates, employment, and more with uncertainty bands. Stay informed on key economic trends.

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Economic Indicators Quarterly Analysis - Riksbank Forecasts and Uncertainty Bands

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  1. MPR February100210

  2. Figure 1.1. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Note. The uncertainty band does not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate. The uncertainty band shows the band within which the repo rate is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Source: The Riksbank

  3. Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Note.The uncertainty band shows the band within which GDP growth is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  4. Figure 1.3. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  5. Figure 1.4. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  6. Figure 1.5. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED spread)Basis points Note. The spread is calculated as difference between the three-month interbank rate and the three-month treasury bill. Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

  7. Figure 1.6. GDP-growth abroadAnnual percentage change Sources: IMF and the Riksbank Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  8. Figure 1.7. World Trade Monitor IndexIndex, 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

  9. Figure 1.8. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices. Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

  10. Figure 1.9. Commodity pricesIndex 2000 = 100, USD Source: The Economist

  11. Figure 1.10. Development for GDP in different regions and countriesQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  12. Figure 1.11. Public sector net lendingPercentage of GDP Note. Striped bars represent forecasts. The forecast for Sweden is the Riksbank's forecast, while for other countries it is the OECD's forecast, December 2009. Sources: OECD and the Riksbank

  13. Figure 1.12. Comparison of recovery in Sweden, the euro area and USAGDP-level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100 Note. The quarter prior to the recession breaking out in the USA = 100. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.

  14. Figure 1.13. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100 Source: The Riksbank Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  15. Figure 1.14. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  16. Figure 1.15. Comparison of recovery following various recessions, GDP SwedenIndex in the quarter preceding the beginning of the recession = 100 Note. Legends denote the quarter in which the index = 100. Broken lines represent the Riksbanks forecast. X-axis relates to quarters. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  17. Figure 1.16. Households’ consumption, disposable incomes and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  18. Figure 1.17. Households' fixed terms for mortgagesPercentage of loan stock Note. Refers to original fixed term. Variable interest rate relates to loans with a fixed term of up to three months. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  19. Figure 1.18. Swedish exports and world market for Swedish exportsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Dots represent the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.

  20. Figure 1.19. Gross fixed capital formationQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Seasonally adjusted by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  21. Figure 1.20. GDP and employmentAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Pre-2001 employment data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  22. Figure 1.21. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 year. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  23. Figure 1.22. Employment rateEmployment as a percentage of the population, 16-64 year, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  24. Figure 1.23. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  25. Figure 1.24. Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Note. Trend calculated using a Hodrick- Prescott filter. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  26. Figure 1.25. Full utilisation of companies’ resources, private service industriesProportion of companies, per cent Source: NIER

  27. Figure 1.26. GDP's deviation from HP trend and Resource utilisation indicatorPer cent and standard deviations Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  28. Figure 1.27. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend Note. These gaps should not necessarily be interpreted as the Riksbank's overall assesment of resource utilisation. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  29. Figure 1.28. Nominal wages Annual percentage change Note. Refers to wages according to short-term salaries statistics from 1993 and according to wage and salary structure statistics previous to 1993. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  30. Figure 1.29. Unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, fixed prices and per cent of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  31. Figure 1.30. CPIAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  32. Figure 1.31. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  33. Figure 1.32. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  34. Figure 1.33. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Source: The Riksbank

  35. Figure 2.1. Hourly labour costAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  36. Figure 2.2. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  37. Figure 2.3. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  38. Figure 2.4. Labour market gap (hours worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  39. Figure 2.5. Hours worked and trendMillions of hours per quarter, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The last two observations for hours worked refer to the Riksbank's forecast.

  40. Figure 2.6. Hours workedQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  41. Figure 2.7. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  42. Figure 2.8. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  43. Figure 2.9. Exchange rate, TCWIndex, 18.11.1992 = 100 Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  44. Figure 2.10. Labour market gap (hours worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  45. Figure 2.11. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  46. Figure 2.12. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  47. Figure 2.13. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  48. Figure 2.14. Labour market gap (hours worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  49. Figure 2.15. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  50. Figure 3.1. Stock market movementsIndex, 4-1-1999 = 100 Source: Reuters EcoWin

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