Insights on Global Population Growth and Demographic Transitions

1. WHAT A PHYSICIST CAN SAY ABOUT GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH Sergey P. Kapitza Institute for Physical Problems Russian Academy of Science, Moscow

5. WORLD POPULATION FROM 2000 BC TO 3000 AD1 -- DATA OF BIRABEN, 2 -- BLOW-UP, 3 -- DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, 4 -- STABILIZED POPULATION, 5 --ANCIENT WORLD, 6--MIDDLE AGES,7--MODERNITY, 8--RECENT HISTORY

7. PASSAGE THROUGH THE POPULATION TRANSITION 1– FRANCE, 2 – GERMANY, 3 – RUSSIA, 4 – USA, 5 – MAURITIUS, 6 – SRI LANKA, 7 – COSTA RICA, 8 – WORLD

8. WORLD DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION ANNUAL GROWTH AVERAGED OVER A DECADE1 – DEVELOPED AND 2 – DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

9. GLOBAL POPULATION IS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM MANKIND IS A SINGLE SPECIES Homo sapiens SYSTEM IS COUPLED BY INTERACTIONS GROWTH IS STATISTICALLY DETERMINED AND DYNAMICALY SELF-SIMILAR, HENCE IT SCALES LIMITS OF SCALING ARE SET BY LIFE SPAN GROWTH IS PROPORTIONAL TO SQUARE OF GLOBAL POPULATION AND IS NON-LINEAR MAIN ASSUMPTIONS MADE IN MODELING

10. MAIN RESULTS OF MODELLING GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH BLOW-UP OF POPULATION GROWTH: GROWTH RATE: GROWTH BEFORE AND AFTER: CONSTANTS: POPULATION LIMIT: BEGINNING: PEOPLE WHO EVER LIVED: INSTANTANEUS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH:

11. GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT DESCRIBED THROUGHOUT ALL OF HUMAN EXISTENCE GROWTH IS CULMINATED BY DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION — A REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE GLOBAL POPULATION LIMIT AT 10 –12 BILLION PEOPLE, WHO LIVED ON EARTH 100 BILLION PERIODS OF PAST HISTORY AND PREHISTORY SEEN ON A CONTRACTING TIME SCALE INTERNAL FACTORS DETERMINE TRANSITION, AND NOT BY ENVIRONMENT OR RESOURCES PRINCIPAL RESULTS OF THEORY

12. POPULATION OF THE WORLD1750–2200 1 –PROJECTIONS BY IIASA AND UN, 2 – MODEL, o – 1995 3 – BLOW-UP, 4 – DIFFERENCE OF MODEL AND PROJECTIONSx5 times

13. POPULATION OF MANKIND FROM ORIGINS AND INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

14. Growth and development of mankind

15. AGE DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE DEVELPED AND DEVELOPING WORLD IN 1975 AND 2000

16. CHANGE IN AGE DISTRIBUTION FOR GLOBALPOPULATION1 – AGE GROUP YONGER THAN 14 YEARS, 2 – OLDER THAN 65 YEARS 3 – OLDER THAN 80, A – DEVELOPING, B – DEVELOPEDCOUNTRIES

17. Zero growth rate Stabilized population New age structure New time structure Ethnic changes Massive migrations ? Changes in mobility ? Predominance of old generations setting challenges for health and social security Further globalization Alternative of stagnation or new development ? Deindustrialization Transition to an information society Expansion of services: health,education,science Emergence of new priorities and values in consumption,environmnt CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMIC

18. RIGHT FROM THE BEGINNING, GROWTH OF MANKIND WAS DETERMINED BY GENERALIZED INFORMATIONAL FACTORS THAT MODERATED SOCIAL EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPNENT THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION TO A STABILIZED POPULATION IS DETERMINED BY THE LIMITS OF THE INFORMATION SOCIETY THE FUTURE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE «SOFTWARE» — CULTURE OF AN INFORMATION DOMINATED WORLD, RATHER THAN THE «HARDWARE» OF INDUSTRY, AS IN THE PAST PRINCIPLES OF META-ECONOMICS

19. DEINDUSTRIALIZATION: TOTAL U.S. WORK FORCE IN 20-th CENTURY

20. WHAT DRIVESDEVELOPMENT? ‘THE FAILURE TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE ROOTS OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOUR LIE IN THE REALM OF CONSCIOUSNESS AND CULTURE LEADS TO THE COMMON MISTAKE OF ATTRIBUTING MATERIAL CAUSES TO PHENOMENA THAT ARE ESSENTIALLY IDEAL IN NATURE.’ FRANCIS FUCUYAMA

21. IS THE DOMINANCE OF THE MARKET, WITH ITS SHORT RANGE TIME SCALE A REACTION TO D.T. CAN THE DILEMMA OF SELF-ORGANIZATION v.s. ORGANIZATION FIND ITS RESOLUTION CAN A DECREASE IN MILITANCE BE EXPECTED IN A WORLD WITH A STABILIZED POPULATION ? CAN IN THIS WORLD LONG RANGE SOCIAL ISSUES BE FACED BY GLOBAL GOVERNANCE, NOW CONSPICIOUSLY ABSENT ? WILL GLOBAL PROBLEMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE IN AN EMERGENT NEW WORLD ? ISSUES IN THE POST — TRANSITION WORLD