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Same-Sex Marriage: Using ESS to Predict Where It Will Be Legalized

Same-Sex Marriage: Using ESS to Predict Where It Will Be Legalized. Matt Dewey. Description.

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Same-Sex Marriage: Using ESS to Predict Where It Will Be Legalized

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  1. Same-Sex Marriage: Using ESS to Predict Where It Will Be Legalized Matt Dewey

  2. Description • Using ESS, it is argued in this paper that the recent state Supreme Court decision to legalize same-sex marriage in Iowa did in fact align with the feelings of the majority of the population.  The paper will discuss whether if those who oppose gay marriage or those who support gay marriage will be the dominant group in a particular state, while using the percentage of the statewide population that is Evangelical, black, believes in God with absolute certainty, and has a high school diploma as the predictor variables.

  3. History • Baker v. Nelson – 1971 – Minnesota • Baehr v. Miike – 1991 – Hawaii • DOMA – 1996 – Clinton • 1998 – Anti-same-sexmarriageamendment in Hawaii • 2001 – Vermont Legalizes Civil Unions • May 17, 2004 – Gay marriagelegalized in MA • October 10, 2008 – Legalized in CT • April 27, 2009 – Legalized in Iowa • September 1, 2009 – Will be legalized in Vermont

  4. States Included in the ESS Model Laws Regarding Same-Sex Partnerships in the United States ██ Same-sex marriages ██ Unions granting rights similar to marriage ██ Unions granting limited/enumerated rights ██ Foreign same-sex marriages recognized ██ No specific prohibition or recognition of same-sex marriages or unions ██ Statute bans same-sex marriage ██ Constitution bans same-sex marriage ██ Constitution bans same-sex marriage and other kinds of same-sex unions

  5. Variables • Four predictor variables used to determine the percentage of a state population that supports gay marriage were 1) % black 2) % evangelical 3) % believes in God 4) % with high school diploma

  6. Reasons for choosing variables • “Black voters consistently polled much lower than white voters on approval for same-sex marriage, about 16 percentage points.” (McKinley) • 64% of evangelicals think homosexuality should be strongly discouraged by society. (US Religion Landscape Survey)

  7. Model for Predicting State Populations • p = .5 – [2.38(%evangelical + %yesgod) + 3.12(%black)] 1 – [2.38(%evangelical + %yesgod) + 3.12(%black) + 2.75(%hsdiploma] Results: Iowa = 49% Massachusetts= 43% Connecticut = 44% Vermont = 36% California > 50% (52.2%) South Dakota = 52% (52.1%) South Carolina = 68% (78%) Wisconsin = 51% (59%) 1 / (1 + e^-(-976.458 + 24.79953(hsdiploma) + 2.915962(evangelical) – 16.82536(yesgod) – 12.89894(black)))

  8. Implications of the Model • The ESS model shows that higher education rates lead to a decrease in the proportion of state citizens that will oppose gay marriage. • The model also shows that the higher the percentage of blacks, evangelicals, and believers in God in the population, the higher the proportion of state citizens that will oppose gay marriage.

  9. Flaws of the Model • Only accounted for four variables. • Omitted Variable Bias in the Logistic Regression. • Imperfect Data: Only used data on 23 states

  10. Iowa • According to the ESS model, Iowa’s Supreme Court was in fact correctly representing the majority of the State by legalizing gay marriage.

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