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1. Fundamentals

1. Fundamentals. Decision Making, Cost Theory, Break Even Analysis, Financial Statements, Financial Ratios, Time Value of Money, Measures of profitability, Comparison of Alternatives. Overview. 1.1 Cost Theory, Break Even 1.2 Financial Statements 1.3 Financial Ratios

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1. Fundamentals

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  1. 1. Fundamentals Decision Making, Cost Theory, Break Even Analysis, Financial Statements, Financial Ratios, Time Value of Money, Measures of profitability, Comparison of Alternatives Project Evaluation

  2. Overview • 1.1 Cost Theory, Break Even • 1.2 Financial Statements • 1.3 Financial Ratios • 1.4 The Concept of Interest • 1.5 Profitability Measures • 1.6 Comparison of investment alternatives Project Evaluation

  3. You learn by reading the text, but also by thinking! Project Evaluation

  4. Decision Making • Rekognize/Analyze Decision Problem • Define Goal (What) • Data Collection • Identify Alternatives (How) • Select Criteria(s) • Assess Risk • Make Decision/Select best alternative Project Evaluation

  5. Capital Budgeting Decisions • Analyze (see previous slide) • Design (loops always necessary) • Plan/Market/Finance/Negotiate • Invest! • Operate/Manufacture • => Profit = Economic Sustainability Project Evaluation

  6. Cost Concepts • Variable and Fixed Cost • Net Profit Contribution • Break Even Analysis • Economics of Scale • Average and Marginal Cost • Sunk Costs and Opportunity Costs Project Evaluation

  7. Variable and Fixed Costs Project Evaluation

  8. Break Even Analysis • Net Profit Contribution (to cover Fixed Cost) • Price Elasticity • Optimizing Production • Annuity of Investment Cost • Economics of Scale Project Evaluation

  9. Net Profit Contribution Project Evaluation

  10. Break Even Example Project Evaluation

  11. Break Even Analysis Graphics Project Evaluation

  12. Economics of Scale Project Evaluation

  13. Massive and mighty! Project Evaluation

  14. Financing • Equity (Shareholders Funds) • Loans: • Regular • Annuity • Bullet • Baloon • WACC Project Evaluation

  15. Criteria / Measures • Return on Investment (/Equity) • Pay Back Period • Financial Statements • NPV, IRR, B/C .... • Multi Criteria Decision Making • Risk Factor • Efficient Frontier (Pareto) Project Evaluation

  16. Financial Statements • Statement of Earnings/Operating Statement • Statement of Cash Flow/Source & Allocation of Funds • Balance Sheet • Financial Ratios (Assets, Debt, Liquidity, Profitability, Market Value) Project Evaluation

  17. Operating Statement • Revenue/Income - Costs • => EBITDA • - Depreciation, Inventory Movement,... • - Interest of Loans • => Profit before Tax (EBT) • - Income Tax • - Dividend • =>Net Profit/Loss Project Evaluation

  18. Project Evaluation

  19. Source&Application of Funds 1 • Profit before Tax (from Op Statem) • + Depreciation • => Funds from Operations • + Loans & Equity Drawdown • => Funds for Allocation Project Evaluation

  20. Source&Application of Funds 2 • Allocation: • Investment • Repayment of Loans • Paid Taxes • Paid Dividend • => Total Allocation of Funds Project Evaluation

  21. Source&Application of Funds 3 • Changes in Net Current Assets: • Funds – Allocation • Analysis: • Changes in Cash Account • Changes in Debtors • Changes in Inventory • Changes in Creditors Project Evaluation

  22. Alternative Cash Flow • EBITDA • - Changes in Debtors + Creditors • => Cash Flow before Tax (Project) • - Interest & Repayment of Loans • => Free (Net) Cash Flow (Equity) • - Paid Dividend • + Drawdowns – Investment • => Cash Account Movement Project Evaluation

  23. Balance Sheet • Assets: • Current Assets: • Cash Account • Account Receivable • Inventory • Total Current A • Fixed Assets • => Total Assets • Debt & Capital: • Current Liabilities • Long Term Debt • Total Debt • Equity • Profit & Loss Bal • Total Capital • => Debt & Capital Project Evaluation

  24. Financial Ratios • Debt Management (DR, DSC, LLCR) • Liquidity (Current Ratios) • Asset Management (Turnover Ratios) • Market Value (P/E, Internal Value) • Profitability (ROI, ROE) Project Evaluation

  25. The Concept of Interest • Time Value of Money • Present and Future Value Calculations • Net Present Value (NPV) of Cash Flow Series • Profitability Measures • Comparison of alternatives Project Evaluation

  26. Time Value of Money • Amount today is not equal to same amount after n years • Many reasons: • Opportunity to earn interest • Inflation • Risk • Impatience? Project Evaluation

  27. Present and Future Values • Present Value: P, Future Value: F • Interest Rate per year: r • Future Value after 1 year: F = P*(1+r) • After 2 years: F2 = P*(1+r)*(1+r) • After n years: Fn = P*(1+r)^n • Present Value of F: Pn = Fn / (1+r)^n Project Evaluation

  28. Net Present Value of Cash Flow Series • Invested Capital is Cash Flow out • Operations generate Cash Flow in • Annual cash in/out: An • Net Present Value: NPV = Sum(An/(1+r)^n) • Should be > 0 Project Evaluation

  29. NPV Example, Project A: • Interest rate = 10% • Invested Capital year 0 : -100 MUSD • Operations years 1-5 => +30 “ • NPV: Year 0: -100 • year 1: +30/(1+0.1) = 27.3 • year 2: +30/(1+0.1)^2 = 24.8 • etc Project Evaluation

  30. Project Evaluation

  31. Profitability Measures • Net Present Value • Pay Back Period, discounted • Annual Worth / Annuity • Benefit / Cost Ratio • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • Relation of IRR to NPV Project Evaluation

  32. Profitability measures for the Example • Pay Back Period undiscounted = 4 years • Pay Back Period discounted = 5 years • Annuity of -100 MUSD = 26.4 • Annual Cash Flow in = 30.0 • Annual Net Worth = 3.6 • Benefits = NPV of 30 in 5 years = 113.7 • Cost = 100 Benefit/Cost Ratio = 1.137 (must be > 1) Project Evaluation

  33. Internal Rate of Return • Definition: The interest rate that results in a NPV = 0 • Search for r = IRR such that: • -100 = sum( 30/(1+r)^n) • Interpretation: Earning 30 MUSD per year is equivalent of having 100 MUSD on an account with interest rate of r • Here IRR = 15.2% Project Evaluation

  34. Relation of IRR to NPV Project Evaluation

  35. Comparison of investment alternatives • Marginal Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) • Problems with uneven lifetimes • Incremental Method Project Evaluation

  36. To every problem there exists a solution! Project Evaluation

  37. Marginal Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) • The lowest acceptable limit for IRR, i.e. IRR should be > MARR • MARR is determined by the best available alternative use of money • MARR can be IRR of best alternative investment possibility, or loan interest of the most expensive loan Project Evaluation

  38. Problems with uneven lifetimes • Determine lifetime (planning horizon) for each investment alternative • If uneven, use the shortest lifetime = Tmin in comparison • Estimate salvage value for other alternatives at end of Tmin and add to the cash flow Project Evaluation

  39. Incremental Method for Comparison • NPV measure: Select highest NPV • Annual Worth: Same • Pay Back Period: Not applicable • IRR and B/C measures: Use incremental method, i.e. calculate the difference • Determine if IRRdiff > MARR • Determine if B/Cdiff > 1 Project Evaluation

  40. Example of Incremental Method Project Evaluation

  41. Difference B – A => IRR < MARR, so A is selected Project Evaluation

  42. We can´t always be choosy! Project Evaluation

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