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ISA – Killing Speed Electronically

ISA – Killing Speed Electronically. Oliver Carsten Institute for Transport Studies University of Leeds UK. HMI: Tell the driver the speed limit. C ontrol (if wanted): a link to the drivetrain. How does ISA operate?. Evidence from trial after trial is that this can be made to work reliably.

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ISA – Killing Speed Electronically

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  1. ISA – Killing Speed Electronically Oliver Carsten Institute for Transport Studies University of Leeds UK

  2. HMI: Tell the driver the speed limit • Control (if wanted):a link to the drivetrain How does ISA operate? Evidence from trial after trial is that this can be made to work reliably • Position: a GPS-based navigation system • Information: a digital road map with speed limits

  3. Driving with ISA reduces crash risk • Calculation of individual crash risk with intervening ISA (report to Transport for London, 2006) • Method: • By combining observed changes in speed behaviour on 30 mph roads (from ISA-UK Trial 1) • With risk of crash involvement given driving speed on urban roads (from Kloeden et al., 1997) • We can calculate an average saving in the risk of a crash • Answer: • 19.3% reduction

  4. Attitudes • Generally supportive public attitudes: • MORI poll in UK for FIA Foundation in 2002: • 70% support for warning ISA in urban areas • 58% would support non-overridable limiters on residential streets if that meant road humps would be removed • ISA “grows” on those who experience it: • Almqvist and Nygard (1997) found that 73% of drivers reported being more positive towards ISA after using it than before • Lahrmann, Madsen and Boroch (2001) reported that 15 out of 20 drivers became more favourable to using ISA after experience of the system

  5. ISA brings other benefits • Fuel savings • CO2 savings • Potential to reduce journey time (managed motorways; reduction in incidents) • Cheap traffic calming

  6. PROSPER Results:Benefits and Costs Oliver Carsten Institute for Transport Studies University of Leeds UK The Prosper project is co-funded by the European Commission, Directorate General for Energy and Transport.

  7. Accident prediction and cost-benefit analysis • Six countries — Belgium, Great Britain, France, NL, Spain and Sweden • Two major scenarios • Market driven (those who want ISA fit it) • Authority driven (first encouragement and then compulsion) • Scenarios affect mix of ISA systems • Procedure: • Predict traffic growth • Predict accident risk without ISA • Predict additional safety impact of ISA (via change in speed patterns) • Analyse costs and benefits

  8. Penetration of Voluntary ISA in Market-Driven Scenario

  9. Penetration of Voluntary ISA in Authority-Driven Scenario

  10. Reductions in fatalities (ISA versus no ISA) in 2050

  11. Benefit-to-cost ratios by country and scenario Note: Year of mandatory usage for Authority Scenario is in range 2032 to 2035

  12. Implementation of ISA • Comments at PROSPER seminar (policy-driven group): • Waiting till 2035 or 2050 is too long • Can we learn some lessons from another successful technology — seatbelts?

  13. Time line for seatbelts

  14. Stages • Stage 1: Voluntary fitment • Lots of trouble to install • Stage 2: Required anchorages • Pioneers adopt • Stage 3: Required fitment • Large numbers can voluntarily adopt • Stage 4: Compulsory usage

  15. The “Tipping Points” The “Tipping Points” are: • Requiring capability on the vehicle (= the seatbelt anchorages)This enables voluntary fitment • Requiring fitmentThis enables large-scale voluntary usage But also one crucial difference with seatbelts: ISA cannot be used without an information service

  16. Great Britain: Seatbelt wearing rates for front occupants of cars and vans

  17. Conclusions • “ETSC seeks to identify and promote effective measures on the basis of international scientific research and best practice in areas which offer the greatest potential for a reduction in transport crashes and casualties.” • ISA fits those criteria with huge potential for casualty reduction • ETSC and other safety organisations should promote 2 stages of deployment: Stage 1: • A pan-European speed limit information service • A standard link between speed limit information and vehicle control (ECE Reg 89 on Speed Limitation Devices as amended in 2002 allows for adjustable speed limiters) Stage 2: • Required fitment of intervening (but overridable) ISA

  18. One last point • Do we need a new name for ISA? • How likely is that a customer will walk into the showroom and ask for “Intelligent Speed Adaptation”? • How about “In-Vehicle Speed Support” (IVSS)?

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