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CEET Annual Conference 28 October 2011 The contribution of VET to a more inclusive Australia

CEET Annual Conference 28 October 2011 The contribution of VET to a more inclusive Australia. Tom Karmel. The value of completion. VET qualification rates are terrible But, does it matter...... yes it does Does this have anything to do with social inclusion yes it does. Outline.

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CEET Annual Conference 28 October 2011 The contribution of VET to a more inclusive Australia

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  1. CEET Annual Conference28 October 2011The contribution of VET to a more inclusive Australia Tom Karmel

  2. The value of completion • VET qualification rates are terrible • But, does it matter...... • yes it does • Does this have anything to do with social inclusion • yes it does

  3. Outline • Model the pay-off to completion • Identify the groups with the highest pay-offs • Relate the pay-offs to intention to complete and completion • Think about the implications

  4. Outcome variables • employed after training • further study after training • employed or further study after training • improved employment circumstances after training • occupational status after training • wages after training

  5. Methodology • Run separate models for graduates and module completers • Predict outcomes for every individual, assuming that they are graduate/module completer • Pay-off=graduate outcome/module completer outcome

  6. Simplification • Focus on • employment after training • study after training • wages for full-time workers (after training)

  7. Employed after training

  8. Further study

  9. Salary full time

  10. Summary of pay-offs after training

  11. Employment status after training

  12. Further Study

  13. Salary full time

  14. Summary • It pays to complete in respect of employment or further study • For employment, pay-off is highest for those not employed before training • For further study, pay-off is huge, and highest for cert I/II, and depends on employment status before training • Those doing diplomas, or a cert III & not employed before, get higher wages by completing

  15. The link with completion • Question. Are those who benefit more from completion more likely to complete? • Answer. No. • Question. Are those who benefit more from completion more likely to intend to complete? • Answer. No.

  16. Probability to complete

  17. Probability to complete

  18. Probability of intending to complete

  19. Probability of intending to complete

  20. Correlations with prob of completion

  21. Correlations with intention to complete

  22. Modelling the probability of completion

  23. Final comments • Our analysis is helpful in specifying groups for performance indicators. • Gives an insight into where public funds should go? • Low completion rates do need to be addressed. • payment on completions?

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