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Syria and US Foreign Policy

Syria and US Foreign Policy. Idean Salehyan Associate Professor of Political Science University of North Texas. Outline. Background Understanding the Syrian war US responses and policy options. Syria Background. Demography: 22.5 Million people Ethnicity: 90% Arab, 9% Kurdish

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Syria and US Foreign Policy

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  1. Syria and US Foreign Policy Idean Salehyan Associate Professor of Political Science University of North Texas

  2. Outline • Background • Understanding the Syrian war • US responses and policy options

  3. Syria Background • Demography: • 22.5 Million people • Ethnicity: 90% Arab, 9% Kurdish • Religion: 74% Sunni Islam; 16% Alawi & Shia; 10% Christian • History: • Ottoman Empire • WWI, French Mandate • Independence in 1946

  4. Syria Background • 1963 Ba’athist coup • Hafez al-Assad rise to power, 1971 • Involvement in Lebanon • Relationship with Hezbollah • Muslim Brotherhood Challenge • 1982 Hama Massacre Hafez al-Assad

  5. BashAr Al-Assad • Born September 11, 1965 • Studied medicine in the UK • Groomed to be president after death of brother • Assumes office, 2000 after father’s death • Remains close to Iran, Hezbollah • Shia ‘revival’

  6. Arab spring • Peaceful “revolutions” • Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen (partial) • Successful repression • Bahrain • Violent revolution • Libya • Civil war • Syria • Sectarian nature of the conflict

  7. Beginnings of Syrian Unrest • 15 March, 2011. Protests in Damascus, Aleppo, and Daraa. • Repression/imprisonment • Promises of some reform • Failure of Arab League and UN peace plans • 25 April, 2011, Siege of Daraa. Hundreds killed • Military desertions. • Armed clashes begin in June.

  8. Opposition forces • Free Syrian Army. Military defectors, led by Colonel Riad al-Asaad • Estimates between 10,000-25,000 troops • Not a unified movement • Local defense groups • Al-Nusra Front • Foreign Jihadists • Kurdish Militias • Syrian National CouncilSyrian National Coalition

  9. Sectarian conflict • Conflict has taken increasingly sectarian tone • Assad loyalists include Alawites and Christians • Fighting for survival • Opposition forces largely Sunni Arab • Secular/moderate forces • Radical Jihadists • Kurdish militias

  10. International Spillover • 1.3 Million refugees • Jordan: 420,000 • Lebanon: 200,000 • Turkey: 300,000 • Iraq: 100,000

  11. US response • “For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step aside.” • President Obama, August 18, 2011. • “Military intervention at this point could hinder humanitarian operations… embroil the United States in a significant, lengthy and uncertain military commitment… bringing the United States into a broader regional conflict or proxy war.” • -Chuck Hegel, US Sec of Defense. April 13, 2013

  12. US RESPONSE • Policy debate over arming the rebels • Strategic ambivalence: “Assad must go, but…” • Humanitarian and non-lethal aid only • Working through US allies in region • No military action • Difficulties of identification • Uncertain outcome

  13. Possible scenarios • Scenario 1 (best case) • Assad steps aside, opposition forces agree on a democratic constitution. UNLIKELY

  14. Possible scenarios • Scenario 2 • Assad’s forces gain the upper hand, crush the insurgency. UNLIKELY

  15. Possible scenarios • Scenario 3 (worst case) • Assad removed from power by force • Fighting between opposition militias, widespread retaliation/cleansing against Alawites • Regional forces drawn in POSSIBLE

  16. Possible scenarios • Scenario 4 • Conflict hits a “stalemate” • Negotiated settlement including a UN force, security guarantees, eventual elections NOT ON THE AGENDA BUT SHOULD BE

  17. US RESPONSE • Time to start thinking about peace plan. • Negotiations including Assad, opposition forces, regional actors, Russia, US. • Potential terms of a deal • Assad steps aside • Power-sharing constitution between Sunnis, Alawites, and Kurds • UN force provides security guarantees, esp for Alawites • Military reintegration

  18. Questions?

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