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Aerosols: What are the links with climate & How well are we modeling them?

Aerosols: What are the links with climate & How well are we modeling them?. W.D. Collins www.cgd.ucar.edu/~wcollins National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado Acknowledgements: A. Conley, D. Fillmore, J. Kiehl, P. Rasch, NSF, and NASA. IPCC 2001 Anthropogenic Forcings.

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Aerosols: What are the links with climate & How well are we modeling them?

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  1. Aerosols: What are the links with climate &How well are we modeling them? W.D. Collinswww.cgd.ucar.edu/~wcollins National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado Acknowledgements: A. Conley, D. Fillmore, J. Kiehl, P. Rasch, NSF, and NASA Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  2. IPCC 2001 Anthropogenic Forcings Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  3. Links with Climate: Forcing Direct radiative forcing Indirect cloud effects 1st: Albedo (Twomey) 2nd: Drizzle (Albrecht) Semi-direct: Lifetime Feedbacks & response Temperature & lapse rate Surface fluxes Atmospheric circulation Hydrological cycle Convective diabatic heating Fidelity of modeling: Uncertainties in aerosols Sources and fluxes Optical properties Magnitude of sinks Vertical transport Carbon species Uncertainties in climate links Physics of indirect effects Magnitude of semi-direct effects Response of shallow and deep convection to forcing Topics Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  4. Global Aerosol Assimilation Climatology 1995-2000 Aerosol Assimilation AVHRR Analysis Aerosol Forcing Analysis NCAR CAM Climate Impacts Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  5. Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  6. Carbon Emissions (Cooke et al, 1999, and Liousse et al, 1996) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  7. Annual Mean Aerosol Mass Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  8. Optical Depths for Each Species Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  9. Global Evaluation using Aeronet Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  10. Evaluation using Aeronet, Bermuda Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  11. Evaluation using Aeronet, Western Africa Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  12. Evaluation using Aeronet, South America Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  13. Clear-sky Radiative Forcing TOA Surface Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  14. All-sky Radiative Forcing TOA Surface Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  15. Aerosol Forcing on the Atmosphere Clear Sky All Sky Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  16. Shortwave Heating Rates Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  17. Change in Atmospheric Temperatures T (2m) T (850 mb) 99% Significance Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  18. Change in Temperature Profiles Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  19. Change in Boundary Layer Height 99% Significance Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  20. Change in Residual Surface Energy Flux 99% Significance Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  21. Change in Net Surface Longwave Flux 99% Significance Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  22. Change in Sensible Heat Flux 99% Significance Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  23. Change in Latent Heat Flux 99% Significance Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  24. Perturbation to Precipitation Rates Annual DJF 95% Significance Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  25. Perturbation to Near Surface Winds Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  26. Change in Atmospheric Vertical Velocity Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  27. Evaluation using MODIS Observations (Fillmore and Collins, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  28. MODIS Assimilation over Land and Ocean (Fillmore and Collins, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  29. Uncertainties in Bulk Dust Mobilization (Fillmore and Collins, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  30. Uncertainties in Anthropogenic Source Strengths? (Fillmore and Collins, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  31. Evidence from Assimilation for Speciation Errors (Fillmore and Collins, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  32. Uncertainties in Black Carbon from Fossil Fuels (Bond, Rasch, Collins, and Streets, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  33. Uncertainties in BC from Fossil Fuels (cont). China/SE Asia India N. Asia Europe N. America (Bond, Rasch, Collins, and Streets, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  34. Uncertainties in Primary Organic Carbon (FF) (Bond, Rasch, Collins, and Streets, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  35. Uncertainties in Primary OC (cont). India China/SE Asia Europe N. Asia N. America (Bond, Rasch, Collins, and Streets, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  36. Uncertainties in Global Carbon Aerosol Burdens (Bond, Rasch, Collins, and Streets, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  37. Uncertainty in Column Burden of BC (Bond, Rasch, Collins, and Streets, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  38. Uncertainty in Radiative Forcing by BC (Bond, Rasch, Collins, and Streets, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  39. Uncertainty in Total Carbon Forcing (Bond, Rasch, Collins, and Streets, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  40. Sensitivity of Forcing to BC/OC Ratios TOA Forcing Summary (Bond, Rasch, Collins, and Streets, 2002) (Collins et al, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  41. Observed vs Modeled Radiative Sensitivity (Collins et al, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003 (Satheesh and Ramanathan, 2002)

  42. Optical Effects of Internal vs. External Mixing (Ramanathan et al, 2001) Pure external → internal mixture  10% variations in forcing, AOD Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  43. Sensitivity to Scavenging Parameterizations (Mahowald and Rasch, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  44. Vertical Distribution of Aerosols (Ramanathan et al, 2001) (Ramanathan et al, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  45. Global Information on Vertical Aerosol Profiles Based upon MATCH, unobserved mass = • 86% of carbonaceous species • 97% of soil dust • 85% of sulfate • >99% of sea salt (http://www-sage2.larc.nasa.gov) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  46. All-Sky Aerosol Radiative Forcing (Ramanathan et al, 2001) (Collins et al, 2002) Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  47. Global All-Sky Aerosol Forcing Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

  48. Issues • TOA forcing due to carbonaceous species • Partial cancellation between OC and BC • Sign of forcing dependent on inventory. • Radiative effects of absorbing aerosols • Vertical relationship to clouds is highly uncertain. • Vertical profile is dependent on shallow/deep convective parameterizations. • Effects of aerosols on climate system • Answers may(will) differ on coupling to ocean/land surfaces. • Quantification requires uncoupled and coupled experiments. • Better quantification requires better inventories. Chemistry-Climate Interactions Workshop Sante Fe, 2003

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