LEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System

1. LEAPLong-range Energy Alternatives Planning System Charlie Heaps Stockholm Environment Institute-Boston/Tellus Institute www.seib.org/leap leap@tellus.org April 2003

2. Highlights • Integrated energy-environment, scenario-based modeling system. • User-friendly data entry, scenario management and reporting tools. • Scope: demand, supply, resources, environmental loadings (emissions), cost-benefit analysis, non-energy sector emissions. • Methodology: Physical accounting of energy. Also spreadsheet-like expressions, for econometric and simulation modeling. • Time-Frame: medium to long-term, annual time-step, unlimited number of years. • Data requirements: low initial data requirements. Many aspects optional. Start-out simple and add detail later. • Geographic Applicability: local, national, regional.

3. What Can You Do With LEAP? • Energy outlooks (forecasting) • Energy balances and environmental inventories. • Integrated resource planning. • Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis. • Strategic analyses of sustainable energy futures.

4. Scope • Energy Demand • Choice of methodologies: from top-down econometric to bottom-up end-use analysis. • Flexible hierarchical data structures. • Basic methodology: energy = activity level x energy intensity. • Final or Useful energy intensities. • Special features for modeling transport sector energy and emissions. • Energy Conversion (Transformation) • Simulation of any energy conversion and transportation sector (e.g., electric generation, transmission & distribution, oil refining, charcoal making, coal mining, oil extraction, ethanol production, hydrogen production, etc.) • Choice of simulations for dispatch of processes (e.g. simple shares or merit-order dispatch to a load-duration curve). • Exogenous and/or endogenous modeling of capacity expansion. • Energy Resources • Resource requirements, production, sufficiency, imports and exports. • Optional land-area based accounting for biomass and renewable resources. • Costs • Capital, fixed and variable O&M, fuel, environmental externalities. • Environment • Emissions and direct impacts of energy system. • Database includes emission factors for 100s of technologies (including all IPCC factors) • Non-energy sector sources and sinks.

5. Selected Applications

6. Selected Applications • Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Studies: Argentina, Bolivia, Cambodia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Lebanon, Mali, Mongolia, Korea, Senegal, Tanzania, Vietnam and many others. • Energy and Carbon Scenarios: Chinese Energy Research Institute (ERI) and U.S. National Labs. • Envisioning a Hydrogen Economy in 7 U.S. Cities: Tellus Institute/NREL. • U.S. Light Duty Vehicle Energy Use and Emissions: for U.S. transportation NGOs. • Multi-stakeholder Greenhouse Gas Action Plan: Rhode Island State Government, USA. • APERC Energy Outlook: Energy forecasts for each APEC economy. • East Asia Energy Futures Project: Study of energy security issues in East Asian countries including the Koreas, China, Mongolia, Russia, Japan. • Rural Wood Energy Planning in South Asia: FAO-RWEDP. • Integrated Resource Planning: Malaysia, Indonesia, Ghana. • Integrated Transportation Studies: Texas (Tellus) and 7 Asian Cities (AIT). • Sulfur Abatement Scenarios for China: Chinese EPA/UNEP. • Global Energy Studies; Tellus Institute & Greenpeace.

7. Demand Modeling Methodologies • Final Energy Analysis: e = a  i • Where e=energy demand, a=activity level, i=final energy intensity (energy consumed per unit of activity) • Example: energy demand in the cement industry can be projected based on tons of cement produced and energy used per ton. Each can change in the future. • Useful Energy Analysis: e = a  (u / n) • Where u=useful energy intensity, n = efficiency • Example: energy demand in buildings will change in future as more buildings are constructed [+a]; incomes increase and so people heat and cool buildings more [+u]; or building insulation improves [-u]; or as people switch from less efficient oil boilers to electricity or natural gas [+n].

8. A Simple Demand Data Structure

9. Transformation Modules

10. Social Cost-Benefit Analysis in LEAP • Societal perspective of costs and benefits (i.e. economic not financial analysis). • Avoids double-counting by drawing consistent boundary around analysis (e.g. whole system including. • Cost-benefit analysis calculates the Net Present Value (NPV) of the differences in costs between two scenarios. • NPV sums all costs in all years of the study discounted to a common base year. • Optionally includes externality costs.

11. Simple Example of Cost-Benefit Analysis Two scenarios for meeting future growth in electricity lighting demand: • Base Case • Demand: future demand met by cheap incandescent bulbs. • Transformation: growth in demand met by new fossil fired generating capacity. • Alternative Case • Demand: DSM programs increase the penetration of efficient (but more expensive) fluorescent lighting. • Transformation: Slower growth in electricity consumption and investments to reduce transmission & distribution losses mean that less generating capacity is required.

12. Simple Cost-Benefit Analysis (cont.) • The Alternative Case… • …uses more expensive (but longer lived) lightbulbs. • Result: depends on costs, lifetimes, & discount rate. • …requires extra capital and O&M investment in the electricity transmission & distribution system. • Result: net cost • ..requires less generating plants to be constructed (less capital and O&M costs). • Result: net benefit • …requires less fossil fuel resources to be produced or imported. • Result: net benefit • …produces less emissions (less fuel combustion). • Result: net benefit (may not be valued)

13. TED: The Technology and Environmental Database

14. Typical Data Requirements

15. ..Compared to DOS Version of LEAP • Windows-based tool. • Visual editing of data (tree and RES diagram). • Flexible data structures. • Wider choice of methodologies including useful energy analysis and transport stock turnover. • Spreadsheet-like expressions allow simulation and econometric modeling techniques to be used within overall accounting framework. • User-friendly reporting capabilities. • Import/export to Excel/Word. • Internet enabled for updates and technical support.

16. Forthcoming… • New data being developed for TED. • Improvements to TED to allow for easier updating of data. • Limited Optimization. • Software translations: French, Spanish, Chinese.

17. Minimum Hardware/Software Requirements • Windows 98 or later • 400 Mhz Pentium PC • 64 MB RAM • Internet Explorer 4.0 or later • Optional: Internet connection, Microsoft Office

18. Status and Dissemination • Available at no charge to non-profit, academic and governmental institutions based in developing countries. • Download fromhttp://www.seib.org/leap or on CD distributed at this meeting. • Technical support from leap@tellus.org • User name and password required to fully enable software. Available on completion of license agreement. • Most users will need training: available through SEI-Boston or regional partner organizations. • Check LEAP web site for news of training workshops.

19. View Bar • Analysis View: where you create data structures, enter data, and construct models and scenarios. • Results View: where you examine the outcomes of scenarios as charts and tables. • Diagram View: “Reference Energy System” diagram showing flows of energy in the area. • Energy Balance: standard table showing energy production/consumption in a particular year. • Summary View: cost-benefit comparisons of scenarios and other customized tabular reports. • Overviews: where you group together multiple “favorite” charts for presentation purposes. • TED: Technology and Environmental Database – technology characteristics, costs, and environmental impacts of apx. 1000 energy technologies. • Notes: where you document and reference your data and models.