UNIVERSAL SERVICE WIRELESS BROADBAND POLICY IN SERBIA

1. UNIVERSAL SERVICE WIRELESS BROADBAND POLICY IN SERBIA Prof.dr Nataša Gospić, University Belgrade dr Dragan Bogojević, University Belgrade dr Milenko Cvetinovic, RATEL 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

2. BASIC REFERENCES • TELECOM ACT • STRATEGY FOR TELECOM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT 2006-2010 • STRATEGY FOR INFORMATION SOCIETY IN SERBIA • EU DIRECTIVES 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

3. Telecom Act -Legal provisions • Universal service” means the set of telecommunications services of specified quality and scope which shall be available to all users of the public telecommunication network in the Republic of Serbia, at reasonable prices; • The Ministry responsibility is to define the list of universal services to be provided by the operators of public fixed telecommunications networks, based on the proposal made by the Agency; • The Agency shall designate the telecommunications operator of a public telecommunications network that shall be responsible for the provision of universal services. 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

4. Initial scope of universal service • The initial scope of universal service must include the following: • 1.access to a public fixed telephone service, including the service of data transmission using voice telephony which enables quality access to the Internet; • 2. special measures to ensure equivalent access to the public voice service for the disabled and socially disadvantaged users; • 3. free access to emergency services; • 4. public pay phone service; and • 5. access to telephone operator and directory services. • NO BROADBAND SERVICES INCLUDED • HOWEVER, INFORMATION SOCIETY STRATEGY, AND OBLIGATIONS FROM SEE AGENDA PLUS DOCUMENT CHALLENGE BB ACCESS FOR ALL SCHOOLS 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

5. TELECOM STRATEGY OBJECTIVES • Growth of the Internet penetration rate over 30%; • Increase of broadband service users penetration; • In order to provide broadband network connection to as many residents as possible at affordable price, relevant state authorities need to: • subsidize building of broadband networks in geographic areas where such building is not profitable for commercial providers; • provide public Internet access terminals in public places (schools, public institutions, libraries, post offices, train and bus stations, health centers, community centers, centers for agricultural products, etc.); • prevent attempts of competition limitation and market monopolization; 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

6. US IN STRATEGY FOR TELECOM DEVELOPMENT • Establish the Fund for universal service cost recovery and ensure availability of the universal service; • In order to stimulate competition, fulfill universal service obligation and apply technologies enabling fast building of access networks and primarily broadband access, the Ministry will adopt assignment for fixed wireless access. • 3,5GHz 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

7. 3,5 GHz • REGULATORY AGENCY FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS - RATEL • Proposals of assignment plans for 3,5 GHz frequency band and division of the territory of the Republic of Serbia into areas, i.e. towns, applying the criteria of attractiveness for foreign investors and technical optimality. Allocation of radio-frequency bands will be carried out in accordance with the Law, through a public tender procedure for a fixed telecommunications network license. • Long-term user protection, regulatory obligations and limits, numbering availability, promotion of market competition, amount of initial investments, technical and economic feasibility and, in particular, to efficient radio-frequency usage. • In case there is a need, propose to the Ministry to enable license issuance for operation in other frequency bands as well for needs of building of networks, which include fixed wireless access. 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

8. CREATION OF US PROJECT • In order to fulfill the obligation of introducing the Universal Service Policy, NRA-RATEL got obligation to: • Make a detailed overview of the situation of telecom infrastructure and telecom service provisioning in the whole territory of the Republic of Serbia, with proposal for US solutions • PROJECT STARTED IN JULY 2007 • The project is executed by joint work of Transport and Traffic Engineering Faculty, University Belgrade and RATEL. 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

9. OUTLINES OF THE US PROJECT • INTRODUCTION • PRESENT SITUATION – ANALISYS (I PHASE) • RESEARCH IN FIELDS (II PHASE) • RESULTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

10. I PHASE OF THE US PROJECT • Analysis of current telecom development in 24 regions and city of Belgrade • 7.498.001 inhabitants, • 2.521.190 households • 4.715 settlements • DEFINITION OF THE DATA BASES INLUDING: • number of populated places (settlements with more then 50 inhabitants and/or 20 households) • inhabitants • inhabitants aging • migration parameters • employments • GDP on municipality level • number of fixed phones • teledensity • identification of settlement without telephone, • identification of US critical municipality/region 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

11. I PHASE-MUNICIPALITY’S DATABASE • 161 Municipalities • Municipality’s statistics includes: • Existing fixed telephony services • Mobile signal coverage • Internet • Public pay phones • Marginalized social categories • Number of handicap persons and their locations 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

12. THE DATABASE FOR SETTLEMENTS • For each settlement (4.715 ): • Number of fixed telephone subscribers • Inhabitants index 2002/1991 • Mobile signal coveragefor: • settlements with 0%, 4% and 10% penetration • Internet access 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

13. Extract from Settlements Statistics, based on data from 2002 and 2006 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

14. Criteria for definition of critical settlements for US • Basic: + 20 households and/or + 50 inhabitants • Additional: • no mobile signal • inhabitant’s index (2002/1991) • school, post office, ambulance, on the border to EU..... 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

15. Structuring of critical settlements for US • Number of inhabitants • Potential touristy locations • Natural resources • Requirements for BB access 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

16. Tariff packages • Social categories • People with special needs • Overview on other utilities tariff packages • Needs for BB services 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

17. Identification of US settlements - example 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

18. II PHASE • RESEARCH IN FIELD • COMPARISON OF REAL SITUATION WITH I PHASE OBTAINED DATA • FINAL RESULTS • EVALUATION OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS • ELEMENTS FOR TECHO-ECONOMIC ANALISYS • RECOMMENDATIONS • PROPOSAL FOR INITIAL US FUND 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

19. Research in field • Questionnaire for field investigation is prepared. • The Questionnaire contains 20 questions. • 14 regions, 40 municipalities and 253 settlements are visited. • About 30 persons were included in this work. 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

20. II PHASE RESULTS • Based on answers from the Questionnaire following conclusions are carried out: • Comparison of number of inhabitants and number of households in field and in statistical data are high (correlation coefficient > 0.9) • Correlation between number of phones in “electronic yellow pages” and number from field investigation is high (correlation coefficient > 0.9), but only if compared data are not older then 6 months and if elaboration is performed on settlements with fixed phone penetration less then 10%. 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

21. Estimation of needs for US in settlements with penetration ≤ 10% • Needs for fixed phone roughly could be measured as number of households without phones. • Fixed telephony is main request • As about 97% of settlements are covered by mobile signals and in average more then 100% of inhabitants have mobile phones, needs for mobile telephony “are proved in practice”. • Analysis shows that computer penetration is very low (2%) • About 35% of analyzed settlements expressed interest for Internet access 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

22. Economical and telecommunications development Close correlation has been identified between economical development and telecom development;Most critical places were on the south, where the economic development is lower. Level of teledensity level of national income Relation between level of telephone penetration and level of national income on municipality level 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

23. US for people with disabilities and low income households • Background-data to start with • National statistics – number and categories of possible users • existing special measures in Serbia and other countries • Approach • Defining measures to ensure 3A (Availability & Accessibility& Affordability) for disabled and low income users • Analyzing social categories (user groups) who can enjoy rights on special measures (number and needs) along with different sets of services (fixed telephony and/or mobile telephony and/or Internet access) and costs • Problems • inconsistency in disability definition • Lack of reliable statistical data – (severe variations from 400 to 800 thousands)- not all in system of social care • Conclusion / Solution proposal • Measures to ensure access to special payphones and other equipment • Models of special tariff schemes (five models for three different sets of services and two types of user groups) 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

24. In numbers… 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

25. Methodology for Appropriate USTechnology Selection Fuzzy logic model 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

26. Techno-economic analysis • Techno-economic analysis for all US critical region is performed with several technological options: • VSAT • Mobile GSM / GPRS / UMTS • WiMAX • CDMA 450 MHz • Classical wireline access networks based on copper and/or optical technologies. • Results of the techno-economic analysis are used for calculation of initial amount for US fund. 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

27. US policy scenarios: • Based on: • Strategy for telecom development • Results from Phase I and Phase II • Obligations from approved eSEE Agenda plus (November 2007, Sarajevo) and • EU Directive on US 2002/22 • The Project proposes three scenarios for US policy 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

28. Proposed scenarios for US policy • Scenario A: US should include the same set of services as it is defined in Telecom Act with additional service for functional Internet (EU Directive 2002/22) and broadband access for schools (eSEE Agenda plus) and institutions for handicap people. • Scenario B: US should include different set of services per different regions, depending on their telecommunications and economical development and local authorities’ plans and initiatives. This scenario includes broadband services as part of US in regions that have less then 20 settlements without fixed phones, proper telecommunications infrastructure and economical development above republic average. For other regions Scenario A should be applied. • Scenario C: Implementation of the Scenario A and the Scenario B (broadband services) on the following way: in the period from 2009-2010 application of Scenario A for all regions and beyond 2010 application of Scenario B for broadband services. 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

29. What is next? • Based on findings from this Project, RATEL should propose US policy • The proposed policy will be publicly discussed and after that it should be approved by the Ministry for telecommunication and Information Society. • IMPLEMENTATION OF THE POLICY FOR US 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

30. Bill Gates • “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction.“ 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE

31. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! n.gospic@sf.bg.ac.rs d.bogojevic@sf.bg.ac.rs milenko.cvetinovic@ratel.org.rs 09 September, ITU Workshop, GENEVE