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Dan B ălteanu Institute of Geography Romanian Academy,

ROMANIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE. GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION – A TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS. Dan B ălteanu Institute of Geography Romanian Academy,. Wolfram Mauser Ludwig-Maximilians University, Munich. February 18, 2013.

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Dan B ălteanu Institute of Geography Romanian Academy,

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  1. ROMANIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION – A TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Dan Bălteanu Institute of Geography Romanian Academy, Wolfram Mauser Ludwig-Maximilians University, Munich February 18, 2013

  2. Bridge over Danube, Apolodor din Damasc (103-105 AD), Source: Istoria Romanilor, vol II, 2001 • Pillars of the Danube Strategy: • Connectivity • Environmental protection • Economic development • Strengthening the governance within the Danube Region

  3. Global Change Atlas of the Danube Basin- Past, present, future - • Main purpose: • To reflect the current and future situation of the Danube Basin within a global change perspective • To be a tool for decision makers from Danube countries to respond to the challenges of a changing environment • To build a product responsive to the local, national and regional stakeholders’ requirements and to assure visibility of the Strategy • To clearly distinguish the threats and opportunities for the development of the Danubian community • To identify critical areas in terms of environmental degradation, industrial decline, poverty and conflicts

  4. Keywords of the Atlas

  5. INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE REGION STRATEGY Regional assessment of present-day situation and of climate change impacts and potential adaptation strategies Methodological approach will be based on DANUBIA system developed for the Upper Danube Atlas– a flexible framework to couple the various submodels of different disciplines with the help of the latest software tools

  6. INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE BASIN STRATEGY It will be based on social scenarios developed in GLOWA-Danube project – social megatrends from SinusSociovision, referring to the situation of the society as a whole and its change in the future. Also, there will be used methods applied in several FP6 and FP7 projects– e.g. delineating homogenous regions in terms of their endogenous adaptive potential based on cluster and factor analyses

  7. Inhalt • E Einleitende Beiträge • 1 Natur- und Sozialraum • 2 Simulationsmodelle der Teilmodelle • 3 Szenarien und Ergebnisse • Impressum • Glossar Prof. W. Mauser – coordinator University of Munchen

  8. Upper Danube Atlas Aspects of integration in GLOWA-Danube

  9. Upper Danube Atlas Model of the scenario-based support system DANUBIA

  10. SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE - CLAVIER PROJECT CLAVIER APPROACH OF VULNERABILITY: • Economic Vulnerability= f (Exposure, Economic Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity) • High Regional Adaptive Capacity reduces Regional Vulnerability • The analysis is based on a series of exposure and sensitivity indicators relevant in determining the adaptive capacity of a region to climate change Source: The IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, cited by Stern, 2007 CLAVIER Economic Vulnerability Assessment complies with the IPCC approach on Vulnerability to Climate Change

  11. ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC METHODOLOGY • Data was analyzed using 2 statistical methods: Cluster Analysis and PCA • 8 clusters at NUTS III level • EUROSTAT INDICATORS & INDEXES: structural variables (e.g. sectoral employment, regional GDP, value added shares) spatial variables (accessibility, regional employment shares)

  12. ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC RESULTS

  13. enviroGRIDS

  14. IMPACT2C Stakeholder Workshop - Significance for Romanian Researches Dan Bălteanu 13 Nov 2012 – IIASA

  15. PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS • The Atlas is an interdisciplinary tool which will bring policy – relevant solution – oriented results in the main four pillars of EU Strategy for the Danube Region; • The Atlas will be a dynamic digital document at NUTS 3 level based on EUROSTAT data, INSPIRE and several EU strategic and thematic directives; • The “GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION” will provide (Spatial) Scientific Services (SSS) for a wide variety of socially and environmentally pressing issues raised by global change in the Danube Region’s countries and will support bottom-up initiatives. • The Atlas will provide support to a broad range of stakeholders in order to ensure a balanced commitment, based on knowledge, of all the relevant priority areas of the EU Strategy.

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