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China : the next super power? How will the world be affected?

China : the next super power? How will the world be affected?. Presentation to the High Level Conference, Counselors for Real Estate. July 15 th , 2006 By Patrick Cheung, Vision 2047 Foundation. Discussion Issues for this Session. What drives China’s development?

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China : the next super power? How will the world be affected?

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  1. China : the next super power?How will the world be affected? Presentation to the High Level Conference, Counselors for Real Estate July 15th, 2006 By Patrick Cheung, Vision 2047 Foundation

  2. Discussion Issues for this Session • What drives China’s development? • China, is the glass half full or half empty? • Will China be the next super power? How big can it get? • What challenges will it face along the way? Can China sustain its development responsibly? • How might China interact with the rest of the world? • What does it mean for the real estate industry? • What could the U.S. and its citizens do?

  3. China at a Glance • Area : 3.7 million square miles • Population :  1.3 billion (2006 estimate) • Age Structure 0 - 14 years 23% 15 - 64 years 69% 65+ years 8% • Workforce 20051998 Total (millions) 711 700 Agriculture 50% 60% Industry and Commerce 25% 25% Others 27% 15% • Arable Land 10% Source: various

  4. China at a Glance (cont’d) • Real GDP Growth  10% per annum last 5 years • Per Capita GDP = $1,720 in 2005 • Per Capita GDP (PPP) = $6,270 in 2005 • Trade (2005) • Export  $760 billion • Import  $660 billion • Urbanization 40% Source: various

  5. What drives China’s development? • Political stability and need for political control paramount • Competent technocrat-led government • Willingness to experiment and reform, albeit cautiously • Aspirations of the people • The Chinese Diaspora • Role of Hong Kong • Export-led economy • Regional not national

  6. Is China half full or half empty? A China Score Card Can China sustain such development?

  7. Can China accomplish its stated goals? China’s New Slogans • Five Balances and creating a harmonious society • Domestic vs International • Inland vs Coast • Rural vs Urban • Society vs Economy • Nature vs Man • Foreign Policy • “Peaceful rise to great power status”

  8. Will China be the next super power? * Assume constant 10% growth ** Assume constant 8% growth *** Assume constant 3.5% growth

  9. Challenges facing China’s future development; A race against time? • Political freedom vs economic freedom; Can China become democratic? And in what form? • Aging population; will China get old before it gets rich? • Energy and resource sufficiency and efficiency • Environmental degradation/pollution • Rich vs Poor • Civil society and its value systems • Financial systems reform

  10. What kind of China will the world face?

  11. Real Estate Industry : Two-way opportunities

  12. What can America and its citizens do? China Scenarios in 2030 Implications for the U.S. • The U.S. cannot afford a failed China • America has the greatest influence on China • Foreign policy • Cross-cultural exchange • Investment/Trade • Immigration • Engage, engage, and engage at grass root levels Strong Learning to live with the gorilla? Responsible citizen of the world? Economic Development Potential instability China : Muddling giant Weak Hostile Friendly Regime Friendliness

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