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Hassan Mashriqui Seann Reed Cecile Aschwanden Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD)

Toward Modeling of River-Estuary-Ocean Interactions to Enhance Operational River Forecasting in the NOAA National Weather Service. Hassan Mashriqui Seann Reed Cecile Aschwanden Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) National Weather Service (NWS) 4 March, 2009. Acknowledgement.

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Hassan Mashriqui Seann Reed Cecile Aschwanden Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD)

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  1. Toward Modeling of River-Estuary-Ocean Interactions to Enhance Operational River Forecasting in the NOAA National Weather Service Hassan Mashriqui Seann Reed Cecile Aschwanden Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) National Weather Service (NWS) 4 March, 2009

  2. Acknowledgement • Jon Janowicz • Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Region 3 • Kevin Hlywiak • Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC), NWS

  3. Current NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Service Delivery 13 River Forecast Centers (Colored) 122 Weather Forecast Offices (Outlined in Black) 3

  4. Current Forecast Hydrographs

  5. MARFC SERFC Coastal Areas Outside the Forecast Zones LMRFC

  6. River-Estuary-Ocean (REO) Interactions Estuary Freshwater Ocean Often we use numerical models to simulate these complex coastal environments

  7. Model Types • 1D models – HEC-RAS/FLDWAV, SOBEK, MIKE 11 • 2D models – ADCIRC, MIKE 21, SELFE • 3D models – CBOFS2, SELFE, DELFT3D, MIKE 3D

  8. River-Estuary-Ocean (REO) Interactions Modeling River MARFC Daily Forecast Boundary River Freshwater Estuary Interactions River Ocean Tide & Wind

  9. The Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) • Operational forecast system by Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS)/Coastal Survey Development Lab (CSDL) since August 2001 • Nowcast and forecast Water Level • Nowcast and forecast Wind • Forecast for the ports within Baltimore Harbor and Hampton Roads.

  10. Little Falls near Washington, DCMARFC’s Forecast Pointon the Potomac River Inflow boundary for the CBOFS is 7 miles from Little Falls forecast point

  11. Model Geometry is Important Error due to inaccurate boundary

  12. The Potomac River 1D HEC-RAS

  13. 1936 Potomac River Flood

  14. 1D HEC-RAS allows bridges to be coded in the model to determine the backwater effects. Many 2D/3D models do not have this capability

  15. HEC-RAS simulated water level profiles for the Potomac River near Washington DC Chain Bridge near DC

  16. Potomac River HEC-RAS domain

  17. Hurricane Isabel, 2003 HEC-RAS will simulate water level near DC Boundary Condition from CBOFS or SLOSH

  18. HEC-RAS test simulation without freshwater inflow or wind forcing. Boundary tide at Lewisetta, Va and simulated water level near Washington DC Predicted water level near Washington DC Stage (ft) Input water level near Lewisetta, Va September 2003

  19. Summary1D – Fast, ready to use, accounts for bridges2D/3D – Better physics, complexApplication – depends on the customer need, project location etc.

  20. Thank you

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