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The CAFE baseline Summary

M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W. Winiwarter, W. Sch öpp. Scope for further emission reductions: The range between Current Legislation and Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions. The CAFE baseline Summary.

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The CAFE baseline Summary

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  1. M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W. Winiwarter,W. Schöpp Scope for further emission reductions:The range between Current Legislation and Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions

  2. The CAFE baseline Summary

  3. Economic driversassumed for the PRIMES energy projections

  4. Land-based emissions CAFE “With climate measures” baseline, EU-25

  5. The Maximum Technically Feasible Emission Reductions (MTFR)

  6. General assumptions for the MTFR analysis • All calculations for 2020 • Based on CAFE “with climate measures” baseline scenario • MTFR assumes: • Full application of measures included in RAINS database (following IPPC BREF notes) • No premature scrapping and no retrofitting beyond current legislation • Maximum reductions also applied in non-EU countries and sea regions • All impact assessments for 1997 meteorology

  7. Scope for further improvements

  8. Long-term trends of EU-25 emissions“With climate measures” projection, relative to year 2000 [= 100%]

  9. Scope for further technical emission reductionsCAFE “with climate measures” baseline, EU-25

  10. Impact assessment

  11. Impact assessments • Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM • Premature deaths attributable to ozone • Vegetation damage from ozone (AOT40) • Excess of critical loads for acidification for forest soils • Excess of critical loads for acidification for semi-natural ecosystems • Excess of critical loads for acidification for lakes • Excess of critical loads for eutrophication

  12. Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5[µg/m3] • 2020 2020 • CLE MTFR Contributions of primary and secondary inorganic aerosols to PM2.5 Excluding secondary organic and natural aerosols Calculations for 1997 meteorology, grid average results

  13. First results from City-Delta Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5, 2000 [µg/m3] Grid average vs. urban increments

  14. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] • 2020 2020 • Current legislationMTFR Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Calculations for 1997 meteorology Provisional estimates with generic assumption on urban increment of PM

  15. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Provisional estimates with generic assumption on urban increment of PM

  16. Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases per year] Provisional estimates based on grid average ozone concentrations, 1997 meteorology

  17. Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsAOT40 [ppm.hours] • 2020 2020 • Current legislationMTFR Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Calculations for 1997 meteorology

  18. Acid deposition to forests • 2020 2020 • Current legislationMTFR Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Calculation for 1997 meteorology

  19. Acid deposition to forests% of forest area with acid deposition above CL

  20. Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas • 2020 2020 • Current legislationMTFR Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads using ecosystem-specific deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology

  21. Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas [% of ecosystems area]

  22. Acid deposition to freshwater bodies • 2020 2020 • Current legislationMTFR Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology

  23. Acid deposition to freshwater bodiesPercentage of catchments area with acid deposition above CL

  24. Excess of critical loads for eutrophication • 2020 2020 • Current legislationMTFR Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads using grid-average deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology

  25. Excess of critical loads for eutrophicationPercentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above CL

  26. Uncertainties Four types of uncertainties: • Gaps in scientific understanding • See RAINS review • Model design, assumptions and simplifications • Deliberate attempt to be cautious • Statistical uncertainties of input data • E.g., inter-annual meteorological variability • Quantification would need more work • Uncertainties in socio-economic drivers • E.g., energy projections: • National projections • Illustrative climate scenario (carbon price 90 €/t CO2)

  27. CO2 emissions 2015relative to 2000

  28. Scope for further technical emission reductions“Illustrative climate” vs. “with climate measures” scenario, EU-25 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5 2000 CLE-2020 "with climate measures" CLE 2020 "Illustrative climate" MTFR-2020 "with climate measures" MTFR 2020 "Illustrative climate"

  29. Conclusions • There is scope for further emission reductions: • Starting from the “with climate measures” PRIMES projection, relatively little AQ improvements from more aggressive climate policies • Significant scope from further technical measures beyond current legislation • Different regions in Europe experience different problems

  30. More information • The RAINS model on the web: www.iiasa.ac.at/rains • The seminar on the RAINS methodology: January 20-21, 2005 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (more info on the RAINS web site) • RAINS documentation, data, review on the web: www.iiasa.ac.at/rains

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