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The Future of Transport Demand

The Future of Transport Demand. EIA 2009 Energy Conference: A New Climate for Energy April 7-8, 2009 www.eia.doe.gov. Determinants of Transportation Energy Use. Demand for Mobility: A growing economy requires greater access to people, services, and markets, including labor markets.

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The Future of Transport Demand

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  1. The Future of Transport Demand EIA 2009 Energy Conference: A New Climate for Energy April 7-8, 2009 www.eia.doe.gov

  2. Determinants of Transportation Energy Use • Demand for Mobility: A growing economy requires greater access to people, services, and markets, including labor markets. Land-use policies can greatly affect the level and type of transportation services required and energy consumed • Transport Modes Emphasized: Non-motorized, motorized, virtual (internet)

  3. Determinants of Transportation Energy Use, Cont. C. Technology • Vehicle Efficiency • Car-Miles per Gallon • Bus-Miles per Gallon • Passenger Efficiency (load factor) • Passenger-Miles per Car Vehicle-Mile • Passenger-Miles per Bus Vehicle-Mile • Technology Efficiency • Car Passenger-Miles per Gallon • Bus Passenger-Miles per Gallon

  4. Projecting the Future of Transport Demand in the Long Term • Is the Past Prologue? What will the future look like? • How will access to markets, services, and people be provided in the future? • How will urban form affect the future demand for mobility? • Will the role of public transport continue to decline in today’s rapidly developing Asian economies? Will non-motorized transport disappear with economic development? • Will oil continue to be the primary transport fuel? • If vehicle efficiency is the only policy tool considered, can we tell a plausible economic growth/ mobility/ and fuel consumption story for the rapidly developing non-OECD nations?

  5. The Future of Transport Demand Presentation Order Moderator: Andy S. Kydes Speakers: • Lew Fulton • David Greene • Lee Schipper

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