The AVOID Programme and Climate Change Scenarios Providing key advice to UK Government

1. The AVOID Programme and Climate Change Scenarios Providing key advice to UK Government on avoiding dangerous climate change Jason Lowe, Met Office Rachel Warren, Tyndall Centre and UEA Nigel Arnell, Walker Institute www.avoid.uk.net AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

2. WS1 WS2 WS3 Identify priority projects Information on the Bali Action Plan Year 1 AVOID within LWEC Year 2 Building links with other projects outside AVOID External face Filling gaps in climate mitigation science and examining uncertainties Year 3 Year 4 Communication, Outreach and Knowledge Transfer Project Manager and Knowledge Integrator AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

3. AVOID quantifies and communicates the avoided impacts and residual impacts for a range of mitigation policies Emissions AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

4. AVOID quantifies and communicates the avoided impacts and residual impacts for a range of mitigation policies Impacts on physical systems Climate change Impacts on human systems Emissions AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

5. AVOID will also consider how emissions reductions might be achieved Costs Technology Emissions AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

6. Analysis of global emissions trajectories • AVOID examined variations in: • The year of peak emissions (2014 to 2030) • The emission rates leading up to the peak (BAU) • The emissions reduction rate following peak emissions (1 to 5% per year) • The net long-term level of emissions (zero to high levels) Business-as-usual scenario 1 2 3 Policy scenario 4 AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

7. Summary of emissions pathway results • How is a 2°C target defined? • It is possible to limit warming to 2°C but challenging to do so. Early action maximizes chance of achieving this. • There is some limited flexibility in the 2020 target but emissions after 2050 matter too, especially if we care about warming post 2100. • Global average temperature is only an indicator! AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

8. How is a 2°C target defined? • Period of achieving target? • Up to 2100 • Up to 2200 • For ever (up to 2500) • Pre-industrial baseline? • Risk of exceeding target – 50%? AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

9. Summary of emissions pathway results • How is a 2°C target defined? • It is possible to limit warming to 2°C but challenging to do so. Early action maximizes chance of achieving this. • There is some limited flexibility in the 2020 target but emissions after 2050 matter too, especially if we care about warming post 2100. • Global average temperature is only an indicator! AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

10. It is possible to limit warming to 2°C but challenging to do Median case AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

11. It is possible to limit warming to 2°C but challenging to do 2018 Median case AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

12. It is possible to limit warming to 2°C but challenging to do 2021 Median case AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

13. It is possible to limit warming to 2°C but challenging to do 90th percentile case AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

14. It is possible to limit warming to 2°C but challenging to do 2018 90th percentile case AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

15. Summary of emissions pathway results • How is a 2°C target defined? • It is possible to limit warming to 2°C but challenging to do so. Early action maximizes chance of achieving this. • There is some limited flexibility in the 2020 target but emissions after 2050 matter too, especially if we care about warming post 2100. • Global average temperature is only an indicator! AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

16. There is some limited flexibility in the 2020 target Range excluding 6%/yr reduction and zero floor limited to 50 GtCO2e/yr

17. Emissions after 2050 also matter Emissions floor of 11 GtCO2e/yr Zero emissions floor AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

18. Summary of emissions pathway results • How is a 2°C target defined? • It is possible to limit warming to 2°C but challenging to do so. Early action maximizes chance of achieving this. • There is some limited flexibility in the 2020 target but emissions after 2050 matter too, especially if we care about warming post 2100. • Global average temperature is only an indicator! AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

19. Regional warming for 2°C and 4°C of global average warming

20. Sea level is projected to rise AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

21. Sea level is projected to rise AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

22. The degree of ocean acidification is projected to increase T Tyrrell, NOCS AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

23. The degree of ocean acidification is projected to increase AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

24. Accelerated and/or irreversible change remains an issue AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

25. Mitigation lowers the risk of triggering these accelerated or irreversible changes 5°C 2°C Probability of staying below 2°C raised from zero to around 50% Probability of staying below 3°C raised from 7% to >90% Probability of staying below 5°C raised from 80% to almost 100%

26. Now Dr Rachel Warren will present further material on the impacts AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs