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US Nuclear Policy in a Changing Political Environment

Washington Office. US Nuclear Policy in a Changing Political Environment. Craig Piercy ANS Washington Representative November 20, 2008. “The Monster” A Pessimist’s View. Obama on Nuclear.

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US Nuclear Policy in a Changing Political Environment

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  1. Washington Office US Nuclear Policy in a Changing Political Environment Craig Piercy ANS Washington Representative November 20, 2008

  2. “The Monster”A Pessimist’s View

  3. Obama on Nuclear “I start off with the premise that nuclear energy is not optimal. I am not a nuclear energy proponent.” Remarks at Town Hall Event, Newton, IA, 12/30/07

  4. What is “safe nuclear power?” • Containment structures hardened against aircraft impact? • All spent fuel in dry cask storage? • More guards, bigger guns? • Additional fire protection, etc.

  5. Obama on Yucca Mountain “The selection of Yucca Mountain has failed, the time for debate on this site is over, and it is time to start exploring new alternatives for safe, long-term solutions based on sound science. .” October 2007 Letter to Sens. Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer

  6. NRC Commissioners ? Commissioner *Vertical lines are June 30th of each year President Obama

  7. More bad news… • Financial/credit crisis continues… • Waxman ousts Dingell from House Energy and Commerce Cmte. Chair. • Nuclear approps battles ahead • Senate close to 60 vote supermajority • Loan guarantees delayed/uncertain • Enviro groups challenging NRC DC/COL processes: North Anna (VA), Victoria (TX), Harris (NC). • Waste confidence/standard contract?

  8. The US nuclear moratorium 1978 last nuclear plant order in US 1979 last 2 construction permits issued 1993 last operating license issued 1995 last 2 orders cancelled 259 Reactors ordered 124 Cancelled orders 132 Operating licenses issued 28 Plants shut down 104 Operating plants today 36 Nuclear Engineering programs terminated No geological repository No commercial recycling

  9. 1.0 Japan France UK U.S. Canada Germany Australia Russia China 0.6 India Pakistan 0.3 4,000 8,000 12,000 Annual Electricity Use kWh/Capita Access to energy = quality of life 80% of the world’s population is below 0.8 on the UN’s Human Development Index (HDI)

  10. Pessimist’s View Assumptions: • Yucca derailed. • Hopes trump realities on climate legislation. • Hill/DOE Bias against federal financial assistance for new builds. • Risk averse/interventionalist NRC Result: • 5-10 year delay for new plants.

  11. “The Birds”An Optimist’s View

  12. People are OK with nuclear power… Bisconti Research with GfK

  13. … and think we should build more plants Bisconti Research with GfK

  14. “We will establish strong annual targets that set us on a course to reduce emissions to their 1990 levels by 2020 and reduce them an additional 80% by 2050.“Further, we will invest $15 billion each year to catalyze private sector efforts to build a clean energy future. We will invest in solar power, wind power, and next generation biofuels. We will tap nuclear power, while making sure it’s safe. And we will develop clean coal technologies. .” (emphasis added) Obama’s latest comment on nuclear • Address to the Governors' Global Climate Summit • November 18, 2008

  15. The Climate is Warming

  16. low carbon Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions GHGgCeq/kWh Source: Sokolov, IAEA, 2005

  17. EPRI PRISM Report

  18. What about the nuclear waste ? “3 yards and no cloud of dust”

  19. Optimist’s View Assumptions: • Tacit understanding that nuclear expansion is critical to carbon control. • “Do No Harm” approach to licensing regulation and finance. • Loan guarantee availability. Result: • Slow initial growth, followed by acceleration.

  20. If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses • — Henry Ford “The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Really smart people with reasonable funding can do just about anything that doesn't violate too many of Newton's Laws!” — Alan Kay

  21. Resources • www.ans.org • www.nuclearadvocacynetwork.org/ • neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com/ • fedappts@ans.org

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