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Generation to be Dispatched(GTBD) Analysis

Generation to be Dispatched(GTBD) Analysis. PDCWG/QMWG Joint Meeting 11/02/2012. Discussion Points. Zonal/Nodal Regulation Deployment statistics Regulation Deployment and Recall Short-Term Load Forecast and Projected Load Ramp Rate (PLRR)

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Generation to be Dispatched(GTBD) Analysis

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  1. Generation to be Dispatched(GTBD) Analysis PDCWG/QMWG Joint Meeting 11/02/2012 For the purpose of discussion only

  2. Discussion Points Zonal/Nodal Regulation Deployment statistics Regulation Deployment and Recall Short-Term Load Forecast and Projected Load Ramp Rate (PLRR) Analysis of Regulation Deployment (June 2012 to Aug 2012) Discuss different GTBD calculation options including the one proposed by NPRR 486 Statistical Analysis of different methods of calculating GTBD with August and September data Summary For the purpose of discussion only

  3. Zonal/Nodal Regulation Deployment Statistics For the purpose of discussion only

  4. Regulation Deployment – Example 1 For the purpose of discussion only

  5. Regulation Deployment – Example 2 For the purpose of discussion only

  6. Short Term Load Forecast and PLRR For the purpose of discussion only

  7. Analysis of Regulation Deployment For the purpose of discussion only

  8. Analysis of Regulation Deployment……..continued For the purpose of discussion only

  9. Underlying inputs for GTBD Calculation Current GTBD Calculation Total Gen + 1.1*5 *Projected Load Ramp Rate (PLRR) GTBD1 (proposed per NPRR-486) Total UDBP + Total Regulation Deployed + 1.1*5*PLRR GTBD2 (modification includes using regulation-bias factor and modified K3) Total Gen + 1.2*5*PLRR +0.1*Regulation Deployed GTBD3 (increased K3) Total Gen+1.3*5*PLRR For the purpose of discussion only

  10. Statistical evaluation of GTBD calculation For the purpose of discussion only

  11. Statistical evaluation of GTBD calculation….(continued) For the purpose of discussion only

  12. Statistical evaluation of GTBD calculation….(continued) For the purpose of discussion only

  13. Summary & Suggestions Slide showing Regulation-Analysis reflects small bias toward usage of Regulation-Up Service for all durations Regulation usage duration from 14:00 to 18:00 hours is greatly biased towards the usage of Regulation-Up service Statistical Analysis of GTBD-Load (Error) reflects, the current GTBD error is very close to the probability of zero mean of the error (which is 0.5 for normal distribution) Statistical Analysis shows that the GTBD calculation proposed through NPRR 486, increases Standard deviation of error, increase the mean of average error and reduces the probability of zero mean error away from 0.5 compared to all other options. ERCOT Suggests that changes in the GTBD calculation be made as reflected in GTBD2 calculation. Regulation contribution to GTBD be tuned with the weighing factor . The Regulation contribution should be a rolling average value. ERCOT believes that Step 5, “Regulation Recall based on pending base-point” functionality and some LFC tuning will help improve the regulation bias issue. For the purpose of discussion only

  14. Questions?? For the purpose of discussion only

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