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2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. Forward-Looking Statements.
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2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010
Forward-Looking Statements This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include without limitation any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain the words “believe,” “anticipate,” “expect,” “estimate,” “intend,” “project,” “plan,” “will likely continue,” “will likely result,” or words or phrases with similar meaning. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including without limitation economic, competitive, governmental and technological factors outside of our control, that may cause our business, strategy or actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements include without limitation: • Our substantial level of indebtedness • Changes in the supply of, demand for, or prices of our products • General economic and business conditions in the United States and Canada and elsewhere • The ability of our customers to continue as a going concern, including our ability to collect accounts receivable according to customary business terms • The activities of competitors, including those that may be engaged in unfair trade practices • Changes in significant operating expenses, including raw material and energy costs • Changes in currency exchange rates • Changes in the availability of capital • Changes in the regulatory environment, including requirements for enhanced environmental compliance • Other risks and uncertainties detailed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission The Company does not intend, and undertakes no obligation, to update any forward-looking statements.
Sales and Capacity Have Both Declined Since 2007 1978 to 2Q10 US Coated Paper Sales Quarterly Volume ‘000 tons ’85 – ‘86 ’90 – ‘91 ’95 – ‘97 ’01 – ‘03 ’07 – ‘09 (12)% (19)% (7)% (34)% (13)% US Coated Sales US Capacity Recovery Period “Peak to Peak” (Months) = Recession Source: RISI North American Graphic Paper Quarterly Historical Data, 2Q10 estimate using AF&PA Stats July 2010 Note: Coated sales = US coated paper shipments plus imports less exports
US Coated Paper Utilization Rates Mill Inventory Reductions Drive Utilization Over 100% 90% Utilization Rate Industry Capacity utilization levels now exceed 100% Source: RISI Paper Trader Note: Utilization = US mill sales divided by US mill capacity
NewPage Total Volume – Current Trends Up 8% (Tons in 000s) Up 29% Up 31% 2Q10 volume up 29% year over year and up 8% against prior quarter 1 February sales per day normalized to 31 day month
CFS & CGW Shipments (Tons in 000s) NewPage Industry 2Q10 vs 2Q09 Up 38% 2Q10 vs 2Q09 Up 27% 2Q10 vs 1Q10 Up 5% 2Q10 vs 1Q10 Up 12% 1Q 2Q 1Q 2Q 1Q 2Q 1Q 2Q NewPage volume growth continues to outpace the industry Source: July 2010 RISI Paper Trader; Non seasonally adjusted CFS and CGW shipments
North American Mills Paper Inventory Million Tons Days of Supply Tons on Hand Days of Supply Mill inventory days on hand at lows since 2003 … 9 days on hand lower than a year ago … a 28% decrease Data source: PPPC & AF&PA Last Data Point: May 10
Printer and Merchant Inventories Printer Inventory1 CFS & CGW Merchant CFS Inventory2 (Tons in 000s) (Tons in 000s) Down (46)% From 3Q08 Peak Down (28)% From 1Q08 Peak 458,000 Tons 5 -year average 646,000 Tons 5 -year average Inventories remain at historic lows Source: 1IDE Alliance 2 AF&PA *Note: 2010-Q2 based on April and May data only
End User Environment Monthlies Ad Pages … Up 7.9% June 2010 Year Over Year Commercial Printing & Support … Up Since Low Point In March 2010 Demand Index; 2007 = 1 % change year over year Source: Media Industry Newsletter Source: RISI June 2010 Paper Trader Both ad pages & commercial printing demand increasing
Summary • Realized volume improvement as NewPage CFS & CGW shipments are up 38% year-over-year and industry volume has improved 27% over the same period • Inventories throughout the supply chain remain very low and utilization rates are now over 100% • End use demand improving … ad pages, commercial print and educational book demand up year-over-year • We have announced price increases effective 3Q 2010, reflecting higher demand, improved utilization and input cost recovery
David PrystashSenior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
2Q10 Key Metrics * 2Q 2009 includes pulp downtime of $8MM; 1Q 2010 includes pulp downtime of $0.4MM ** Available liquidity = cash + available revolver balance; Amount would be $163MM without consideration of $50MM minimum availability requirement *** Net Debt = Total debt less cash
EBITDA – 2Q 2010 vs. 1Q 2010 $ Millions 12 Total Cost Productivity See reconciliation between Adjusted EBITDA and net loss attributable to the company in appendix
EBITDA – 2Q 2010 vs. 2Q 2009 $ Millions See reconciliation between Adjusted EBITDA and net loss attributable to the company in appendix
Key Working Capital Components • Accounts Receivable • Days outstanding improved by three days • Inventory • Reduced finished goods inventory • Accounts Payable • Days payable increased by one day. Balance increase primarily related to higher production levels and related purchases. ¹Does not include accrued expenses and other liabilities ²Days are calculated using current and prior quarter’s actual average along with current quarter COGS (INV), current quarter COGP less DD&A (AP) or current quarter Sales (AR)
2Q10 Adj. EBITDA to Total Cash Generated * Working capital comprised of accounts receivable, inventory and accounts payable
Treasury: Liquidity • Continue to pursue monetization of nonstrategic assets * Available liquidity = cash + available revolver balance; Amount at June 30, 2010 would be $170MM without consideration of $50MM minimum availability requirement
A replay of the call can be accessed via telephone (888) 266-2081 (toll-free domestic) or (703) 925-2533 (international), access code 1413360. The replay will be available starting at 2 p.m. (ET) on August 5, 2010 and will remain available until midnight (ET) on September 9, 2010.
Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to EBITDA 1 EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are not measures of our performance under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (“GAAP”), are not intended to represent net income (loss) attributable to NewPage, and should not be used as an alternative to net income (loss) attributable to NewPage as an indicator of performance. EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are shown because they are a primary component of certain covenants under our revolving senior secured credit facility and are a basis upon which our management assesses performance. In addition, our management believes EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are useful to investors because they and similar measures are frequently used by securities analysts, investors and other interested parties in the evaluation of companies with substantial financial leverage. The use of EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA instead of net income (loss) attributable to NewPage have limitations as an analytical tool, and you should not consider them in isolation, or as a substitute for analysis of our results as reported under GAAP. 2 Integration and related severance $10MM, equity award $3MM, pension expense $13MM 3 (Gain) loss on disposal and impairment of assets $6MM, equity award expense $8MM, pension expense $9MM, other non-cash costs $2MM 4(Gain) loss on disposal of assets $2MM, equity award expense $11MM, pension expense $8MM, integration and related severance costs $2MM, other non-cash costs $1MM
Historic Volume and Price Trends (a) (b) (a) We acquired the printing and writing papers business of MeadWestvaco Corporation effective as of April 30, 2005. The data includes the combined results of the predecessor and successor. (b) We acquired Stora Enso North America Inc. as of December 21, 2007. The data includes the results from the date of acquisition.